{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0deeb-0a8f-7a1f-ab5f-6f410b0d2275","status":"false_positive","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":50,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":5,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Jaú National Park core (AM, Brazil): 19.33 ha in 90 d","summary":"1571 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 19.33 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 1.519× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-62.5,-2.2],[-62,-2.2],[-62,-1.7],[-62.5,-1.7],[-62.5,-2.2]]]},"bbox":[-62.5,-2.2,-62,-1.7],"aoi":{"id":"ctl-br-jau-core","name":"Jaú National Park core (AM, Brazil)","tags":["control","amazon","control"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":77.32,"regionalValue":50.907,"ratio":1.519},"notes":["CONTROL AOI: expected quiet — this finding counts against the rule's error rate"]},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T18:15:28.185Z","createdBy":"system:forest_loss@1.0","confirmed":null,"evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-ctl-br-jau-core-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-62.5,-2.2,-62,-1.7],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"1571 alerts (≥ high confidence), 19.33 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.","values":{"alerts":1571,"ha":19.33,"high_alerts":1314,"high_ha":16.17,"highest_alerts":257,"highest_ha":3.16}}],"attribution":null,"narration":null,"reviews":[],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:15:28.185Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"false_positive","actor":"model:claude-fable-5-1"}],"eventCount":2,"lastEventHash":"bd3264ff8564d6f1fa0cbbe6d5cf103b31942e9fbc05655c49a863d59fb6558a"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0deeb-0a8f-7daa-97aa-944bcd212e30","findingId":"01a0deeb-0a8f-7a1f-ab5f-6f410b0d2275","at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":50,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":5,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Jaú National Park core (AM, Brazil): 19.33 ha in 90 d","summary":"1571 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 19.33 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 1.519× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-62.5,-2.2],[-62,-2.2],[-62,-1.7],[-62.5,-1.7],[-62.5,-2.2]]]},"bbox":[-62.5,-2.2,-62,-1.7],"aoi":{"id":"ctl-br-jau-core","name":"Jaú National Park core (AM, Brazil)","tags":["control","amazon","control"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-ctl-br-jau-core-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-62.5,-2.2,-62,-1.7],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"1571 alerts (≥ high confidence), 19.33 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.","values":{"alerts":1571,"ha":19.33,"high_alerts":1314,"high_ha":16.17,"highest_alerts":257,"highest_ha":3.16}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":77.32,"regionalValue":50.907,"ratio":1.519},"notes":["CONTROL AOI: expected quiet — this finding counts against the rule's error rate"]},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0deed-e6b9-7962-b965-3fb33d6bd803","findingId":"01a0deeb-0a8f-7a1f-ab5f-6f410b0d2275","at":"2026-09-26T18:15:28.185Z","actor":"model:claude-fable-5-1","prev":"df9ec295cf52e2063ef02a37a5e67be4eb76e55a2c11c2dd9a2216159d307c9b","kind":"status_changed","from":"candidate","to":"false_positive","reason":"Control AOI fired at detect stage on 1571 high-confidence alerts / 19.3 ha in 90 d — radar alerts on seasonal floodplain water in an intact park core, never confirmed by NDVI. Control thresholds raised to minAlerts 300 / minHa 25 after this first live sweep (2026-09-26)."}],"inclusion":{"index":10,"leafHash":"d342402fb67ee6c99afe4fa76fea6ff5ccf1f83409e157864dfa2fc73d9db851","proof":["6333f299c8e552dad2b6119a679e8044d0473a099534f7d6a8bd52d343baeb7d","69c8843e680c5bde08f8d62db037451af7fb3aec0ff57da2df08065f336cc6e4","fb282b597f11571537a5c62abf5ee03eb5c710cecf931dee27a92f33ab5f5fd5","26fb30453e28c43d71f1119e5e1add72de6b3c28c1202a557be9ab963856f5d7","39fdc31209a3e868896af0b700ab7bfb246d5b718dcc5ae8040e8f1af02cc9e9","0302bcdf8d6bb623cb8928d22b0ff4e64a73a5a52a81857d508cf26e1f25b3b7","75fd50de0c9b3fe611e59afb656c3ca6773466bcefa237da18aa9a99aca9f0d0","05046f78c3a46031098f9c3c9786c51df89f43d7fad6e64f7ef56b1223e6a01a"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}