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Published

Rumaila oil field: 18 night-time heat clusters burn on, one lit 29 of 30 nights

Rumaila field (Basra, Iraq) · seen · published

Night-time satellite passes over the Rumaila field in Basra, Iraq picked up 18 heat clusters that were lit with a fire radiative power of at least 5 MW on five or more of the 30 nights from 28 August to 26 September 2026. The steadiest cluster was lit on 29 of those nights, peaking at 57.09 MW, and the month produced 1724 hot-night detections in total. Independently, 17 of the 18 clusters fall on sites already listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary — the top match 0.32 km away, credited with 0.185 billion cubic metres that year.

What this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or a kiln, so it is persistence plus the known-flare match that argues 'flare'. The 2024 record proves the site is a flare site, not that this month's burning is new. Fire radiative power is not volume — the sensor saturates on the biggest flames. Unlit venting and cold methane releases stay invisible here.

What would change our mind: a cloudy or smoky month that hides nights and fakes a shutdown, methane data from S5P or EMIT showing venting instead, or ground records reclassifying these clusters as industrial heat.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Rumaila field (Basra, Iraq), with the finding area outlined
30.50°N 47.30°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • NASA fire detections — 18 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 57.09 MW at 30.2109, 47.3914. (Sep 25, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — 17 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.185 BCM, 0.32 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary. (Dec 31, 2024) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace or kiln; the VNF site match carries the interpretation.
  • The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not this month's activity.
  • FRP is not flared volume; the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares.
  • Cloud or smoke hides nights and can make a flare look switched off.
  • Only two passes per night near 01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring in between is missed.
  • Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to this method.
  • No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.
  • Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.
  • Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.
  • FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.
  • Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.
  • No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.
  • Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.
  • The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — NASA fire detections, then Gas-flare detections (VIIRS Nightfire) — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

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Ledger id 01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
flaring v1.0
Tier
T2
Tags
flaring, oil-gas, iraq
Confirmed
Yes — independent provider signal, 2026-09-26
Rule FP rate
0 % · 0 of 1 decided
Location
30.50°N 47.30°E
Observed
2026-09-25
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule flaring v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertfirms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt

18 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 57.09 MW at 30.2109, 47.3914.

hotNightDetections 1724maxFrp 79.55maxNights 29persistentClusters 18vnfMatched 17vnfTopBcm 0.185vnfTopKm 0.32vnfYear 2024
· flaring v1.0 · firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26
Source ↗
recordeog-vnf-annualConfirming signal

17 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.185 BCM, 0.32 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.

bcm 0.185vnfMatched 17
· flaring v1.0 · eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different provider (eog-vnf-annual), 2026-09-26 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 2 needed at tier 2 — not met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-26 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule flaring v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule flaring v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 23 entries
Signed root
98f501ea7b18…03d8f3
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#22 of 23 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
9fbab0bf80df…1bc0f1
Proof
3-hash audit path
  1. e17e9157facbd50f9b7630c3b8f2bdf9785024f2169bc44818bc3658248c3126
  2. 1384a534e4d3e3e61d486e473b59995f82313683887db6a39f0dac2377f33137
  3. 6a8a05cc54fce463ec63f3d2ee5e255281d73a9e62067e21183d8aaba8315ff8
Last event
fb04f3e0b682…cd88ac
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
23
mPUB6nsYl6cXwueotNRJ80TfqTTMx5TVtGhn118D2PM=

— earthdeck TkCXv+gZUFrKQuTIDCzT//Iq9xayLZfvnv5RpOdRIxrlavfIeuQLP1bP0LmnSltfP2nqDAADjxr7nksOwDgNrIZCXwc=

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