TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around Velasco, Santa Cruz (Bolivia) — tile 3/4, with the finding area outlined
16.43°S 61.48°WNASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

9,699 ha of Bolivian forest flagged in Velasco over 90 days, with satellite greenness drop confirming

Velasco, Santa Cruz (Bolivia) — tile 3/4 · seen · published

Between 30 June and 28 September 2026, integrated deforestation alerts recorded 819268 high-or-higher confidence detections across 9699.25 ha in tile 3/4 of Velasco, Santa Cruz, Bolivia. Of that, 5801.42 ha sits at high confidence and 3897.82 ha at the highest confidence level. An independent sensor check agrees: median-composite Sentinel-2 NDVI, a measure of live vegetation, fell -0.229 between 16 May and 28 September, with 100% valid pixels in both composites — so cloud is not hiding the picture here.

What this is not: the alerts cannot tell legal clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging apart from illegal clearing. That matters this season, because conditions are El Niño (ONI 1.8), when drought and fire can strip canopy without any clearing. Alert density here is only 1.074× the surrounding 12 km ring, so this tile resembles its neighbourhood rather than standing out. Plantation harvest and regrowth cycles can also mimic loss.

What would change our mind: burn-scar mapping showing fire, concession or protected-area layers showing permitted activity, or later imagery showing rapid green-up consistent with regrowth or seasonal dieback.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • Area: 9,699 hectares — about 14,000 football fields
  • Nature’s work at stake: about $65M a year (a rough estimate of what this land does for people — clean water, carbon, food).
  • Global Forest Watch alerts — 819268 alerts (≥ high confidence), 9699.25 ha, 2026-06-30…2026-09-28. (Sep 28, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Sentinel-2 satellite images — Median-composite NDVI changed -0.229 (2026-05-16 → 2026-09-28); valid pixels 100% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object] (Sep 28, 2026)

What it might not be

  • Cause unknown: fire, legal clearing, storm damage and selective logging all look alike in these alerts.
  • El Niño (ONI 1.8) raises the chance that drought or fire, not clearing, drives part of the greenness drop.
  • Alerts lag ground events by about 1–2 weeks, so any burst just before 28 September is undercounted.
  • Alert density is only 1.074× the 12 km neighbourhood — this is a busy region, not an isolated anomaly.
  • Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can register as loss; the baseline ring only partly corrects for this.
  • The dollar figures in the finding's notes are order-of-magnitude benefit transfers, not a market price or a loss estimate.
  • Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.
  • Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).
  • Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.
  • Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.
  • Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate').

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — Global Forest Watch alerts, then Sentinel-2 satellite images — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

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Ledger id 01a0e551-bae4-7b6d-9412-eaccbf96a9de

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
forest_loss v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
forest-hotspot, discovered, bol, bolivia, santa-cruz, velasco
Confirmed
Yes — independent sensor signal, 2026-09-28
Rule FP rate
33 % · 4 of 12 decided
Location
16.43°S 61.48°W
Observed
2026-09-28
Opened
2026-09-28 by automatic rule forest_loss v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence2

alertgfw-integrated-alerts

819268 alerts (≥ high confidence), 9699.25 ha, 2026-06-30…2026-09-28.

alerts 819268ha 9699.25high_alerts 490005high_ha 5801.42highest_alerts 329263highest_ha 3897.82living_value_100y_npv2_usd 2808269716living_value_100y_usd 6515956200living_value_usd_yr 65159562
· forest_alerts v1.0 · gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-3-2026-06-30..2026-09-28
Source ↗
scenesentinel-2-l2aConfirming signal

Median-composite NDVI changed -0.229 (2026-05-16 → 2026-09-28); valid pixels 100% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]

deltaNdvi -0.2286013821261399validPctA 100validPctB 100
· eo_compare v1.0 · s2-ndvi-median-bol-8-14-3-2026-05-16..2026-09-28

Context

1.07×
AOI vs its 12 km neighbourhood
AOI
3701.863
Ring
3447.152
Metric
alert ha per deg²
ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8
  • Living value (benefit transfer, order of magnitude): 9699.25 ha of tropical forest ≈ $65,159,562/yr alive (band $19,136,620–$252,442,380, 2020 USD), ≈ $6,515,956,200 over 100 yr ($2,808,269,716 NPV @ 2 %). Source: Costanza R. et al. et al. — a floor for one kind of value, not a price.

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from gfw-integrated-alerts — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different sensor (sentinel-2-l2a), 2026-09-28 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 1 needed at tier 1 — met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-28 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History5

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule forest_loss v1.0
  5. created → candidateautomatic rule forest_loss v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 714 entries
Signed root
23ed27dda9a2…5fec16
This case
5 signed events
Leaf
#689 of 714 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
4b0587b3113f…47d250
Proof
9-hash audit path
  1. 01a3e268942ab898cbfcfb92ec199222089596b54137a25aa21b49a4e044b48f
  2. cc3b6a93943026ec363964448148b522027c9226dda1d92f82a330f80085eafc
  3. e73b714623ca3c51edc8dec3d398981aac9f22b1cad5f7cccd86a51c06606f14
  4. 1a4096fef3f408fb9611c7ec6bd5555c2d3e4c444b2d4d1825a326726d13c72a
  5. 89ea47a2db6f92bde86a283891634b3c2ce72e93ad607587cac01f8e71117f35
  6. 7dca4cb46e918bc2462caff163cbc3833e9d56e1231ed15deafc73303f4232da
  7. 5539526203a0f9a3fe1a73a93ff155b59f2e165868d80dfa2e6993baad67874b
  8. 4dcd70c622d414afaa3e0c21c3cf5233386d63f463994a07fff4e5e92c390f72
  9. 5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1
Last event
47e75cdda51b…47b902
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
714
I+0n3ami2iq+Pb01ZzA9/W1AK7wHekeD5OebmHxf7BY=

— earthdeck TkCXv0OmAxDtzaj1At98wE5s0VUwWeSCBAVzEDOuLw2Ioh7cGCd8Por/k57n26y0m4mCTkkb6qIdr6CB1+b6NmG1wgc=

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