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Turned out wrong

Forest loss, Salonga National Park core (DRC): 15.26 ha in 90 d

Salonga National Park core (DRC) · seen

1241 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 15.26 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 1.678× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.

Cloud-free satellite view around Salonga National Park core (DRC), with the finding area outlined
2.15°S 21.15°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • Area: 15 hectares — about 21 football fields
  • Global Forest Watch alerts — 1241 alerts (≥ high confidence), 15.26 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.
  • Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).
  • Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.
  • Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.
  • Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate').

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this is not published

Never published: on a closer look it turned out wrong. It stays on this site so mistakes are counted, not hidden.

Right of reply

If a case names or affects you, you can reply. A reply channel that keeps both sides on record is being set up; until then, every case page carries its ledger id so a reply can be attached to it.

Ledger id 01a0deeb-3bcb-7926-b5d2-1be98d6a86f6

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
forest_loss v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
control, congo-basin, control
Confirmed
Not yet — single signal
Rule FP rate
20 % · 2 of 10 decided
Location
2.15°S 21.15°E
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule forest_loss v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. false positive

Evidence1

alertgfw-integrated-alerts

1241 alerts (≥ high confidence), 15.26 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.

alerts 1241ha 15.26high_alerts 1241high_ha 15.26
· forest_alerts v1.0 · gfw-integrated-ctl-cd-salonga-core-2026-06-28..2026-09-26
Source ↗

Context

1.68×
AOI vs its 25 km neighbourhood
AOI
61.04
Ring
36.374
Metric
alert ha per deg²
ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8
  • CONTROL AOI: expected quiet — this finding counts against the rule's error rate

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from gfw-integrated-alerts — met
  • Independent confirmation — not yet — not met
  • Human approval — 0 of 1 needed at tier 1 — not met

Publication is decided by the ledger’s rules, not by the AI: the event that publishes a finding is refused unless every gate above is met.

History2

  1. status changed → false positiveAI model
  2. created → candidateautomatic rule forest_loss v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 164 entries
Signed root
dee55129d595…ff9240
This case
2 signed events
Leaf
#11 of 164 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
6333f299c8e5…baeb7d
Proof
8-hash audit path
  1. d342402fb67ee6c99afe4fa76fea6ff5ccf1f83409e157864dfa2fc73d9db851
  2. 69c8843e680c5bde08f8d62db037451af7fb3aec0ff57da2df08065f336cc6e4
  3. fb282b597f11571537a5c62abf5ee03eb5c710cecf931dee27a92f33ab5f5fd5
  4. 26fb30453e28c43d71f1119e5e1add72de6b3c28c1202a557be9ab963856f5d7
  5. 39fdc31209a3e868896af0b700ab7bfb246d5b718dcc5ae8040e8f1af02cc9e9
  6. 0302bcdf8d6bb623cb8928d22b0ff4e64a73a5a52a81857d508cf26e1f25b3b7
  7. 75fd50de0c9b3fe611e59afb656c3ca6773466bcefa237da18aa9a99aca9f0d0
  8. 05046f78c3a46031098f9c3c9786c51df89f43d7fad6e64f7ef56b1223e6a01a
Last event
858935fb5bb6…de23d3
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
164
3uVRKdWVACCMvWGLLrloPsdgo2FcJrOlejRp8Ir/kkA=

— earthdeck TkCXv1RvXauCpUiWuk11ZCqwdoBJwbds1eETDZCkAWnWOFvcgHuHpllz0Q9kEbLx6iBG7M0UPs+Ejc/MfFN6WPWxNQA=

Re-derive every entry, signature and trust rule yourself:

npx -y earthdeck ledger verify --remote https://vitalearth.io