{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":200,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":20,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Novo Progresso / BR-163 corridor (PA): 727.07 ha in 90 d","summary":"59527 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 727.07 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 1.108× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-55.6,-7.4],[-55.1,-7.4],[-55.1,-6.9],[-55.6,-6.9],[-55.6,-7.4]]]},"bbox":[-55.6,-7.4,-55.1,-6.9],"aoi":{"id":"br-novo-progresso-br163","name":"Novo Progresso / BR-163 corridor (PA)","tags":["amazon","brazil","road-corridor"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":2908.28,"regionalValue":2624.87,"ratio":1.108}},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T18:59:39.867Z","createdBy":"system:forest_loss@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","independence":"sensor","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-55.6,-7.4,-55.1,-6.9],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-14","dateB":"2026-09-26","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.169 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 94% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.16871212382542977,"validPctA":94,"validPctB":100}}},"evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-55.6,-7.4,-55.1,-6.9],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"59527 alerts (≥ high confidence), 727.07 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.","values":{"alerts":59527,"ha":727.07,"high_alerts":52920,"high_ha":646.38,"highest_alerts":6607,"highest_ha":80.7}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df16-4998-72c0-bdc7-3f864afa48e0","findingId":"01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:34.936Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"c7af4355379be3b806729a559ae14c5e0554764e27e9c1e0049d0fef8ac46cbe","kind":"narrated","text":"727 ha of forest alerts along the BR-163 corridor near Novo Progresso, backed by a drop in greenness\n\nBetween 28 June and 26 September 2026, satellite alert systems logged 59527 high-confidence deforestation alerts across the Novo Progresso / BR-163 corridor in Pará, covering 727.07 ha. Of those, 52920 alerts (646.38 ha) are rated high confidence and 6607 alerts (80.7 ha) highest confidence. A separate sensor agrees: Sentinel-2 median-composite greenness (NDVI) fell -0.169 between 14 May and 26 September, with 94% and 100% valid pixels in the two composites. Alert density sits at 1.108 times the surrounding 25 km ring (2908.28 versus 2624.87 alert ha per deg²) — elevated, but not far above an already active neighbourhood.\n\nWhat this is not: the alerts cannot separate legal clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging from unauthorised clearing, and no cause is assigned here. The season is El Niño (ONI 1.8), which can dry canopies and deepen NDVI losses without any tree removal; regrowth and harvest cycles can also mimic loss. No nearby natural events were recorded.\n\nWhat would change our mind: high-resolution imagery showing intact canopy, burn scars rather than cut edges, concession or protected-area layers, or a greenness rebound in the next composite.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Alerts (≥ high confidence): 59527 [gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Area flagged (ha): 727.07 [gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Highest-confidence area (ha): 80.7 [gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Change in median NDVI: -0.169 [s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 100 [s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Alerts cannot tell clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging apart.\n- El Niño drying can lower NDVI without tree loss.\n- Alerts lag events by about 1–2 weeks, so recent clearing may be undercounted.\n- Density is only 1.108× the surrounding ring — the wider area is already active.\n- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can resemble loss.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"11adba11d82cfb2c8374437e5ee69b2a2f7812ef13c05cb6ea191896ce7b9a63","transcriptSha256":"1e9db58ea5cd9a5ced27a588bf185c55d09d81b7d01e3ad3f6b345b57797bf15","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df16-5cd9-7189-90f7-b1abc6bf5751","findingId":"01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:39.865Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"e9e0f24036dcbd7c6396f3a5ce91625dec2e102c0c7c04553fc83847cb0d44ba","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (alerts, ha, confidence breakdowns, NDVI delta, valid pixel %, density ratio) match the evidence exactly.; Narration appropriately hedges attribution, citing El Niño drying, regrowth/harvest cycles, and inability to distinguish clearing causes, consistent with blind spots.; No individuals or identifiable persons are named.; AOI is correctly tagged non-control (tags: amazon, brazil, road-corridor; control:false), consistent with this being a genuine monitoring target rather than a control site.; Minor omission: the coverage-limit (30N-30S) and cloud-delay blind spots aren't mentioned, but the most salient caveats are covered, and confidence is honestly labeled medium.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:59:34.936Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:59:39.865Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:59:39.867Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"f7f996e05c91518938f763b7e3586d14b73c800913dfb87574d0188addc25e4e"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0deea-2ccf-7cfb-b8c2-0a020ce37c13","findingId":"01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b","at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":200,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":20,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Novo Progresso / BR-163 corridor (PA): 727.07 ha in 90 d","summary":"59527 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 727.07 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 1.108× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-55.6,-7.4],[-55.1,-7.4],[-55.1,-6.9],[-55.6,-6.9],[-55.6,-7.4]]]},"bbox":[-55.6,-7.4,-55.1,-6.9],"aoi":{"id":"br-novo-progresso-br163","name":"Novo Progresso / BR-163 corridor (PA)","tags":["amazon","brazil","road-corridor"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-55.6,-7.4,-55.1,-6.9],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"59527 alerts (≥ high confidence), 727.07 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.","values":{"alerts":59527,"ha":727.07,"high_alerts":52920,"high_ha":646.38,"highest_alerts":6607,"highest_ha":80.7}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":2908.28,"regionalValue":2624.87,"ratio":1.108}},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0deea-3bf0-7c19-9df2-043df0e5f8d9","findingId":"01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b","at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":"f261c8d2254f903bd48828412bc47cf82115aeb1fdcd90838f26f58d520acdbc","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-55.6,-7.4,-55.1,-6.9],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-14","dateB":"2026-09-26","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.169 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 94% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.16871212382542977,"validPctA":94,"validPctB":100}},"independence":"sensor"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df16-4998-72c0-bdc7-3f864afa48e0","findingId":"01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:34.936Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"c7af4355379be3b806729a559ae14c5e0554764e27e9c1e0049d0fef8ac46cbe","kind":"narrated","text":"727 ha of forest alerts along the BR-163 corridor near Novo Progresso, backed by a drop in greenness\n\nBetween 28 June and 26 September 2026, satellite alert systems logged 59527 high-confidence deforestation alerts across the Novo Progresso / BR-163 corridor in Pará, covering 727.07 ha. Of those, 52920 alerts (646.38 ha) are rated high confidence and 6607 alerts (80.7 ha) highest confidence. A separate sensor agrees: Sentinel-2 median-composite greenness (NDVI) fell -0.169 between 14 May and 26 September, with 94% and 100% valid pixels in the two composites. Alert density sits at 1.108 times the surrounding 25 km ring (2908.28 versus 2624.87 alert ha per deg²) — elevated, but not far above an already active neighbourhood.\n\nWhat this is not: the alerts cannot separate legal clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging from unauthorised clearing, and no cause is assigned here. The season is El Niño (ONI 1.8), which can dry canopies and deepen NDVI losses without any tree removal; regrowth and harvest cycles can also mimic loss. No nearby natural events were recorded.\n\nWhat would change our mind: high-resolution imagery showing intact canopy, burn scars rather than cut edges, concession or protected-area layers, or a greenness rebound in the next composite.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Alerts (≥ high confidence): 59527 [gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Area flagged (ha): 727.07 [gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Highest-confidence area (ha): 80.7 [gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Change in median NDVI: -0.169 [s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 100 [s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Alerts cannot tell clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging apart.\n- El Niño drying can lower NDVI without tree loss.\n- Alerts lag events by about 1–2 weeks, so recent clearing may be undercounted.\n- Density is only 1.108× the surrounding ring — the wider area is already active.\n- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can resemble loss.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"11adba11d82cfb2c8374437e5ee69b2a2f7812ef13c05cb6ea191896ce7b9a63","transcriptSha256":"1e9db58ea5cd9a5ced27a588bf185c55d09d81b7d01e3ad3f6b345b57797bf15","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df16-5cd9-7189-90f7-b1abc6bf5751","findingId":"01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:39.865Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"e9e0f24036dcbd7c6396f3a5ce91625dec2e102c0c7c04553fc83847cb0d44ba","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (alerts, ha, confidence breakdowns, NDVI delta, valid pixel %, density ratio) match the evidence exactly.; Narration appropriately hedges attribution, citing El Niño drying, regrowth/harvest cycles, and inability to distinguish clearing causes, consistent with blind spots.; No individuals or identifiable persons are named.; AOI is correctly tagged non-control (tags: amazon, brazil, road-corridor; control:false), consistent with this being a genuine monitoring target rather than a control site.; Minor omission: the coverage-limit (30N-30S) and cloud-delay blind spots aren't mentioned, but the most salient caveats are covered, and confidence is honestly labeled medium.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df16-5cdb-7834-b18f-64bf70bbf3c4","findingId":"01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:39.867Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"eece8fcaf607a6b3215de579fb75fc347d7b03977fee0fdc0e218d40bd0d27d4","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":17,"leafHash":"7c258b3fa1b214936619449b659a52ee50cbd01bcc2bdd383af14b863dc53bab","proof":["bd07a96a5b7a2ef6725d8c61310eab18611d0f72a455a6bac822f23fa83fe372","57a8600898620c967cdb091efe84ff6ae508ab78a0058f82835a970711a53380","53563f35dcc423f2f0f47c596ca2e078b7217de4a9b1ece237dc8e15b5cb8755","209c671c4222f61a0563d54bf44a552baf5d95ad637afb708baae1f8e648354f","6a8a05cc54fce463ec63f3d2ee5e255281d73a9e62067e21183d8aaba8315ff8","0302bcdf8d6bb623cb8928d22b0ff4e64a73a5a52a81857d508cf26e1f25b3b7","75fd50de0c9b3fe611e59afb656c3ca6773466bcefa237da18aa9a99aca9f0d0","05046f78c3a46031098f9c3c9786c51df89f43d7fad6e64f7ef56b1223e6a01a"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}