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Published

727 ha of forest alerts along the BR-163 corridor near Novo Progresso, backed by a drop in greenness

Novo Progresso / BR-163 corridor (PA) · seen · published

Between 28 June and 26 September 2026, satellite alert systems logged 59527 high-confidence deforestation alerts across the Novo Progresso / BR-163 corridor in Pará, covering 727.07 ha. Of those, 52920 alerts (646.38 ha) are rated high confidence and 6607 alerts (80.7 ha) highest confidence. A separate sensor agrees: Sentinel-2 median-composite greenness (NDVI) fell -0.169 between 14 May and 26 September, with 94% and 100% valid pixels in the two composites. Alert density sits at 1.108 times the surrounding 25 km ring (2908.28 versus 2624.87 alert ha per deg²) — elevated, but not far above an already active neighbourhood.

What this is not: the alerts cannot separate legal clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging from unauthorised clearing, and no cause is assigned here. The season is El Niño (ONI 1.8), which can dry canopies and deepen NDVI losses without any tree removal; regrowth and harvest cycles can also mimic loss. No nearby natural events were recorded.

What would change our mind: high-resolution imagery showing intact canopy, burn scars rather than cut edges, concession or protected-area layers, or a greenness rebound in the next composite.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Novo Progresso / BR-163 corridor (PA), with the finding area outlined
7.15°S 55.35°WNASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • Area: 727 hectares — about 1,000 football fields
  • Global Forest Watch alerts — 59527 alerts (≥ high confidence), 727.07 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Sentinel-2 satellite images — Median-composite NDVI changed -0.169 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 94% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object] (Sep 26, 2026)

What it might not be

  • Alerts cannot tell clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging apart.
  • El Niño drying can lower NDVI without tree loss.
  • Alerts lag events by about 1–2 weeks, so recent clearing may be undercounted.
  • Density is only 1.108× the surrounding ring — the wider area is already active.
  • Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can resemble loss.
  • Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.
  • Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).
  • Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.
  • Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.
  • Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate').

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — Global Forest Watch alerts, then Sentinel-2 satellite images — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

If a case names or affects you, you can reply. A reply channel that keeps both sides on record is being set up; until then, every case page carries its ledger id so a reply can be attached to it.

Ledger id 01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
forest_loss v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
amazon, brazil, road-corridor
Confirmed
Yes — independent sensor signal, 2026-09-26
Rule FP rate
50 % · 2 of 4 decided
Location
7.15°S 55.35°W
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule forest_loss v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertgfw-integrated-alerts

59527 alerts (≥ high confidence), 727.07 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.

alerts 59527ha 727.07high_alerts 52920high_ha 646.38highest_alerts 6607highest_ha 80.7
· forest_alerts v1.0 · gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26
Source ↗
scenesentinel-2-l2aConfirming signal

Median-composite NDVI changed -0.169 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 94% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]

deltaNdvi -0.16871212382542977validPctA 94validPctB 100
· eo_compare v1.0 · s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26

Context

1.11×
AOI vs its 25 km neighbourhood
AOI
2908.28
Ring
2624.87
Metric
alert ha per deg²
ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from gfw-integrated-alerts — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different sensor (sentinel-2-l2a), 2026-09-26 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 1 needed at tier 1 — met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-26 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule forest_loss v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule forest_loss v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 23 entries
Signed root
98f501ea7b18…03d8f3
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#17 of 23 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
7c258b3fa1b2…c53bab
Proof
4-hash audit path
  1. bd07a96a5b7a2ef6725d8c61310eab18611d0f72a455a6bac822f23fa83fe372
  2. 57a8600898620c967cdb091efe84ff6ae508ab78a0058f82835a970711a53380
  3. 8ca7b6360b3087f0d9ec2ec14a0a30a4fee1ff7c7932f814b7788ec0dbc07b92
  4. 6a8a05cc54fce463ec63f3d2ee5e255281d73a9e62067e21183d8aaba8315ff8
Last event
f7f996e05c91…c25e4e
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
23
mPUB6nsYl6cXwueotNRJ80TfqTTMx5TVtGhn118D2PM=

— earthdeck TkCXv+gZUFrKQuTIDCzT//Iq9xayLZfvnv5RpOdRIxrlavfIeuQLP1bP0LmnSltfP2nqDAADjxr7nksOwDgNrIZCXwc=

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