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Forest loss, Terra Indígena Kayapó (western edge): 15.84 ha in 60 d

Terra Indígena Kayapó (western edge) · seen

1299 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 15.84 ha between 2026-07-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 0.653× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.

Cloud-free satellite view around Terra Indígena Kayapó (western edge), with the finding area outlined
7.85°S 52.95°WNASA Blue Marble via GIBS · outline = finding area

What we saw

  • Area: 16 hectares — about 22 football fields
  • Global Forest Watch alerts — 1299 alerts (≥ high confidence), 15.84 ha, 2026-07-28…2026-09-26. (Sep 26, 2026) See the source ↗

What it might not be

  • Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.
  • Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).
  • Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.
  • Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.
  • Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate').

What would change our mind

Newer satellite images that show no change, a correction from the data source, or a reply with evidence from the ground. If that happens, the case is marked “Turned out wrong” — in public — and it stays on this site.

Why this is not published

Not published yet: only one source has seen this so far. We wait for a second, separate one before anything goes up.

Right of reply

If a case names or affects you, you can reply. A reply channel that keeps both sides on record is being set up; until then, every case page carries its ledger id so a reply can be attached to it.

Ledger id 01a0deea-5819-784b-a05a-b5af46b75edb

Technical details rule, evidence ids, history, proof
Rule
forest_loss v1.0
Tier
T1
Tags
amazon, brazil, indigenous-land
Confirmed
Not yet — single signal
Rule FP rate
50 % · 2 of 4 decided
Location
7.85°S 52.95°W
Observed
2026-09-26
Opened
2026-09-26 by automatic rule forest_loss v1.0
  1. candidate
  2. confirmed
  3. published
  4. resolved

Evidence1

alertgfw-integrated-alerts

1299 alerts (≥ high confidence), 15.84 ha, 2026-07-28…2026-09-26.

alerts 1299ha 15.84high_alerts 1298high_ha 15.83highest_alerts 1highest_ha 0.01
· forest_alerts v1.0 · gfw-integrated-br-ti-kayapo-west-2026-07-28..2026-09-26
Source ↗

Context

0.65×
AOI vs its 25 km neighbourhood
AOI
63.36
Ring
97.068
Metric
alert ha per deg²
ENSO El Niño · ONI +1.8

Publication gates

  • Evidence — 1 piece from gfw-integrated-alerts — met
  • Independent confirmation — not yet — not met
  • Human approval — 0 of 1 needed at tier 1 — not met

Publication is decided by the ledger’s rules, not by the AI: the event that publishes a finding is refused unless every gate above is met.

History1

  1. created → candidateautomatic rule forest_loss v1.0

Verify

Checkpoint
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1 · 23 entries
Signed root
98f501ea7b18…03d8f3
This case
1 signed event
Leaf
#4 of 23 — this case’s latest event
Leaf hash
5cc5c4e360d1…b5ee2c
Proof
5-hash audit path
  1. 8cbd2093fb03062601df83524ef5a40cb0d45a02eb5568278da2176585685657
  2. 7580be8692a306ccaecedd11414bced519cc504fbb8f16ddaf9a71cfe004b5fb
  3. 6b10ad870347dc96d85c0d5bd2a41e9c927b32ab49197f7747a632045d200011
  4. 6598d797221b073b60d46aa844eae21088bc5544c00da73ede7396316fc56a5f
  5. 4a353bd4228873504ddacce3976e700a8f44051505c8db4cdd55e1d387e08c25
Last event
1975b0029730…98e574
Note
Checkpoint text
earthdeck.dev/findings/v1
23
mPUB6nsYl6cXwueotNRJ80TfqTTMx5TVtGhn118D2PM=

— earthdeck TkCXv+gZUFrKQuTIDCzT//Iq9xayLZfvnv5RpOdRIxrlavfIeuQLP1bP0LmnSltfP2nqDAADjxr7nksOwDgNrIZCXwc=

Re-derive every entry, signature and trust rule yourself:

npx -y earthdeck ledger verify --remote https://vitalearth.io
Case events + proof (JSON)Signed checkpointPublic keyFull log (JSONL)