Forest loss, Jaú National Park core (AM, Brazil): 19.33 ha in 90 d
Jaú National Park core (AM, Brazil) · seen
1571 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 19.33 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 1.519× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.
What we saw
- Area: 19 hectares — about 27 football fields
- Global Forest Watch alerts — 1571 alerts (≥ high confidence), 19.33 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗
What it might not be
- Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.
- Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).
- Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.
- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.
- Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate').
What would change our mind
Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.
Why this is not published
Never published: on a closer look it turned out wrong. It stays on this site so mistakes are counted, not hidden.
Right of reply
If a case names or affects you, you can reply. A reply channel that keeps both sides on record is being set up; until then, every case page carries its ledger id so a reply can be attached to it.
Ledger id 01a0deeb-0a8f-7a1f-ab5f-6f410b0d2275
Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
- Rule
- forest_loss v1.0
- Tier
- T1
- Tags
- control, amazon, control
- Confirmed
- Not yet — single signal
- Rule FP rate
- 20 % · 2 of 10 decided
- Location
- 1.95°S 62.25°W
- Observed
- 2026-09-26
- Opened
- 2026-09-26 by automatic rule forest_loss v1.0
- candidate
- false positive
Evidence1
1571 alerts (≥ high confidence), 19.33 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.
Context
- AOI
- 77.32
- Ring
- 50.907
- Metric
- alert ha per deg²
- CONTROL AOI: expected quiet — this finding counts against the rule's error rate
Publication gates
- Evidence — 1 piece from gfw-integrated-alerts — met
- Independent confirmation — not yet — not met
- Human approval — 0 of 1 needed at tier 1 — not met
Publication is decided by the ledger’s rules, not by the AI: the event that publishes a finding is refused unless every gate above is met.
History2
- status changed → false positiveAI model
- created → candidateautomatic rule forest_loss v1.0
Verify
Checked in your browser just now, against the files this site serves:
- Checkpoint signed by the published ledger key (Ed25519)
- This case’s latest event is in the log’s hash tile
- Its audit path rebuilds the signed Merkle root
- Checkpoint
- earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 164 entries
- Signed root
dee55129d595…ff9240- This case
- 2 signed events
- Leaf
- #10 of 164 — this case’s latest event
- Leaf hash
d342402fb67e…9db851- Proof
8-hash audit path
- 6333f299c8e552dad2b6119a679e8044d0473a099534f7d6a8bd52d343baeb7d
- 69c8843e680c5bde08f8d62db037451af7fb3aec0ff57da2df08065f336cc6e4
- fb282b597f11571537a5c62abf5ee03eb5c710cecf931dee27a92f33ab5f5fd5
- 26fb30453e28c43d71f1119e5e1add72de6b3c28c1202a557be9ab963856f5d7
- 39fdc31209a3e868896af0b700ab7bfb246d5b718dcc5ae8040e8f1af02cc9e9
- 0302bcdf8d6bb623cb8928d22b0ff4e64a73a5a52a81857d508cf26e1f25b3b7
- 75fd50de0c9b3fe611e59afb656c3ca6773466bcefa237da18aa9a99aca9f0d0
- 05046f78c3a46031098f9c3c9786c51df89f43d7fad6e64f7ef56b1223e6a01a
- Last event
bd3264ff8564…b6558a- Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 164 3uVRKdWVACCMvWGLLrloPsdgo2FcJrOlejRp8Ir/kkA= — earthdeck TkCXv1RvXauCpUiWuk11ZCqwdoBJwbds1eETDZCkAWnWOFvcgHuHpllz0Q9kEbLx6iBG7M0UPs+Ejc/MfFN6WPWxNQA=
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npx -y earthdeck ledger verify --remote https://vitalearth.io