{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Rumaila field (Basra, Iraq): 18 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"18 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 57.09 MW). 17 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.391,30.211]},"bbox":[47,30.2,47.6,30.8],"aoi":{"id":"iq-rumaila","name":"Rumaila field (Basra, Iraq)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","iraq"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T19:52:25.045Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T19:53:02.718Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T19:52:25.045Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"17 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.185 BCM, 0.32 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.185,"vnfMatched":17}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47,30.2,47.6,30.8],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"18 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 57.09 MW at 30.2109, 47.3914.","values":{"hotNightDetections":1724,"maxFrp":79.55,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":18,"vnfMatched":17,"vnfTopBcm":0.185,"vnfTopKm":0.32,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df47-2ac2-729c-8ea1-474d7ccfd00d","findingId":"01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f","at":"2026-09-26T19:52:58.306Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"c49d27003fc901e6a5e30d306f4e4bad697cdd0d322555e1e150c3b8281f0f44","kind":"narrated","text":"Rumaila oil field: 18 night-time heat clusters burn on, one lit 29 of 30 nights\n\nNight-time satellite passes over the Rumaila field in Basra, Iraq picked up 18 heat clusters that were lit with a fire radiative power of at least 5 MW on five or more of the 30 nights from 28 August to 26 September 2026. The steadiest cluster was lit on 29 of those nights, peaking at 57.09 MW, and the month produced 1724 hot-night detections in total. Independently, 17 of the 18 clusters fall on sites already listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary — the top match 0.32 km away, credited with 0.185 billion cubic metres that year.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or a kiln, so it is persistence plus the known-flare match that argues 'flare'. The 2024 record proves the site is a flare site, not that this month's burning is new. Fire radiative power is not volume — the sensor saturates on the biggest flames. Unlit venting and cold methane releases stay invisible here.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloudy or smoky month that hides nights and fakes a shutdown, methane data from S5P or EMIT showing venting instead, or ground records reclassifying these clusters as industrial heat.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time clusters: 18 [firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak FRP of top cluster (MW): 57.09 [firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in the 30-day window: 1724 [firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching known VNF 2024 flare sites: 17 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila]\n- Top matched site's 2024 flared volume (BCM): 0.185 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace or kiln; the VNF site match carries the interpretation.\n- The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not this month's activity.\n- FRP is not flared volume; the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights and can make a flare look switched off.\n- Only two passes per night near 01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring in between is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to this method.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"be3f5178a24a0cd97d75aee3371f0d4dc07a59655ee133d9558be4779dfd83e6","transcriptSha256":"520bc10265c82e719803ccdffab882c6230c0510a5ea4691bea5d858b63f234f","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df47-3bfc-7cc2-a235-f8ea8f7f68e5","findingId":"01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f","at":"2026-09-26T19:53:02.716Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"615fba4a4d2d6c2578dad96c6c6973db0fd70b9419e1a639bc38df1f4c70509d","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (18 clusters, 29 nights, 57.09 MW, 1724 detections, 17 VNF matches, 0.185 BCM, 0.32 km) match the evidence exactly; Narration transparently covers blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, VNF is a past-year aggregate not current confirmation, FRP≠volume, cloud/smoke masking, venting invisibility, no attribution — closely mirroring the finding's blindSpots list; No individuals or companies are named, only the field and general operator-neutral language; AOI is tagged oil-gas/flaring/iraq, control:false, consistent with a real (non-control) site","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T19:52:25.045Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T19:52:25.045Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T19:52:58.306Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T19:53:02.716Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T19:53:02.718Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"fb04f3e0b6823c34837a397967ffeb81358dd53570ca31e122a668187ecd88ac"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df46-b82d-7e67-8c9c-53b8d81aded9","findingId":"01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f","at":"2026-09-26T19:52:25.045Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Rumaila field (Basra, Iraq): 18 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"18 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 57.09 MW). 17 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.391,30.211]},"bbox":[47,30.2,47.6,30.8],"aoi":{"id":"iq-rumaila","name":"Rumaila field (Basra, Iraq)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","iraq"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47,30.2,47.6,30.8],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"18 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 57.09 MW at 30.2109, 47.3914.","values":{"hotNightDetections":1724,"maxFrp":79.55,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":18,"vnfMatched":17,"vnfTopBcm":0.185,"vnfTopKm":0.32,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df46-b833-7fca-9346-f68926051d9a","findingId":"01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f","at":"2026-09-26T19:52:25.045Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"5dee3e756accaa2b60e1075e0ab99b97644aad93ba786a5ab78d3834e22c8669","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"17 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.185 BCM, 0.32 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.185,"vnfMatched":17}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df47-2ac2-729c-8ea1-474d7ccfd00d","findingId":"01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f","at":"2026-09-26T19:52:58.306Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"c49d27003fc901e6a5e30d306f4e4bad697cdd0d322555e1e150c3b8281f0f44","kind":"narrated","text":"Rumaila oil field: 18 night-time heat clusters burn on, one lit 29 of 30 nights\n\nNight-time satellite passes over the Rumaila field in Basra, Iraq picked up 18 heat clusters that were lit with a fire radiative power of at least 5 MW on five or more of the 30 nights from 28 August to 26 September 2026. The steadiest cluster was lit on 29 of those nights, peaking at 57.09 MW, and the month produced 1724 hot-night detections in total. Independently, 17 of the 18 clusters fall on sites already listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary — the top match 0.32 km away, credited with 0.185 billion cubic metres that year.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or a kiln, so it is persistence plus the known-flare match that argues 'flare'. The 2024 record proves the site is a flare site, not that this month's burning is new. Fire radiative power is not volume — the sensor saturates on the biggest flames. Unlit venting and cold methane releases stay invisible here.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloudy or smoky month that hides nights and fakes a shutdown, methane data from S5P or EMIT showing venting instead, or ground records reclassifying these clusters as industrial heat.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time clusters: 18 [firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak FRP of top cluster (MW): 57.09 [firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in the 30-day window: 1724 [firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching known VNF 2024 flare sites: 17 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila]\n- Top matched site's 2024 flared volume (BCM): 0.185 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace or kiln; the VNF site match carries the interpretation.\n- The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not this month's activity.\n- FRP is not flared volume; the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights and can make a flare look switched off.\n- Only two passes per night near 01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring in between is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to this method.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"be3f5178a24a0cd97d75aee3371f0d4dc07a59655ee133d9558be4779dfd83e6","transcriptSha256":"520bc10265c82e719803ccdffab882c6230c0510a5ea4691bea5d858b63f234f","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df47-3bfc-7cc2-a235-f8ea8f7f68e5","findingId":"01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f","at":"2026-09-26T19:53:02.716Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"615fba4a4d2d6c2578dad96c6c6973db0fd70b9419e1a639bc38df1f4c70509d","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (18 clusters, 29 nights, 57.09 MW, 1724 detections, 17 VNF matches, 0.185 BCM, 0.32 km) match the evidence exactly; Narration transparently covers blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, VNF is a past-year aggregate not current confirmation, FRP≠volume, cloud/smoke masking, venting invisibility, no attribution — closely mirroring the finding's blindSpots list; No individuals or companies are named, only the field and general operator-neutral language; AOI is tagged oil-gas/flaring/iraq, control:false, consistent with a real (non-control) site","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df47-3bfe-7e80-92f2-4b90e0e933fb","findingId":"01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f","at":"2026-09-26T19:53:02.718Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"aa2797f8a74650279b99bf4d38787667c00b1eeab8e62204e382aa8b423a55d9","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":22,"leafHash":"9fbab0bf80dfa7fa2383fc96a70516597d30aec9998d076b0ad250b5951bc0f1","proof":["a182753ab7b9e021a19e706a89e890dd5bf27624669dd7cc4c96786ce0da394c","e17e9157facbd50f9b7630c3b8f2bdf9785024f2169bc44818bc3658248c3126","1384a534e4d3e3e61d486e473b59995f82313683887db6a39f0dac2377f33137","209c671c4222f61a0563d54bf44a552baf5d95ad637afb708baae1f8e648354f","6a8a05cc54fce463ec63f3d2ee5e255281d73a9e62067e21183d8aaba8315ff8","0302bcdf8d6bb623cb8928d22b0ff4e64a73a5a52a81857d508cf26e1f25b3b7","75fd50de0c9b3fe611e59afb656c3ca6773466bcefa237da18aa9a99aca9f0d0","05046f78c3a46031098f9c3c9786c51df89f43d7fad6e64f7ef56b1223e6a01a"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}