{"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:25:51.865Z","checkpoint":"earthdeck.dev/findings/v1\n164\n3uVRKdWVACCMvWGLLrloPsdgo2FcJrOlejRp8Ir/kkA=\n\n— earthdeck TkCXv1RvXauCpUiWuk11ZCqwdoBJwbds1eETDZCkAWnWOFvcgHuHpllz0Q9kEbLx6iBG7M0UPs+Ejc/MfFN6WPWxNQA=\n","count":12,"findings":[{"findingId":"01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 32.49, 47.21 (5 VNF sites): 3 cluster(s), up to 28 nights","summary":"3 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 28 nights (max 21.03 MW). 2 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.21,32.491]},"bbox":[47.09,32.26,47.54,32.6],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e","name":"Flare field IRN 32.49, 47.21 (5 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_47.2102e_32.4918n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:25:01.996Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.303 BCM, 0.11 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.303,"vnfMatched":2}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47.09,32.26,47.54,32.6],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 21.03 MW at 32.4909, 47.2098.","values":{"hotNightDetections":156,"maxFrp":21.03,"maxNights":28,"persistentClusters":3,"vnfMatched":2,"vnfTopBcm":0.303,"vnfTopKm":0.11,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-6127-75b2-80a5-4358bee6c817","findingId":"01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:57.255Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"edc889fa581ce7482d6b47ce21d34d90a0032ad49fbdc38b20a00920093c3723","kind":"narrated","text":"Three heat sources burned nightly for up to 28 nights at a known Iranian flare field\n\nNight-time VIIRS passes over the flare field near 32.49N, 47.21E recorded 3 clusters of heat with fire radiative power of at least 5 MW on 5 or more of the last 30 nights (2026-08-28 to 2026-09-26), from 156 hot-night detections in all. The most persistent cluster was lit on 28 nights, peaking at 21.03 MW. Independently, 2 of the clusters fall on sites listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary, the top one 0.11 km away and credited with 0.303 BCM that year.\n\nWhat this is not: the sensor sees heat, not the thing burning. A flare, a refinery furnace, a steel or cement kiln all look alike from orbit; only the persistence and the match to a catalogued flare site argue for flaring here. FRP is not volume — the band saturates on big flares — and the VNF match is an annual aggregate from 2024, proving the site is a known flare, not that this week's burn is the same source. Unlit venting would be invisible entirely.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloudy or smoky stretch under-counts nights and can mimic a shutdown; methane data from S5P or EMIT, or an asset registry check, would sharpen or overturn the flaring reading.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time heat clusters: 3 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster: 28 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 21.03 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in 30 days: 156 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 2 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e]\n- Top VNF site flared volume, 2024 (BCM): 0.303 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a furnace, kiln or volcano; the flare reading rests on persistence plus the catalogued site match.\n- Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so persistence counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- FRP is a single-pixel estimate and saturates on large flares; it is not a measure of flared volume.\n- The confirming VNF record is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not this month's activity.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a location, not an organisation.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases would not appear in this data at all.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"d1534fc9204e6d2aa82c7fbf9b6bcb978f53384847d22c517f1ba382307b64e5","transcriptSha256":"0514c2083b5d610f7bf91aedf6925a99f32f09d54988b53e51acd4e329e1d4c4","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-32p5n-47p2e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-73a9-71d5-a160-9ce88d942fd7","findingId":"01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29","at":"2026-09-26T21:25:01.993Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"0167de78c38d179650f67eec2d4180a640fe3f8e6a75ec0ff0e67208d4a233aa","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numbers (3 clusters, 28 nights, 21.03 MW, 156 detections, 2 VNF matches, 0.303 BCM) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration thoroughly acknowledges blind spots: sensor ambiguity, cloud undercounting, FRP saturation, VNF being a past-year aggregate, overpass gaps, lack of ownership attribution, and invisibility of unlit venting; No individuals are named; only a location and institutional VNF credit are referenced; AOI is tagged 'flaring/oil-gas/discovered' and control:false, appropriately not a control site; Confidence label and caveats are consistent with the evidence's inherent uncertainty","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"events":5,"lastEventHash":"de4cd40ace11b62f28117b0257d193ec0126c1349ccd7f169510531538c8e91e","timeline":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:57.255Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:25:01.993Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:25:01.996Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published"}],"url":"https://vitalearth.io/watch/case/01a0df7f-ee19-783a-b4ba-14973942ca29/"},{"findingId":"01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field LBY 28.91, 19.77 (2 VNF sites): 3 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"3 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 127.22 MW). 3 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[19.772,28.91]},"bbox":[19.65,28.8,19.88,29.01],"aoi":{"id":"flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e","name":"Flare field LBY 28.91, 19.77 (2 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","lby","lby_ups_19.7736e_28.9105n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-24T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:24:40.659Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"3 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.665 BCM, 0.15 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.665,"vnfMatched":3}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-24T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[19.65,28.8,19.88,29.01],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"3 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 127.22 MW at 28.9097, 19.7723.","values":{"hotNightDetections":347,"maxFrp":127.22,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":3,"vnfMatched":3,"vnfTopBcm":0.665,"vnfTopKm":0.15,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-0d3b-71d5-8779-c1601d2b2f9e","findingId":"01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:35.771Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"84b1f90c89c6e6470c5dba823f12dd51399a3a55a05700c1c07bb3e98cd66163","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat burns 29 of 30 nights at a known Libyan flare field — steady flaring, not a new fire\n\nSatellite night-time heat detections over the flare field at roughly 28.91°N, 19.77°E show 3 clusters that stayed lit on at least 5 of the last 30 nights (28 Aug–26 Sep 2026), from 347 hot-night detections. The most persistent cluster was lit on 29 nights and peaked at 127.22 MW. All 3 clusters sit on sites listed in the independent VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary, the nearest just 0.15 km away, where the top site was credited with 0.665 billion cubic metres.\n\nWhat this is not: the sensor cannot tell a gas flare from a refinery furnace, a steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — it is the night-after-night persistence plus the match to known flare sites that points to flaring. The heat figure is not a volume: the detector saturates on the biggest flames, and volume estimates come only from the annual summary. Cold venting and unlit methane leaks would be invisible here. No operator or owner is identified; a cluster is a place, not a company.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a volcanic or industrial heat source mapped at these coordinates, or a cloud-free stretch showing the clusters going dark.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time heat clusters: 3 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit (most persistent cluster, of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 127.22 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in the 30-day window: 347 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching known 2024 flare sites: 3 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e]\n- Top matched site, 2024 flared volume (BCM): 0.665 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e]\n- Distance to nearest known flare site (km): 0.15 [firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a gas flare from a furnace, kiln or volcano; persistence and the site match carry the interpretation.\n- Cloud or heavy smoke hides nights, so a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can mimic a shut-down flare.\n- Radiated heat is not flared volume — the sensor saturates on the largest flames; volume figures come only from the 2024 annual summary.\n- The confirming record is an annual aggregate from 2024: it shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible here; pairing with methane sensors would be needed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution is possible from this data.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"e742c5c90b03644dfebe76522f04af0cc49dcf93f594d76d03e195064c51a5d9","transcriptSha256":"4e5d65dd7640f56a36056f1da084a20e63108b5f803d926b576e5fbcde538e89","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-lby-28p9n-19p8e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9b-2050-7844-952e-3f6085ddb684","findingId":"01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:40.656Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"01ee0267c0f50a2c9b3cbb0876745d9716bda4b99f2e86e7c29278e7651e5352","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numbers (3 clusters, 29 nights, 127.22 MW, 347 detections, 0.665 BCM, 0.15 km) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration transparently covers nearly all blind spots: sensor ambiguity, cloud gaps, FRP vs volume, annual-aggregate limitation, overpass timing, methane invisibility, no attribution; No individuals are named; only site/place-level description; AOI is tagged 'discovered', not 'control', and control field is false, consistent with a live (non-control) finding; Title's framing 'steady flaring, not a new fire' is a reasonable interpretation given persistence data and is appropriately hedged with 'what this is not' and 'what would change our mind' sections","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"events":5,"lastEventHash":"46bce9c1eeebe426154b292cc5c19f57f39cfe42dcb41b3947b651891c96c181","timeline":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:35.771Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:40.656Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:40.659Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published"}],"url":"https://vitalearth.io/watch/case/01a0df7f-d4fc-715f-834e-f9a754351d75/"},{"findingId":"01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field AGO -6.86, 12.39 (6 VNF sites): 1 cluster(s), up to 7 nights","summary":"1 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 7 nights (max 43.02 MW). 1 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[12.393,-6.857]},"bbox":[12.3,-6.96,12.53,-6.74],"aoi":{"id":"flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e","name":"Flare field AGO -6.86, 12.39 (6 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","ago","ago_ups_12.3922e_6.8563s"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-21T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:24:18.213Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"1 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.578 BCM, 0.17 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.578,"vnfMatched":1}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-21T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[12.3,-6.96,12.53,-6.74],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"1 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 7 nights, max 43.02 MW at -6.8573, 12.3934.","values":{"hotNightDetections":49,"maxFrp":43.02,"maxNights":7,"persistentClusters":1,"vnfMatched":1,"vnfTopBcm":0.578,"vnfTopKm":0.17,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9a-b81f-7833-893a-e1ed5ff8e563","findingId":"01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:13.983Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"0050acf64bb711c66a67e5dc1713bf0e271c902c86623832be1812bbf88e8fbf","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat source burns 7 of 30 nights at a known Angolan flare site\n\nNight-time satellite heat detections over the flare field near -6.86, 12.39 in Angola show one cluster lit on 7 of the last 30 nights (28 August to 26 September 2026), peaking at 43.02 MW of fire radiative power, from 49 hot-night detections. The cluster sits 0.17 km from a site in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, which logged 0.578 billion cubic metres at that site — an independent provider record that the spot is a known flare.\n\nWhat it may not be: the sensor sees heat, not equipment. A furnace, refinery or kiln would look much the same; only persistence and the known-site match argue 'flare'. The heat figure is not a volume, and the instrument can saturate on large flares. Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible. Cloud or smoke hides nights, so gaps need not mean a flare stopped. The 2024 record proves a past year, not this week.\n\nWhat would change our mind: asset-registry evidence of a non-flare heat source, methane observations (S5P/EMIT) pointing to unlit venting instead, or a clear-sky month with no repeat detections at the cluster.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit (of 30): 7 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 43.02 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Persistent clusters: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 49 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Distance to known VNF flare site (km): 0.17 [firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- VNF 2024 top site volume (BCM): 0.578 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a furnace, kiln or volcano; the flare reading rests on persistence plus the known-site match.\n- Fire radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor can saturate on the largest flares.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so persistence counts can be undercounts.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- The confirming record is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not activity this week.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible here; pair with methane sounders.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: this is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"ca67a1236b61b29b155b45ed8beb1f73952b231caa442c2c4f31f78987b5251f","transcriptSha256":"52d7d89d6643af16fb92e964a9233b13cd23de7ff9f0ecf3e967a49faa6c874e","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-ago-6p9s-12p4e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9a-c8a2-7ee2-8179-26d02ac151ca","findingId":"01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20","at":"2026-09-26T21:24:18.210Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"57b8cd97152f23b2386f0348f1e2c7df42313fd9c210eb9373e12f62ff2dd5bb","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numbers (7 nights, 43.02 MW, 49 detections, 1 cluster, 0.17 km, 0.578 BCM) match the evidence and confirmation records exactly; Narration clearly discloses blind spots: heat vs equipment ambiguity, FRP not volume, saturation, cloud undercounting, overpass gaps, aggregate-vs-current-week caveat, no venting/methane detection, no ownership attribution; No individuals or companies named, only a place-based cluster; AOI is tagged as discovered/oil-gas, not control, consistent with a non-control finding suitable for publication","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"events":5,"lastEventHash":"6a13ec65c132bf3ee98adcefa626ff5f758ece78e4fc6615c8fe92836557ae31","timeline":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:13.983Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:18.210Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:24:18.213Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published"}],"url":"https://vitalearth.io/watch/case/01a0df7f-c581-71a3-a96d-ed8a75bf8f20/"},{"findingId":"01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 27.51, 52.64 (12 VNF sites): 12 cluster(s), up to 28 nights","summary":"12 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 28 nights (max 27.8 MW). 12 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[52.626,27.511]},"bbox":[52.43,27.39,52.75,27.68],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e","name":"Flare field IRN 27.51, 52.64 (12 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_52.6363e_27.5070n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:23:43.068Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"12 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.268 BCM, 0.65 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.268,"vnfMatched":12}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[52.43,27.39,52.75,27.68],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"12 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 27.8 MW at 27.5105, 52.6262.","values":{"hotNightDetections":649,"maxFrp":137.29,"maxNights":28,"persistentClusters":12,"vnfMatched":12,"vnfTopBcm":0.268,"vnfTopKm":0.65,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-ff41-79b4-8a65-b82f534e5cd7","findingId":"01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:26.657Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"6c651fc6562f900e6900b8f7577dbcc78716ab0bb8867b8c5c89cb32372be3e8","kind":"narrated","text":"Twelve night-time heat sources burn steadily over a known Iranian flare field, one lit 28 nights in 30\n\nBetween 28 August and 26 September 2026, night-time infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites recorded 649 hot-night detections over a roughly 30 km-wide area near 27.51N, 52.64E. These grouped into 12 clusters that each burned at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of 30 nights. The most persistent was lit on 28 of those nights, peaking at 27.8 MW; the brightest single reading anywhere in the box was 137.29 MW. All 12 clusters fall on sites already listed in the Earth Observation Group's 2024 global flare summary, the nearest match 0.65 km away and credited with 0.268 billion cubic metres of gas that year.\n\nWhat this is not: thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or a kiln, so persistence plus the flare-site match is the argument, not proof. Brightness is not volume — the sensor saturates on big flares. Cloud can hide nights and make steady flaring look intermittent, and cold venting of methane is invisible here. A cluster is a place, not an operator.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloud-free month showing the clusters dark, an asset registry identifying non-flare industry at these coordinates, or methane sensing that contradicts combustion.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time clusters: 12 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 28 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak radiative power of top cluster (MW): 27.8 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Highest single-pixel radiative power in box (MW): 137.29 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in 30 days: 649 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching known 2024 flare sites: 12 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e]\n- Gas flared at top matched site in 2024 (BCM): 0.268 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal signal alone cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, refinery or kiln.\n- Radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.\n- Cloud or smoke can hide nights and under-count persistence.\n- The flare-site confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate: it shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.\n- Only two satellite passes per night; short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution — each cluster is a location, not a company.\n- Unlit venting of gas is invisible to thermal sensors and would need methane sensing.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"9483c08429884083a6eb40439e4330d8378a26a8525b66e42e98955e5c28a4f8","transcriptSha256":"48ed0c8ee3703aebb91403a8f9dc8ce62118aaf9ee3b90a1e7c810686a45726b","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p5n-52p6e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df9a-3f59-70b7-8e7e-e934b7fe60b7","findingId":"01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:43.065Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"dc54889cd5e4498db9897521e4cd2ecd99a467757f5bd93edb2390f1b48ae6dd","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All quantitative claims (12 clusters, 28 nights, 27.8 MW, 137.29 MW, 649 detections, 0.268 BCM, 0.65 km) match the evidence values exactly.; Narration explicitly states the flare-vs-other-thermal-source ambiguity, cloud under-counting, FRP-vs-volume distinction, saturation, unlit venting, and lack of operator attribution — matching the blind spots list.; No individual person is named or identifiable; only satellite/agency sources are credited.; AOI tags are ['flaring','oil-gas','discovered','irn', site id] and control:false — this is not a control site, so it is fit for publication as a real finding.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"events":5,"lastEventHash":"37ed7e9c5697d475fe12cc92781b1812f4c05939e407b64e90866149339cae29","timeline":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:23:26.657Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:23:43.065Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:23:43.068Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published"}],"url":"https://vitalearth.io/watch/case/01a0df7f-b6cc-734a-aa32-b840851cf0d5/"},{"findingId":"01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 27.76, 52.17 (21 VNF sites): 7 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"7 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 26.36 MW). 7 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[52.175,27.721]},"bbox":[51.89,27.58,52.42,28.11],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e","name":"Flare field IRN 27.76, 52.17 (21 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_52.1685e_27.7606n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:23:09.851Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"7 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.523 BCM, 0.12 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.523,"vnfMatched":7}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[51.89,27.58,52.42,28.11],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 26.36 MW at 27.7207, 52.1754.","values":{"hotNightDetections":686,"maxFrp":26.36,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":7,"vnfMatched":7,"vnfTopBcm":0.523,"vnfTopKm":0.12,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-ade6-744d-b0fe-ae032beb5b50","findingId":"01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:05.830Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"0fa736202f4b4406f3196bd401b6f373eecdc25fffe2a8c8f7dcd3d5528754a6","kind":"narrated","text":"Seven steady night-time heat sources near a known Iranian flare field; top site lit 29 of 30 nights\n\nBetween 28 August and 26 September 2026, night-time infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites picked out 7 clusters of heat within this flare field around 27.76N, 52.17E, each burning at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of the last 30 nights. The most persistent was lit on 29 nights, with a peak single-pixel reading of 26.36 MW. Across the month there were 686 hot-night detections. All 7 clusters sit on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary — the nearest just 0.12 km away, a site credited with 0.523 billion cubic metres that year.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace, a kiln or another industrial burner, and the satellite passes only twice a night, so brief flaring is missed. The brightness figure is not a volume — the sensor saturates on big flares. The 2024 record proves the site is a known flare, not that it burned this week. Cold venting and unlit methane are invisible here.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloudy stretch hiding nights, a site registry showing a non-flare furnace, or methane data from Sentinel-5P or EMIT telling a different story.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent clusters: 7 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, top cluster (of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 26.36 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 686 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching VNF 2024 flare sites: 7 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e]\n- Top VNF site volume, 2024 (BCM): 0.523 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e]\n- Distance to nearest VNF site (km): 0.12 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal signal cannot distinguish a flare from a refinery furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.\n- Cloud or smoke can hide nights, under-counting persistence and mimicking a shut-off.\n- FRP is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.\n- The confirming VNF record is an annual aggregate from 2024, evidence the site is a known flare, not of this month's activity.\n- Only two overpasses per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent flaring is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"45d957596ac2054999fb34b66a47b1ef0405f837ab8ba250da0b38f65a57d380","transcriptSha256":"f1920a8a15bc248ce4f7f53187b1db707259f6ab2e22934ff62f7ceeb5e322ea","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-27p8n-52p2e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-bd98-7334-a21b-2c8dc5cb4f70","findingId":"01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e","at":"2026-09-26T21:23:09.848Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"10e08c4c92605e95d379ec7a4221cac8f71d93cb4c14e9dce93f3622b9b1d8a9","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (7 clusters, 29 nights, 26.36 MW, 686 detections, 0.523 BCM, 0.12 km) match the evidence values exactly; Narration clearly discloses key blind spots: cannot distinguish flare from other industrial heat sources, cloud gaps, FRP vs volume, VNF is an annual aggregate not current activity, overpass limitations, invisibility of cold venting; No individuals or companies are named; text explicitly notes no ownership attribution; AOI is tagged 'flaring/oil-gas/discovered', not control, consistent with a real (non-control) finding suitable for publication","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"events":5,"lastEventHash":"a06bf4b896035974301551a04d5c4e600889c3a68c09d24d1f1867b72b5f2bb4","timeline":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:23:05.830Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:23:09.848Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:23:09.851Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published"}],"url":"https://vitalearth.io/watch/case/01a0df7f-a7f1-7735-acd5-2cb3da82309e/"},{"findingId":"01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 30.48, 50.48 (76 VNF sites): 8 cluster(s), up to 25 nights","summary":"8 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 25 nights (max 33.44 MW). 8 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[50.619,30.396]},"bbox":[50.22,29.79,51.09,30.76],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e","name":"Flare field IRN 30.48, 50.48 (76 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_50.4845e_30.4845n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:22:52.189Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"8 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.233 BCM, 0.47 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.233,"vnfMatched":8}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[50.22,29.79,51.09,30.76],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"8 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 25 nights, max 33.44 MW at 30.3958, 50.619.","values":{"hotNightDetections":359,"maxFrp":57.63,"maxNights":25,"persistentClusters":8,"vnfMatched":8,"vnfTopBcm":0.233,"vnfTopKm":0.47,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-5f9c-75b2-9294-21e3a69fb093","findingId":"01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:45.788Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"5457b1c9d5aca3af5c78de3dcab4eb4256e3ba7895481893233ca149b295064b","kind":"narrated","text":"Eight persistent night-time heat sources burning in an Iranian flare field, one lit 25 of 30 nights\n\nBetween 28 August and 26 September 2026, night-time infrared sensors on the NOAA-20 and NOAA-21 satellites recorded 359 hot-night detections in a known oil and gas flare field near 30.48N, 50.48E. These grouped into 8 clusters that each burned at 5 MW or more on at least 5 of 30 nights. The most persistent burned on 25 nights, with a peak reading of 33.44 MW at that spot; the strongest single reading anywhere in the field was 57.63 MW. All 8 clusters sit on sites listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the largest of which reported 0.233 billion cubic metres and lies 0.47 km away.\n\nThis is a steady industrial heat signature, not a wildfire or a new event. Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or kiln; persistence plus the flare-site match is what argues for flaring. Heat is also not volume — the sensor saturates on the biggest flares, and unlit venting is invisible entirely.\n\nWe would revise if the clusters fall outside registered flare infrastructure, if methane sensors show no matching plumes, or if a cloudy month explains gaps in the nightly record.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent clusters: 8 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit (most persistent cluster): 25 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 359 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Maximum FRP (MW): 57.63 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching 2024 VNF flare sites: 8 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e]\n- Top VNF site volume (BCM, 2024): 0.233 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e]\n- Distance to top VNF site (km): 0.47 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal data cannot distinguish a gas flare from a refinery furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.\n- Fire radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares and volumes come only from the annual VNF summary.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so persistence counts can be undercounts.\n- Only two satellite passes per night (~01:30 local); brief or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- The 2024 VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year — it proves the site is a known flare, not this month's activity.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"9e1b0bd142fdf7ac7e01af53dfb35a3b467d83256275b84143f2bf5ac5d994be","transcriptSha256":"b9457f740e8b9850002a63828f2e9628667c02223587f419b52ee34a96095a56","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-30p5n-50p5e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-789a-764c-913a-69419c893185","findingId":"01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:52.187Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"69a88d1af8923c1f6631f1e9792c4d32d01f2b1ce862003c337068c1b8263059","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (359 detections, 8 clusters, 25 nights, 33.44 and 57.63 MW, VNF 0.233 BCM, 0.47 km) match the evidence and confirmation signal values exactly.; Narration and caveats faithfully reflect the blind spots list: sensor confusion with other heat sources, FRP vs volume, cloud undercounting, revisit gaps, annual VNF vs current activity, and lack of attribution.; No individuals are named; only a discovered AOI and site coordinates are referenced.; AOI is tagged 'flaring/oil-gas/discovered/irn', control:false, so this is not a control site and the finding is a plausible flaring detection with strong corroborating VNF match.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"events":5,"lastEventHash":"4dccc956cff15b5974b20037479f7f12c02684ee779bcf16baab2f0663b1937f","timeline":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:45.788Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:52.187Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:52.189Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published"}],"url":"https://vitalearth.io/watch/case/01a0df7f-93df-7f59-9465-cf5bddca5885/"},{"findingId":"01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field IRN 25.53, 53.15 (2 VNF sites): 2 cluster(s), up to 28 nights","summary":"2 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 28 nights (max 40.03 MW). 2 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[53.147,25.533]},"bbox":[53.04,25.41,53.25,25.63],"aoi":{"id":"flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e","name":"Flare field IRN 25.53, 53.15 (2 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","irn","irn_ups_53.1487e_25.5337n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:22:30.137Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"2 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.401 BCM, 0.15 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.401,"vnfMatched":2}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[53.04,25.41,53.25,25.63],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"2 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 28 nights, max 40.03 MW at 25.5333, 53.1472.","values":{"hotNightDetections":145,"maxFrp":40.03,"maxNights":28,"persistentClusters":2,"vnfMatched":2,"vnfTopBcm":0.401,"vnfTopKm":0.15,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-1093-7138-91df-64599569d32d","findingId":"01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:25.555Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"56634fb162a8a4ff8411272d59c509af1c3477bc7cc4abaeefaedc31618160c0","kind":"narrated","text":"Two heat sources burned through the night for up to 28 of 30 nights at a known Iranian flare field\n\nNight-time infrared satellite passes (VIIRS on NOAA-20 and NOAA-21) picked up 2 persistent heat clusters inside the flare field near 25.53N, 53.15E between 28 August and 26 September 2026. Together they produced 145 hot-night detections; the most persistent cluster was lit on 28 of the 30 nights, with a peak fire radiative power of 40.03 MW. Both clusters sit on sites already listed in the 2024 VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary, the nearest just 0.15 km away, where the top site was credited with 0.401 billion cubic metres — an independent, provider-level match.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a measurement of how much gas burned this month, and it is not proof of new activity. Thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or kiln, and FRP saturates on large flares. The 2024 record only shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week. Unlit venting would be invisible here. The El Niño phase (ONI 1.8) and cloud cover affect how many nights are seen, not whether a flare exists. No operator is identified.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time heat clusters: 2 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit (most persistent cluster, of 30): 28 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 40.03 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in 30 days: 145 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching 2024 VNF flare sites: 2 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e]\n- Top VNF site volume, 2024 (BCM): 0.401 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e]\n- Distance to nearest VNF site (km): 0.15 [firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- FRP is not volume: the sensor saturates on big flares; only the VNF annual summary gives burned volumes.\n- A flare cannot be told apart from a furnace, refinery or kiln by heat alone — persistence plus the VNF site match is the argument.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so night counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- Only two passes per night (~01:30 local); short or intermittent burning between passes is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors; pair with S5P/EMIT methane data.\n- The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it proves a known flare site, not this month's activity.\n- No operator or owner is identified; a cluster is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"d1563f486bdd1f01a831f605280044c6009f9b6ed9989833b60083cc61705341","transcriptSha256":"560aa16d9ddd71a43b064c158dfca1858f2688c344a78d6eac4b9045fd92328e","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-irn-25p5n-53p1e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df99-2276-7c5a-9d24-587e3ed92663","findingId":"01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:30.134Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"95e7136f6f63130036807ca3b85e3e48cb8c3d5ccb2214594c3cb011f814aa75","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (145 detections, 40.03 MW, 28/30 nights, 0.401 BCM, 0.15 km, 2 clusters) match the evidence and confirmation records exactly; Narration explicitly covers blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, FRP saturation, cloud undercounting, pass-frequency gaps, unlit venting invisibility, stale annual VNF match, no operator attribution; No individuals or companies are named, only a site location and public VNF dataset; AOI control tag is false, correctly not a control site, consistent with publishing a real flaring finding","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"events":5,"lastEventHash":"81f845ae63a427c029ce6a7ef8658ac2cdafc91906e861736ad92482d0bba020","timeline":[{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:25.555Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:30.134Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:30.137Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published"}],"url":"https://vitalearth.io/watch/case/01a0df8c-11e9-7823-81ed-4579df49e920/"},{"findingId":"01a0df8b-e045-7fa4-9428-e7f599938fa1","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field MEX 19.45, -92.09 (18 VNF sites): 7 cluster(s), up to 17 nights","summary":"7 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 17 nights (max 28.89 MW). 7 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-92.044,19.395]},"bbox":[-92.39,19.27,-91.91,19.7],"aoi":{"id":"flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w","name":"Flare field MEX 19.45, -92.09 (18 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","mex","mex_ups_92.0866w_19.4475n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:22:10.383Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"7 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.217 BCM, 0.14 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.217,"vnfMatched":7}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-92.39,19.27,-91.91,19.7],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 17 nights, max 28.89 MW at 19.3948, -92.0437.","values":{"hotNightDetections":252,"maxFrp":28.89,"maxNights":17,"persistentClusters":7,"vnfMatched":7,"vnfTopBcm":0.217,"vnfTopKm":0.14,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df97-c470-7462-8669-ae99d1e43d71","findingId":"01a0df8b-e045-7fa4-9428-e7f599938fa1","at":"2026-09-26T21:21:00.528Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"4442495f1111d15eb11167a20a2fcb2641800f1c05eabf88b5f16c7cb0a50923","kind":"narrated","text":"Seven steady night-time heat sources burn offshore Campeche; top site lit 17 of 30 nights\n\nNight-time satellite passes over the flare field at roughly 19.45N, 92.09W picked up 7 clusters of heat that reached at least 5 MW and reappeared on 5 or more of the last 30 nights (28 August to 26 September 2026). The most persistent was lit on 17 nights, with a peak fire radiative power of 28.89 MW, and 252 hot-night detections were logged in total. All 7 clusters sit on sites listed in an independent 2024 annual flare summary from the Earth Observation Group, the largest of them 0.14 km away and credited with 0.217 billion cubic metres for that year.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace, a kiln or another industrial source — only the repetition and the known-flare match point to flaring. The brightness figure is not a volume; the sensor saturates on the biggest flares. Unlit venting and cold methane leaks would not show up at all. The finding names a place, not an operator.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a month of heavy cloud can hide nights and mimic a shutdown, so a gap is not proof of stoppage. Daytime imagery, methane sounding, or an updated flare inventory could recast these clusters.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent clusters: 7 [firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster: 17 [firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 28.89 [firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 252 [firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching known 2024 flare sites: 7 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w]\n- Top site 2024 flared volume (BCM): 0.217 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.\n- Cloud or smoke can hide nights and make a steady flare look intermittent.\n- FRP is not a flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible here; methane sounding would be needed.\n- The confirming flare inventory is an annual aggregate from 2024 — it shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.\n- Two passes per night around 01:30 local time; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution — the clusters are locations only.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"94fe79de34fdb7c6b213aa4d66f71e6c9dfb26d6ea5af706c631a2eb30f4078f","transcriptSha256":"59d869bf622ed98a544bcea4a18b8570432f7640fdb2d7a0846ce5432d2e70f5","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df98-d54b-76f0-99e6-592a66d00903","findingId":"01a0df8b-e045-7fa4-9428-e7f599938fa1","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:10.380Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"866a263722a969a88e4322f04b653322d1c92e05eb7652cff1d5403cae9b00d3","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All key figures (7 clusters, 17 nights, 28.89 MW, 252 detections, VNF match, 0.217 BCM) trace directly to the cited evidence and confirmation records with no invented numbers.; The narration's caveats mirror the finding's blindSpots list nearly one-to-one: sensor/source ambiguity, cloud gaps, FRP-vs-volume, invisibility of cold venting/methane, lack of operator attribution, revisit-cadence limits, and the 'annual snapshot vs. current activity' caveat about the VNF match.; No person is named; only a place, coordinates and an institutional data credit (Earth Observation Group) appear.; The AOI record shows control:false and carries operational tags (flaring, oil-gas, discovered, mex) rather than a 'control' tag, so this is a live discovered-field finding, not a test/control site.; Minor stylistic addition ('offshore Campeche') is a reasonable geographic gloss for the given coordinates and not a substantive overclaim, so it does not undermine evidentiary support.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"events":5,"lastEventHash":"46b49ee25c735ee5ee2c325609fda541c75cb1be3aaacee0f918fa2903bb3c2d","timeline":[{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:21:00.528Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:10.380Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:10.383Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published"}],"url":"https://vitalearth.io/watch/case/01a0df8b-e045-7fa4-9428-e7f599938fa1/"},{"findingId":"01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field RUS 57.95, 107.08 (27 VNF sites): 1 cluster(s), up to 18 nights","summary":"1 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 18 nights (max 36.73 MW). 1 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[106.559,58.095]},"bbox":[106.29,57.84,107.48,58.27],"aoi":{"id":"flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e","name":"Flare field RUS 57.95, 107.08 (27 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","rus","rus_ups_107.0756e_57.9530n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:20:46.028Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"1 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.157 BCM, 0.54 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.157,"vnfMatched":1}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[106.29,57.84,107.48,58.27],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"1 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 18 nights, max 36.73 MW at 58.0946, 106.5585.","values":{"hotNightDetections":157,"maxFrp":36.73,"maxNights":18,"persistentClusters":1,"vnfMatched":1,"vnfTopBcm":0.157,"vnfTopKm":0.54,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df97-79d6-7b7e-9d6b-60b124487bb0","findingId":"01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f","at":"2026-09-26T21:20:41.430Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"760887a4e91ad380c8a36766e38e922de6ac90d868720a4c87ec85a8ac84d06f","kind":"narrated","text":"Night-time heat at a known Siberian flare site: one cluster lit 18 of 30 nights, peaking at 36.73 MW\n\nSatellite night-time heat detections over the flare field at roughly 57.95N, 107.08E show one persistent hot cluster. Between 28 August and 26 September 2026 it was lit on 18 of the 30 nights, with a peak fire radiative power of 36.73 MW and 157 hot-night detections in the area overall. Independently, the cluster sits 0.54 km from a site listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire annual flare summary for 2024, where that site was credited with 0.157 billion cubic metres of flared gas.\n\nWhat this is not: thermal sensors cannot separate a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery or kiln, and heat is not volume — the sensor can saturate, and the flared-volume figure comes only from an earlier annual summary, which proves the site is a known flare but not what burned this month. Unlit venting and cold methane leaks would be invisible here. No operator or owner is identified; this is a place, not a company.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloud-free month with the cluster dark, a ground or registry record showing a different heat source, or methane observations pointing to venting rather than burning.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Nights lit in the 30-night window: 18 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 36.73 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 157 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Persistent clusters: 1 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Distance to known VNF flare site (km): 0.54 [firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- VNF 2024 flared volume at matched site (BCM): 0.157 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal data cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights, so persistence counts are a floor, not a ceiling.\n- Fire radiative power is not flared volume; the sensor can saturate on large flares.\n- The 0.157 BCM figure is a 2024 annual aggregate, not this month's output.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors.\n- Only two satellite passes per night; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution is made or implied.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"b98f50d6f36ddd596c6ad0ee3d8668640f7f9786c53443fac51df1c6df375d69","transcriptSha256":"375e8f667b83fc3f3db538cd3033483851b1a4b9f1c8e11a79a85369556bda64","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-rus-58p0n-107p1e"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df97-8bbc-7760-ae5e-857a769b80ed","findingId":"01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f","at":"2026-09-26T21:20:46.012Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"c77d9f3daa8401bbe2bea49e630f650f3f9938594843e6d914307cc9f7076d28","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (18/30 nights, 36.73 MW, 157 detections, 0.54 km, 0.157 BCM) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration explicitly covers major blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, FRP is not volume, cloud gaps under-count persistence, venting/cold methane invisible, no operator attribution, VNF is a past annual aggregate; No individuals or companies are named, only a place-based cluster; AOI is tagged discovered/flaring/oil-gas, not control, consistent with a non-control finding warranting publication; Confidence label and caveats are appropriately hedged given tier 2 status","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"events":5,"lastEventHash":"3d89d0af21c177d30192302e62602945bc2125ee4ce7f09fbea4878e082f3b7f","timeline":[{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:20:41.430Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:20:46.012Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:20:46.028Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published"}],"url":"https://vitalearth.io/watch/case/01a0df8b-d019-740b-a8d3-c6107acfc13f/"},{"findingId":"01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Rumaila field (Basra, Iraq): 18 cluster(s), up to 29 nights","summary":"18 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 29 nights (max 57.09 MW). 17 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[47.391,30.211]},"bbox":[47,30.2,47.6,30.8],"aoi":{"id":"iq-rumaila","name":"Rumaila field (Basra, Iraq)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","iraq"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T19:52:25.045Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T19:53:02.718Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T19:52:25.045Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"17 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.185 BCM, 0.32 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.185,"vnfMatched":17}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[47,30.2,47.6,30.8],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"18 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 29 nights, max 57.09 MW at 30.2109, 47.3914.","values":{"hotNightDetections":1724,"maxFrp":79.55,"maxNights":29,"persistentClusters":18,"vnfMatched":17,"vnfTopBcm":0.185,"vnfTopKm":0.32,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df47-2ac2-729c-8ea1-474d7ccfd00d","findingId":"01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f","at":"2026-09-26T19:52:58.306Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"c49d27003fc901e6a5e30d306f4e4bad697cdd0d322555e1e150c3b8281f0f44","kind":"narrated","text":"Rumaila oil field: 18 night-time heat clusters burn on, one lit 29 of 30 nights\n\nNight-time satellite passes over the Rumaila field in Basra, Iraq picked up 18 heat clusters that were lit with a fire radiative power of at least 5 MW on five or more of the 30 nights from 28 August to 26 September 2026. The steadiest cluster was lit on 29 of those nights, peaking at 57.09 MW, and the month produced 1724 hot-night detections in total. Independently, 17 of the 18 clusters fall on sites already listed in the Earth Observation Group's VIIRS Nightfire 2024 annual flare summary — the top match 0.32 km away, credited with 0.185 billion cubic metres that year.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace or a kiln, so it is persistence plus the known-flare match that argues 'flare'. The 2024 record proves the site is a flare site, not that this month's burning is new. Fire radiative power is not volume — the sensor saturates on the biggest flames. Unlit venting and cold methane releases stay invisible here.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a cloudy or smoky month that hides nights and fakes a shutdown, methane data from S5P or EMIT showing venting instead, or ground records reclassifying these clusters as industrial heat.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent night-time clusters: 18 [firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster (of 30): 29 [firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak FRP of top cluster (MW): 57.09 [firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections in the 30-day window: 1724 [firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching known VNF 2024 flare sites: 17 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila]\n- Top matched site's 2024 flared volume (BCM): 0.185 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace or kiln; the VNF site match carries the interpretation.\n- The VNF confirmation is a 2024 annual aggregate — it shows a known flare site, not this month's activity.\n- FRP is not flared volume; the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares.\n- Cloud or smoke hides nights and can make a flare look switched off.\n- Only two passes per night near 01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring in between is missed.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible to this method.\n- No operator or ownership attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"be3f5178a24a0cd97d75aee3371f0d4dc07a59655ee133d9558be4779dfd83e6","transcriptSha256":"520bc10265c82e719803ccdffab882c6230c0510a5ea4691bea5d858b63f234f","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-iq-rumaila-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-iq-rumaila"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df47-3bfc-7cc2-a235-f8ea8f7f68e5","findingId":"01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f","at":"2026-09-26T19:53:02.716Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"615fba4a4d2d6c2578dad96c6c6973db0fd70b9419e1a639bc38df1f4c70509d","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All numeric claims (18 clusters, 29 nights, 57.09 MW, 1724 detections, 17 VNF matches, 0.185 BCM, 0.32 km) match the evidence exactly; Narration transparently covers blind spots: sensor cannot distinguish flare from furnace/kiln, VNF is a past-year aggregate not current confirmation, FRP≠volume, cloud/smoke masking, venting invisibility, no attribution — closely mirroring the finding's blindSpots list; No individuals or companies are named, only the field and general operator-neutral language; AOI is tagged oil-gas/flaring/iraq, control:false, consistent with a real (non-control) site","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"events":5,"lastEventHash":"fb04f3e0b6823c34837a397967ffeb81358dd53570ca31e122a668187ecd88ac","timeline":[{"at":"2026-09-26T19:52:25.045Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate"},{"at":"2026-09-26T19:52:25.045Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T19:52:58.306Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T19:53:02.716Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T19:53:02.718Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published"}],"url":"https://vitalearth.io/watch/case/01a0df46-b82d-74ed-b67a-509c003e071f/"},{"findingId":"01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":200,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":20,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Novo Progresso / BR-163 corridor (PA): 727.07 ha in 90 d","summary":"59527 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 727.07 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 1.108× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-55.6,-7.4],[-55.1,-7.4],[-55.1,-6.9],[-55.6,-6.9],[-55.6,-7.4]]]},"bbox":[-55.6,-7.4,-55.1,-6.9],"aoi":{"id":"br-novo-progresso-br163","name":"Novo Progresso / BR-163 corridor (PA)","tags":["amazon","brazil","road-corridor"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":2908.28,"regionalValue":2624.87,"ratio":1.108}},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T18:59:39.867Z","createdBy":"system:forest_loss@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","independence":"sensor","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-55.6,-7.4,-55.1,-6.9],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-14","dateB":"2026-09-26","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.169 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 94% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.16871212382542977,"validPctA":94,"validPctB":100}}},"evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-55.6,-7.4,-55.1,-6.9],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"59527 alerts (≥ high confidence), 727.07 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.","values":{"alerts":59527,"ha":727.07,"high_alerts":52920,"high_ha":646.38,"highest_alerts":6607,"highest_ha":80.7}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df16-4998-72c0-bdc7-3f864afa48e0","findingId":"01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:34.936Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"c7af4355379be3b806729a559ae14c5e0554764e27e9c1e0049d0fef8ac46cbe","kind":"narrated","text":"727 ha of forest alerts along the BR-163 corridor near Novo Progresso, backed by a drop in greenness\n\nBetween 28 June and 26 September 2026, satellite alert systems logged 59527 high-confidence deforestation alerts across the Novo Progresso / BR-163 corridor in Pará, covering 727.07 ha. Of those, 52920 alerts (646.38 ha) are rated high confidence and 6607 alerts (80.7 ha) highest confidence. A separate sensor agrees: Sentinel-2 median-composite greenness (NDVI) fell -0.169 between 14 May and 26 September, with 94% and 100% valid pixels in the two composites. Alert density sits at 1.108 times the surrounding 25 km ring (2908.28 versus 2624.87 alert ha per deg²) — elevated, but not far above an already active neighbourhood.\n\nWhat this is not: the alerts cannot separate legal clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging from unauthorised clearing, and no cause is assigned here. The season is El Niño (ONI 1.8), which can dry canopies and deepen NDVI losses without any tree removal; regrowth and harvest cycles can also mimic loss. No nearby natural events were recorded.\n\nWhat would change our mind: high-resolution imagery showing intact canopy, burn scars rather than cut edges, concession or protected-area layers, or a greenness rebound in the next composite.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Alerts (≥ high confidence): 59527 [gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Area flagged (ha): 727.07 [gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Highest-confidence area (ha): 80.7 [gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Change in median NDVI: -0.169 [s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 100 [s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Alerts cannot tell clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging apart.\n- El Niño drying can lower NDVI without tree loss.\n- Alerts lag events by about 1–2 weeks, so recent clearing may be undercounted.\n- Density is only 1.108× the surrounding ring — the wider area is already active.\n- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can resemble loss.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"11adba11d82cfb2c8374437e5ee69b2a2f7812ef13c05cb6ea191896ce7b9a63","transcriptSha256":"1e9db58ea5cd9a5ced27a588bf185c55d09d81b7d01e3ad3f6b345b57797bf15","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","s2-ndvi-median-br-novo-progresso-br163-2026-05-14..2026-09-26"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df16-5cd9-7189-90f7-b1abc6bf5751","findingId":"01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:39.865Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"e9e0f24036dcbd7c6396f3a5ce91625dec2e102c0c7c04553fc83847cb0d44ba","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (alerts, ha, confidence breakdowns, NDVI delta, valid pixel %, density ratio) match the evidence exactly.; Narration appropriately hedges attribution, citing El Niño drying, regrowth/harvest cycles, and inability to distinguish clearing causes, consistent with blind spots.; No individuals or identifiable persons are named.; AOI is correctly tagged non-control (tags: amazon, brazil, road-corridor; control:false), consistent with this being a genuine monitoring target rather than a control site.; Minor omission: the coverage-limit (30N-30S) and cloud-delay blind spots aren't mentioned, but the most salient caveats are covered, and confidence is honestly labeled medium.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"events":5,"lastEventHash":"f7f996e05c91518938f763b7e3586d14b73c800913dfb87574d0188addc25e4e","timeline":[{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:59:34.936Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:59:39.865Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:59:39.867Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published"}],"url":"https://vitalearth.io/watch/case/01a0deea-2ccf-74bf-8d7e-f60030c2076b/"},{"findingId":"01a0deea-0484-7e03-bd7e-b887aad6053d","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":200,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":20,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, São Félix do Xingu (PA): 232.05 ha in 90 d","summary":"18977 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 232.05 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 0.501× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-52.4,-6.9],[-51.9,-6.9],[-51.9,-6.4],[-52.4,-6.4],[-52.4,-6.9]]]},"bbox":[-52.4,-6.9,-51.9,-6.4],"aoi":{"id":"br-sao-felix-do-xingu","name":"São Félix do Xingu (PA)","tags":["amazon","brazil","cattle-frontier"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":928.2,"regionalValue":1854.333,"ratio":0.501}},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T18:59:18.312Z","createdBy":"system:forest_loss@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","independence":"sensor","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-05-14..2026-09-26","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-52.4,-6.9,-51.9,-6.4],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-14","dateB":"2026-09-26","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.133 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 93% / 96%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.13307291321656778,"validPctA":93,"validPctB":96}}},"evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-52.4,-6.9,-51.9,-6.4],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"18977 alerts (≥ high confidence), 232.05 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.","values":{"alerts":18977,"ha":232.05,"high_alerts":18237,"high_ha":223,"highest_alerts":740,"highest_ha":9.05}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df15-dcd9-7002-b51b-3e4b12f70e11","findingId":"01a0deea-0484-7e03-bd7e-b887aad6053d","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:07.097Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"321db790a8562fd3786eae4a4b8672d0e0379720f424787c151152ffb3f36daf","kind":"narrated","text":"São Félix do Xingu: 232.05 ha of forest loss flagged in 90 days, NDVI confirms\n\nBetween 28 June and 26 September 2026, satellite alert systems logged 18977 high-confidence deforestation alerts inside the São Félix do Xingu (PA) area of interest, covering 232.05 ha. Of that, 223 ha came from high-confidence alerts and 9.05 ha from the highest-confidence class. An independent optical check backs this up: median-composite Sentinel-2 NDVI — a greenness measure — fell by -0.133 over roughly the same window, with 93% and 96% of pixels usable in the two composites, so cloud is not driving the result.\n\nWhat this is not: the alerts cannot tell legal clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging apart from unauthorised clearing, and no cause is assigned here. This is an El Niño season (ONI 1.8), when drought stress alone can lower greenness. Regrowth and harvest cycles can also mimic loss. Notably, alert density here is 0.501× that of the surrounding 25 km ring — this block is quieter than its neighbourhood.\n\nWhat would change our mind: higher-resolution imagery showing intact canopy, burn-scar mapping indicating fire, concession or protected-area layers placing the change in a managed cycle, or an NDVI rebound in the next composite.\n\nKey numbers:\n- High-confidence alerts (90 d): 18977 [gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Area flagged (ha): 232.05 [gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Highest-confidence area (ha): 9.05 [gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- NDVI change (May→Sep): -0.133 [s2-ndvi-median-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 96 [s2-ndvi-median-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Alerts lag events by about 1–2 weeks, so a recent burst may be undercounted.\n- Fire, storm damage, selective logging and legal clearing are not separable from this data alone.\n- El Niño (ONI 1.8) drought can depress NDVI without canopy removal.\n- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can resemble loss; the 25 km baseline ring only partly compensates.\n- Alert coverage is 30°N–30°S only; absence of alerts elsewhere means unmonitored, not unchanged.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"267450ddf5be61813e920fe7acaab8e892730694b4105614b982bb8e0fbd6a09","transcriptSha256":"a720d428b054f235686f0fdfd00270874769a9fa949f84f8d1a5a892cd87f973","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","s2-ndvi-median-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-05-14..2026-09-26"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df16-08a3-7c62-98c6-01a84f3e82d4","findingId":"01a0deea-0484-7e03-bd7e-b887aad6053d","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:18.307Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"825ec6086a87afcd695b023185d29de6c8b55d5d4be76a9f004a3c5b403f16b0","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All cited alert and NDVI figures match the evidence values exactly, including the 232.05 ha, 18977 alerts, 223 ha/9.05 ha breakdown, and NDVI delta with valid-pixel percentages.; The narration transparently states what the data cannot show (cause of loss, El Niño drought effect on NDVI, regrowth/harvest confusion, alert lag, coverage limits), matching the finding's blindSpots list closely.; No natural person is named or identifiable in the text.; AOI tags are amazon/brazil/cattle-frontier and control=false, so this is not a control site, consistent with a live monitoring finding.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"events":5,"lastEventHash":"06aa8dae5e664368c1a1d18a0631c4e80b47b47d301b41ec5882a284591dd929","timeline":[{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:59:07.097Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:59:18.307Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:59:18.312Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published"}],"url":"https://vitalearth.io/watch/case/01a0deea-0484-7e03-bd7e-b887aad6053d/"}]}