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Peixoto de Azevedo, Mato Grosso: 97489 forest-loss alerts over 1181.92 ha in 90 days

Peixoto de Azevedo, Mato Grosso (Brazil) — tile 2/2 · seen · published

Between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26, satellite alert systems flagged 97489 high-confidence deforestation alerts across 1181.92 hectares in this tile of Peixoto de Azevedo, Mato Grosso. An independent sensor check backs it up: Sentinel-2 median-composite greenness (NDVI) fell by -0.104 between May and late September, with 99% of pixels usable in both composites, so cloud is not hiding the picture. A second alert pull a day later returned a consistent 96205 alerts over 1166.36 ha.

What this is not, or may not be: the alerts do not say what removed the canopy. Fire, storm damage, selective logging, legally permitted clearing and plantation harvest or regrowth cycles all register the same way. The region is in an El Niño phase (ONI 1.8), and seasonal dryness alone can depress NDVI. Alert density here is 0.768x the surrounding 25 km ring — active, but below its neighbourhood.

What would change our mind: high-resolution optical or SAR imagery showing burn scars rather than cut edges; a rebound in NDVI in the next composite, indicating seasonal browning or regrowth; or concession and protected-area layers placing the change inside permitted operations.

Written by AI, then checked by a separate reviewer before publication. Every claim points at the evidence below.

Cloud-free satellite view around Peixoto de Azevedo, Mato Grosso (Brazil) — tile 2/2, with the finding area outlined
10.20°S 53.25°WNASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • Area: 1,182 hectares — about 1,700 football fields
  • Nature’s work at stake: about $7.9M a year (a rough estimate of what this land does for people — clean water, carbon, food).
  • Global Forest Watch alerts — 97489 alerts (≥ high confidence), 1181.92 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Global Forest Watch alerts — 96205 alerts (≥ high confidence), 1166.36 ha, 2026-06-29…2026-09-27. (Sep 27, 2026) See the source ↗
  • Sentinel-2 satellite images — Median-composite NDVI changed -0.104 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 99% / 99%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object] (Sep 26, 2026)

What it might not be

  • Alerts cannot separate legal clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging from unauthorised clearing; attribution needs concession and protected-area layers.
  • Alerts lag events by roughly 1-2 weeks, so a burst just before the cut-off is undercounted.
  • Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can look like loss; the 25 km baseline ring only partly compensates.
  • The NDVI drop of -0.104 is only marginally past the rule's 0.1 threshold, and El Nino-driven dryness can contribute to seasonal browning.
  • Alert coverage is limited to 30N-30S; absence of alerts elsewhere means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.
  • Living-value figures in the context notes are order-of-magnitude benefit transfers, not a market price, and are not asserted here.
  • Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.
  • Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).
  • Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.
  • Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.
  • Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate').

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this was published

Two separate sources agreed — Global Forest Watch alerts, then Sentinel-2 satellite images — and a reviewer checked the evidence before it went up.

Right of reply

If a case names or affects you, you can reply. A reply channel that keeps both sides on record is being set up; until then, every case page carries its ledger id so a reply can be attached to it.

Ledger id 01a0df85-c90c-74b4-b254-5f7cbfcea81d

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
forest_loss v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
forest-hotspot, discovered, bra, brazil, mato-grosso, peixoto-de-azevedo
Confirmed
Yes — independent sensor signal, 2026-09-26
Rule FP rate
40 % · 4 of 10 decided
Location
10.20°S 53.25°W
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule forest_loss v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence3

alertgfw-integrated-alerts

97489 alerts (≥ high confidence), 1181.92 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.

alerts 97489ha 1181.92high_alerts 96217high_ha 1166.5highest_alerts 1272highest_ha 15.42living_value_100y_npv2_usd 342206903living_value_100y_usd 794013900living_value_usd_yr 7940139
· forest_alerts v1.0 · gfw-integrated-bra-12-92-2-2026-06-28..2026-09-26
Source ↗
alertgfw-integrated-alerts

96205 alerts (≥ high confidence), 1166.36 ha, 2026-06-29…2026-09-27.

alerts 96205ha 1166.36high_alerts 95006high_ha 1151.83highest_alerts 1199highest_ha 14.54living_value_100y_npv2_usd 337701703living_value_100y_usd 783560600living_value_usd_yr 7835606
· forest_alerts v1.0 · gfw-integrated-bra-12-92-2-2026-06-29..2026-09-27
Source ↗
scenesentinel-2-l2aConfirming signal

Median-composite NDVI changed -0.104 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 99% / 99%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]

deltaNdvi -0.1042716195887381validPctA 99validPctB 99
· eo_compare v1.0 · s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-92-2-2026-05-14..2026-09-26

Context

0.77×
AOI vs its 25 km neighbourhood
AOI
792.304
Ring
1031.318
Metric
alert ha per deg²
ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8
  • Living value (benefit transfer, order of magnitude): 1181.92 ha of tropical forest ≈ $7,940,139/yr alive (band $2,331,928–$30,761,832, 2020 USD), ≈ $794,013,900 over 100 yr ($342,206,903 NPV @ 2 %). Source: Costanza R. et al. et al. — a floor for one kind of value, not a price.

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 2 pieces from gfw-integrated-alerts — met
  • Independent confirmation — a different sensor (sentinel-2-l2a), 2026-09-26 — met
  • Human approval — 1 of 1 needed at tier 1 — met
  • Narration — AI-drafted by claude-opus-5 — met
Published
2026-09-27 by AI model
Narrated By
AI model
Reviewed By
AI model
Policy
2026-09-26-autonomous
Note
autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)

History6

  1. status changed → publishedAI model
  2. reviewed → confirmedAI model
  3. narrated → confirmedAI model
  4. evidence added → confirmedautomatic rule forest_loss v1.0
  5. confirmed → confirmedautomatic rule forest_loss v1.0
  6. created → candidateautomatic rule forest_loss v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 474 entries
Signed root
3d5c0e5366ef…1a817d
This case
6 signed events
Leaf
#470 of 474 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
105e4c8c93bb…33939e
Proof
8-hash audit path
  1. 8fba3cc06a0534b3053bfdca843a59850e1cadabb49b06f59c4aae37a8d46140
  2. 70d1bd2f4705b9daca729cc3b67b37380e6c782418aac0d90955574a8e391e1c
  3. f0cad838e2998ef4a2feb947956b9a647120887f5efc8a2475d530fa473a85d4
  4. 493a714a42dd17792681ec1368d8c70cc4ff7767c1aa2584aaa0f3deb8ef6917
  5. f565081aeeeac1e7bf708524afa860f70d7cc95211e3d20c39f88709df60ffcc
  6. cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c
  7. 2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae
  8. 2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc
Last event
83dfd45ddbda…537f28
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
474
PVwOU2bv7a9jengu9r9j3dQn4kFgYu/+tvWa/eQagX0=

— earthdeck TkCXv/cvio9EAdvkzlL+Yd2YP4DpbJfAKLucFWpg9Lx0fsSq96qdwI14h8khEO0RbAZGTNPZZvO7btaXxroLJftBzwc=

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