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Forest loss, Tshopo, east of Kisangani (DRC): 408.45 ha in 90 d

Tshopo, east of Kisangani (DRC) · seen

33185 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 408.45 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 1.89× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.

Cloud-free satellite view around Tshopo, east of Kisangani (DRC), with the finding area outlined
0.55°N 25.65°ENASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • Area: 408 hectares — about 570 football fields
  • Global Forest Watch alerts — 33185 alerts (≥ high confidence), 408.45 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.
  • Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).
  • Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.
  • Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.
  • Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate').

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this is not published

Not published yet: only one source has seen this so far. We wait for a second, separate one before anything goes up.

Right of reply

If a case names or affects you, you can reply. A reply channel that keeps both sides on record is being set up; until then, every case page carries its ledger id so a reply can be attached to it.

Ledger id 01a0deea-a10c-7c5a-95d8-eb3c2945162c

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
forest_loss v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
congo-basin, drc, smallholder-frontier
Confirmed
Not yet — single signal
Rule FP rate
50 % · 2 of 4 decided
Location
0.55°N 25.65°E
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule forest_loss v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence1

alertgfw-integrated-alerts

33185 alerts (≥ high confidence), 408.45 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.

alerts 33185ha 408.45high_alerts 32999high_ha 406.16highest_alerts 186highest_ha 2.29
· forest_alerts v1.0 · gfw-integrated-cd-tshopo-kisangani-east-2026-06-28..2026-09-26
Source ↗

Context

1.89×
AOI vs its 25 km neighbourhood
AOI
1633.8
Ring
864.391
Metric
alert ha per deg²
ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from gfw-integrated-alerts — met
  • Independent confirmation — not yet — not met
  • Human approval — 0 of 1 needed at tier 1 — not met

Publication is decided by the ledger’s rules, not by the AI: the event that publishes a finding is refused unless every gate above is met.

History1

  1. created → candidateautomatic rule forest_loss v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 23 entries
Signed root
98f501ea7b18…03d8f3
This case
1 signed event
Leaf
#6 of 23 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
78a42a4389bd…7f5270
Proof
5-hash audit path
  1. 96975c2f515210325267b400855b432fca828e40cbbe55b36e39b52b50712d16
  2. 67d8ef003ca7f7c48c7b264b89981eb8cff0056112dcbfc1798c4159c8525009
  3. 6b10ad870347dc96d85c0d5bd2a41e9c927b32ab49197f7747a632045d200011
  4. 6598d797221b073b60d46aa844eae21088bc5544c00da73ede7396316fc56a5f
  5. 4a353bd4228873504ddacce3976e700a8f44051505c8db4cdd55e1d387e08c25
Last event
01715fda7fa9…ccafde
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
23
mPUB6nsYl6cXwueotNRJ80TfqTTMx5TVtGhn118D2PM=

— earthdeck TkCXv+gZUFrKQuTIDCzT//Iq9xayLZfvnv5RpOdRIxrlavfIeuQLP1bP0LmnSltfP2nqDAADjxr7nksOwDgNrIZCXwc=

Re-derive every entry, signature and trust rule yourself:

npx -y earthdeck ledger verify --remote https://vitalearth.io
Case events + proof (JSON)Signed checkpointPublic keyFull log (JSONL)