TerraKeepKeeping Earth within its limits
Cloud-free satellite view around Santiago (Chile), with the finding area outlined
33.45°S 70.67°WNASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area
Published

Santiago air: modelled PM2.5 at 68.7 µg/m³, 4.6× the WHO daily guideline, seven days running

Santiago (Chile) · seen · published

Modelled fine-particle pollution (PM2.5) over central Santiago averaged 68.7 µg/m³ for 26 September 2026 — 4.6 times the World Health Organization's 24-hour guideline of 15 µg/m³. Every one of the previous 7 full days was also above that line, averaging 45.9 µg/m³ with a worst day of 80.7 µg/m³. A later check on 27 September still showed 39.2 µg/m³, so this is a sustained episode rather than a one-day spike. Particles this small travel deep into the lungs.

What this is not: these figures come from the Copernicus CAMS global model at roughly 40 km resolution, not from a street-level monitor. The model smooths city hotspots and can misplace smoke or dust plumes, so the exact value over any neighbourhood may differ. Only PM2.5 is judged here — ozone, nitrogen dioxide and indoor air are not. The WHO figure is a health guideline, not a legal limit, and this record says a change was seen, not what caused it. Spring in the Santiago basin, under El Niño conditions, often traps air.

Ground monitor data from the city network, a CAMS revision, or daily means falling back below 15 µg/m³ would change the picture.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

What we saw

  • cams-global — CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 7 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-26 = 68.7. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗
  • cams-global — CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 7 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-27 = 32.4. (Sep 27, 2026) See the source ↗
  • cams-global — CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 8 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-28 = 27.4. (Sep 28, 2026) See the source ↗
  • cams-global — CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 8 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-29 = 23.6. (Sep 29, 2026) See the source ↗
  • cams-global — Still above 15 µg/m³ on 2026-09-27: 39.2 µg/m³ (8 days running). (Sep 27, 2026) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a ground monitor; city-scale hotspots are smoothed and plumes can be misplaced.
  • The confirmation is a later reading from the same CAMS feed (a revisit), not an independent instrument.
  • PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not assessed.
  • The WHO 15 µg/m³ figure is a health guideline, not a legal limit.
  • The finding records elevated concentrations, not their source or any responsible party.
  • Global model feeds can go stale or be revised after publication.
  • Air quality: CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a monitor; it smooths city hotspots and can misplace dust and smoke plumes.
  • Air quality: PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not judged, and the WHO guideline is a health line, not a legal limit.
  • All: global zero-key feeds can go stale or be revised; a threshold crossing is a signal to look, not a verdict on cause or impact.

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — cams-global, then cams-global — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Replies

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Ledger id 01a0e1f0-e4c4-7e65-9a19-65c751ff0afd

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
indicator_threshold v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
air-quality, city
Confirmed
Yes — independent revisit signal, 2026-09-27
Rule FP rate
11 % · 1 of 9 decided
Location
33.45°S 70.67°W
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-27 by automatic rule indicator_threshold v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence5

seriescams-global

CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 7 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-26 = 68.7.

days_over 7guideline_ugm3 15pm25_daily_ugm3 68.7pm25_max_ugm3 80.7pm25_mean_ugm3 45.9times_guideline 4.6
· indicator_threshold v1.0 · cams-pm25-air-santiago-2026-09-26
Source ↗
seriescams-global

CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 7 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-27 = 32.4.

days_over 7guideline_ugm3 15pm25_daily_ugm3 32.4pm25_max_ugm3 80.7pm25_mean_ugm3 47.6times_guideline 2.2
· indicator_threshold v1.0 · cams-pm25-air-santiago-2026-09-27
Source ↗
seriescams-global

CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 8 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-28 = 27.4.

days_over 8guideline_ugm3 15pm25_daily_ugm3 27.4pm25_max_ugm3 80.7pm25_mean_ugm3 45times_guideline 1.8
· indicator_threshold v1.0 · cams-pm25-air-santiago-2026-09-28
Source ↗
seriescams-global

CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 8 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-29 = 23.6.

days_over 8guideline_ugm3 15pm25_daily_ugm3 23.6pm25_max_ugm3 80.7pm25_mean_ugm3 45.5times_guideline 1.6
· indicator_threshold v1.0 · cams-pm25-air-santiago-2026-09-29
Source ↗
seriescams-globalConfirming signal

Still above 15 µg/m³ on 2026-09-27: 39.2 µg/m³ (8 days running).

days_over 8pm25_daily_ugm3 39.2
· indicator_threshold v1.0 · cams-pm25-air-santiago-2026-09-27-persist
Source ↗

Context

ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8
  • Dataset: Copernicus CAMS global forecast/analysis (~40 km) via Open-Meteo, hourly PM2.5 averaged to UTC days; last 7 days, forecast hours excluded.

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 4 pieces from cams-global — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different revisit (cams-global), 2026-09-27 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 1 needed at tier 1 — met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-30 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History8

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. evidence added → confirmedautomatic rule indicator_threshold v1.0
  5. evidence added → confirmedautomatic rule indicator_threshold v1.0
  6. evidence added → confirmedautomatic rule indicator_threshold v1.0
  7. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule indicator_threshold v1.0
  8. created → candidateautomatic rule indicator_threshold v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 971 entries
Signed root
65becba35e7b…cfb1ac
This case
8 signed events
Leaf
#952 of 971 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
3d49f6e6419d…f6024a
Proof
10-hash audit path
  1. ce4b2b6332c3b5db4044525e1169a52b99abd16fd71e2fa618d9421d5fccbcd0
  2. 0a0ebe1e51b0737ea0f4dbe4497a8bdbdce72bf8d938747ea430185a2993a8cc
  3. 4f99f736066a1d65d44475ffba8d8c0c5aeac86377deee569e0d5298830cab5a
  4. dd2c9fe6ae688c5475aff3e46cbdfeaf464df870ad3a941c7f428943a0ab02f3
  5. 0045955efc1ce8cbac08a8733861af830ac685c100ede195c387e074963da34e
  6. 881a017e2581f97da1c46804177dfd5f924565433e1166705255b96348abe25d
  7. a72c3339b408a45e95e937a87116707abc006bf01b9d03fe3f1a13fbcc11992a
  8. d4a69eb9bd4aba2b04a0c06f8365d5c370a5591fa80d0e8a9962a94eea222b01
  9. b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794
  10. 5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1
Last event
8405b494a8ea…e37a52
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
971
Zb7Lo157ettQqPmu0tm88BnWSkMC3ZJMEFFRbmvPsaw=

— earthdeck TkCXvy4ab1W8aoaOb+pzCGCDnG5hglritooG+HSh5E2eK5bX/GOa8ngRawRBFFq9xkoAkQHY2WV8CTtkhuUX2a2EhA8=

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