{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 30.48, 50.48 (76 VNF sites): 8 cluster(s), up to 25 nights","summary":"8 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 25 nights (max 33.44 MW). 8 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[50.619,30.396]},"bbox":[50.22,29.79,51.09,30.76],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e","name":"Flare field IRN 30.48, 50.48 (76 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_50.4845e_30.4845n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:22:52.189Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"8 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.233 BCM, 0.47 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.233,"vnfMatched":8}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[50.22,29.79,51.09,30.76],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"8 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 25 nights, max 33.44 MW at 30.3958, 50.619.","values":{"hotNightDetections":359,"maxFrp":57.63,"maxNights":25,"persistentClusters":8,"vnfMatched":8,"vnfTopBcm":0.233,"vnfTopKm":0.47,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-5f9c-75b2-9294-21e3a69fb093","findingId":"01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:45.788Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"5457b1c9d5aca3af5c78de3dcab4eb4256e3ba7895481893233ca149b295064b","kind":"narrated","text":"Eight persistent night-time heat sources burning in an Iranian flare field, one lit 25 of 30 nights\n\nBetween 28 August and 26 September 2026, night-time infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites recorded 359 hot-night detections in a known oil and gas flare field near 30.48N, 50.48E. These grouped into 8 clusters that each burned at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of 30 nights. The most persistent burned on 25 nights, with a peak reading of 33.44 MW at that spot; the strongest single reading anywhere in the field was 57.63 MW. All 8 clusters sit on sites listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the largest of which reported 0.233 billion cubic metres and lies 0.47 km away.\n\nThis is a steady industrial heat signature, not a wildfire or a new event. Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or kiln; persistence plus the flare-site match is what argues for flaring. Heat is also not volume — the sensor saturates on the biggest flares, and unlit venting is invisible entirely.\n\nWe would revise if the clusters fall outside registered flare infrastructure, if methane sensors show no matching plumes, or if a cloudy month explains gaps in the nightly record.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent clusters: 8 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit (most persistent cluster): 25 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 359 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Maximum FRP (MW): 57.63 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching 2024 VNF flare sites: 8 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e]\n- Top VNF site volume (BCM, 2024): 0.233 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e]\n- Distance to top VNF site (km): 0.47 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal data cannot distinguish a gas flare from a refinery furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.\n- Fire radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares and volumes come only from the annual VNF summary.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so persistence counts can be undercounts.\n- Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); brief or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- The 2024 VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year — it proves the site is a known flare, not this month's activity.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"9e1b0bd142fdf7ac7e01af53dfb35a3b467d83256275b84143f2bf5ac5d994be","transcriptSha256":"b9457f740e8b9850002a63828f2e9628667c02223587f419b52ee34a96095a56","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-789a-764c-913a-69419c893185","findingId":"01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:52.187Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"69a88d1af8923c1f6631f1e9792c4d32d01f2b1ce862003c337068c1b8263059","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (359 detections, 8 clusters, 25 nights, 33.44 and 57.63 MW, VNF 0.233 BCM, 0.47 km) match the evidence and confirmation signal values exactly.; Narration and caveats faithfully reflect the blind spots list: sensor confusion with other heat sources, FRP vs volume, cloud undercounting, revisit gaps, annual VNF vs current activity, and lack of attribution.; No individuals are named; only a discovered AOI and site coordinates are referenced.; AOI is tagged 'flaring/oil-gas/discovered/irn', control:false, so this is not a control site and the finding is a plausible flaring detection with strong corroborating VNF match.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:45.788Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:52.187Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:52.189Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"4dccc956cff15b5974b20037479f7f12c02684ee779bcf16baab2f0663b1937f"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df7f-93df-7c81-869c-889bb9e0d098","findingId":"01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 30.48, 50.48 (76 VNF sites): 8 cluster(s), up to 25 nights","summary":"8 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 25 nights (max 33.44 MW). 8 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[50.619,30.396]},"bbox":[50.22,29.79,51.09,30.76],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e","name":"Flare field IRN 30.48, 50.48 (76 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_50.4845e_30.4845n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[50.22,29.79,51.09,30.76],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"8 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 25 nights, max 33.44 MW at 30.3958, 50.619.","values":{"hotNightDetections":359,"maxFrp":57.63,"maxNights":25,"persistentClusters":8,"vnfMatched":8,"vnfTopBcm":0.233,"vnfTopKm":0.47,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df7f-93e5-7d2b-8d01-d6a4e7419c8f","findingId":"01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"ba8768b90c50717c1f257c9160b1f3279023070c19d81fc47480e45c87a836b2","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"8 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.233 BCM, 0.47 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.233,"vnfMatched":8}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-5f9c-75b2-9294-21e3a69fb093","findingId":"01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:45.788Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"5457b1c9d5aca3af5c78de3dcab4eb4256e3ba7895481893233ca149b295064b","kind":"narrated","text":"Eight persistent night-time heat sources burning in an Iranian flare field, one lit 25 of 30 nights\n\nBetween 28 August and 26 September 2026, night-time infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites recorded 359 hot-night detections in a known oil and gas flare field near 30.48N, 50.48E. These grouped into 8 clusters that each burned at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of 30 nights. The most persistent burned on 25 nights, with a peak reading of 33.44 MW at that spot; the strongest single reading anywhere in the field was 57.63 MW. All 8 clusters sit on sites listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the largest of which reported 0.233 billion cubic metres and lies 0.47 km away.\n\nThis is a steady industrial heat signature, not a wildfire or a new event. Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or kiln; persistence plus the flare-site match is what argues for flaring. Heat is also not volume — the sensor saturates on the biggest flares, and unlit venting is invisible entirely.\n\nWe would revise if the clusters fall outside registered flare infrastructure, if methane sensors show no matching plumes, or if a cloudy month explains gaps in the nightly record.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent clusters: 8 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit (most persistent cluster): 25 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 359 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Maximum FRP (MW): 57.63 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching 2024 VNF flare sites: 8 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e]\n- Top VNF site volume (BCM, 2024): 0.233 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e]\n- Distance to top VNF site (km): 0.47 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal data cannot distinguish a gas flare from a refinery furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.\n- Fire radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares and volumes come only from the annual VNF summary.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so persistence counts can be undercounts.\n- Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); brief or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- The 2024 VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year — it proves the site is a known flare, not this month's activity.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"9e1b0bd142fdf7ac7e01af53dfb35a3b467d83256275b84143f2bf5ac5d994be","transcriptSha256":"b9457f740e8b9850002a63828f2e9628667c02223587f419b52ee34a96095a56","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-789a-764c-913a-69419c893185","findingId":"01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:52.187Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"69a88d1af8923c1f6631f1e9792c4d32d01f2b1ce862003c337068c1b8263059","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (359 detections, 8 clusters, 25 nights, 33.44 and 57.63 MW, VNF 0.233 BCM, 0.47 km) match the evidence and confirmation signal values exactly.; Narration and caveats faithfully reflect the blind spots list: sensor confusion with other heat sources, FRP vs volume, cloud undercounting, revisit gaps, annual VNF vs current activity, and lack of attribution.; No individuals are named; only a discovered AOI and site coordinates are referenced.; AOI is tagged 'flaring/oil-gas/discovered/irn', control:false, so this is not a control site and the finding is a plausible flaring detection with strong corroborating VNF match.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-789d-71ce-8690-c685581060bf","findingId":"01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:52.189Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"3464fddf52d04742bb4aba43a6b7c56c305e1f550c09c9da6ce07479debe2d8a","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":145,"leafHash":"7f6d9f8d8dc37936f99ca5554c425b87643e51a2f2c7e36b1e01dcb141f85e4d","proof":["0276e7bfbf08ca8c05b4651e8a807cb6f1d343fe8c10f007dc654ba8e67898ce","c658ff95cdcdf621d7f23cc4f48960e764df8fe86fc035acb0f80ae30a9787bb","b33c1f8e02ea003c334a6069e4abab35bda0e0f32845baae19a736ca2752c801","091987b67514d05c82bdfea6d21d966a076edd1e18382a6c96bfd4716be39ffd","7213f06b8d14ed3a5b1156a9a9f6238adf157cc0c75ba48bad6be9c01e35759f","ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d","1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}