{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0f4ca-7b73-72fa-b703-66832f218eda","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":460,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":46,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Santa Rita do Tocantins, Tocantins (Brazil): 72.39 ha in 90 d","summary":"5989 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 72.39 ha between 2026-07-03 and 2026-10-01; AOI alert density is 1.734× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-49.8,-11.19],[-48.82,-11.19],[-48.82,-10.73],[-49.8,-10.73],[-49.8,-11.19]]]},"bbox":[-49.8,-11.19,-48.82,-10.73],"aoi":{"id":"bra-27-117","name":"Santa Rita do Tocantins, Tocantins (Brazil)","tags":["forest-hotspot","discovered","bra","brazil","tocantins","santa-rita-do-tocantins"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":160.581,"regionalValue":92.605,"ratio":1.734},"notes":["Living value (benefit transfer, order of magnitude): 72.39 ha of tropical forest ≈ $486,316/yr alive (band $142,825–$1,884,095, 2020 USD), ≈ $48,631,600 over 100 yr ($20,959,418 NPV @ 2 %). Source: Costanza R. et al. et al. — a floor for one kind of value, not a price.","The watch area is 44.6 % converted land (MapBiomas 2024: pasture, crops, mosaic, urban, mining)."]},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."],"observedAt":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-10-01T00:01:01.398Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-01T01:24:28.989Z","createdBy":"system:forest_loss@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-10-01T00:01:01.398Z","independence":"sensor","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-bra-27-117-2026-05-19..2026-10-01","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-49.8,-11.19,-48.82,-10.73],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-19","dateB":"2026-10-01","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.224 (2026-05-19 → 2026-10-01); valid pixels 100% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.2236412487020047,"validPctA":100,"validPctB":100}}},"evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-bra-27-117-2026-07-03..2026-10-01","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-49.8,-11.19,-48.82,-10.73],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"5989 alerts (≥ high confidence), 72.39 ha, 2026-07-03…2026-10-01.","values":{"alerts":5989,"ha":72.39,"high_alerts":5987,"high_ha":72.36,"highest_alerts":2,"highest_ha":0.02,"living_value_100y_npv2_usd":20959418,"living_value_100y_usd":48631600,"living_value_usd_yr":486316,"watch_area_converted_pct":44.6}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-0ee4-77f2-8737-15509128ac0a","findingId":"01a0f4ca-7b73-72fa-b703-66832f218eda","at":"2026-10-01T01:24:25.444Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"290a012b763bebe5a99c83d8df86be4f2ad1610f5a8deb845c765dbf4fb2f5ec","kind":"narrated","text":"72 hectares of forest loss flagged near Santa Rita do Tocantins, Brazil, over 90 days\n\nBetween 3 July and 1 October 2026, satellite alert systems recorded 5989 high-confidence deforestation alerts covering 72.39 hectares inside the watch area around Santa Rita do Tocantins, Tocantins. That is 1.734 times the alert density of the surrounding 25 km neighbourhood, so the loss stands out against its own region rather than being part of a uniform regional pattern. A second, independent sensor supports it: Sentinel-2 median-composite greenness (NDVI) fell by -0.224 between 19 May and 1 October, with 100% valid pixels in both composites, so cloud is not masking the picture.\n\nWhat this is not: the alerts cannot tell clearing apart from fire, storm damage, selective logging or a plantation harvest cycle, and they carry no information about who did it or whether it was permitted. The watch area is already 44.6% converted land, so some change may be routine land-use rotation. Conditions are El Niño (ONI 1.8), which can brown out vegetation and deepen an NDVI drop without any trees being removed.\n\nWhat would change our mind: high-resolution imagery showing standing but drought-stressed canopy, a fire-scar record over the same footprint, or regrowth in the next composite.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hectares flagged: 72.39 [gfw-integrated-bra-27-117-2026-07-03..2026-10-01]\n- High-confidence alerts: 5989 [gfw-integrated-bra-27-117-2026-07-03..2026-10-01]\n- Watch area already converted (%): 44.6 [gfw-integrated-bra-27-117-2026-07-03..2026-10-01]\n- NDVI change (May→Oct): -0.2236412487020047 [s2-ndvi-median-bra-27-117-2026-05-19..2026-10-01]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 100 [s2-ndvi-median-bra-27-117-2026-05-19..2026-10-01]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Alerts lag the ground by about 1–2 weeks; a clearing burst just before the cutoff would be undercounted.\n- Fire, storm damage, selective logging and legal clearing look alike in these alerts; attribution needs concession and protected-area layers.\n- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can mimic loss; the 25 km baseline ring only partly corrects for this.\n- El Niño (ONI 1.8) can depress NDVI through drought stress alone, independent of tree removal.\n- The living-value figures in the context notes are order-of-magnitude benefit transfers, not a market price or a measured loss.\n- Alert coverage is limited to 30°N–30°S; absence of alerts elsewhere means unmonitored, not unchanged.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"424dfb638c785c00db4e5240fb81e682766ee8038f9d5159399e6d73fb6040d6","transcriptSha256":"cb63f2f4143a2edaafd651d18e976e083a3c6251a6c872410caef81ac4017829","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-bra-27-117-2026-07-03..2026-10-01","s2-ndvi-median-bra-27-117-2026-05-19..2026-10-01"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-1ca0-7655-9956-83397fcaaaab","findingId":"01a0f4ca-7b73-72fa-b703-66832f218eda","at":"2026-10-01T01:24:28.960Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"95ed54a8454283a78c9b88443654bc04de6e09cea2190a11701033d62e87828e","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (hectares, alert counts, density ratio, NDVI delta, valid pixel %, converted land %) trace directly to the evidence and context fields.; Narration clearly states blind spots: attribution limits, El Niño confound, regrowth/plantation cycles, lag, and living-value caveat.; No individuals are named or identifiable; only an AOI/place name is used.; AOI is tagged forest-hotspot/discovered, not control, consistent with a real (non-control) finding, and the finding is well-supported by convergent evidence (alert density + independent NDVI drop).","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-10-01T00:01:01.398Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-10-01T00:01:01.398Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:24:25.444Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:24:28.960Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:24:28.989Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"70e6537b3e3a7409325e8bb40805283c0e392fdb39dcea6264d7c73fba586160"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f4ca-7b73-7762-8168-8cc056ebc0b2","findingId":"01a0f4ca-7b73-72fa-b703-66832f218eda","at":"2026-10-01T00:01:01.398Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":460,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":46,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Santa Rita do Tocantins, Tocantins (Brazil): 72.39 ha in 90 d","summary":"5989 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 72.39 ha between 2026-07-03 and 2026-10-01; AOI alert density is 1.734× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-49.8,-11.19],[-48.82,-11.19],[-48.82,-10.73],[-49.8,-10.73],[-49.8,-11.19]]]},"bbox":[-49.8,-11.19,-48.82,-10.73],"aoi":{"id":"bra-27-117","name":"Santa Rita do Tocantins, Tocantins (Brazil)","tags":["forest-hotspot","discovered","bra","brazil","tocantins","santa-rita-do-tocantins"]},"observedAt":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-bra-27-117-2026-07-03..2026-10-01","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-49.8,-11.19,-48.82,-10.73],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"5989 alerts (≥ high confidence), 72.39 ha, 2026-07-03…2026-10-01.","values":{"alerts":5989,"ha":72.39,"high_alerts":5987,"high_ha":72.36,"highest_alerts":2,"highest_ha":0.02,"living_value_100y_npv2_usd":20959418,"living_value_100y_usd":48631600,"living_value_usd_yr":486316,"watch_area_converted_pct":44.6}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":160.581,"regionalValue":92.605,"ratio":1.734},"notes":["Living value (benefit transfer, order of magnitude): 72.39 ha of tropical forest ≈ $486,316/yr alive (band $142,825–$1,884,095, 2020 USD), ≈ $48,631,600 over 100 yr ($20,959,418 NPV @ 2 %). Source: Costanza R. et al. et al. — a floor for one kind of value, not a price.","The watch area is 44.6 % converted land (MapBiomas 2024: pasture, crops, mosaic, urban, mining)."]},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f4ca-a66c-7126-8e3c-d56b09a9a67d","findingId":"01a0f4ca-7b73-72fa-b703-66832f218eda","at":"2026-10-01T00:01:01.398Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":"7f478c138f89cdaaba763e217143100ffbe148f818bde192b05c29b6b7a6d723","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-bra-27-117-2026-05-19..2026-10-01","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-10-01T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-49.8,-11.19,-48.82,-10.73],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-19","dateB":"2026-10-01","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.224 (2026-05-19 → 2026-10-01); valid pixels 100% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.2236412487020047,"validPctA":100,"validPctB":100}},"independence":"sensor"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-0ee4-77f2-8737-15509128ac0a","findingId":"01a0f4ca-7b73-72fa-b703-66832f218eda","at":"2026-10-01T01:24:25.444Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"290a012b763bebe5a99c83d8df86be4f2ad1610f5a8deb845c765dbf4fb2f5ec","kind":"narrated","text":"72 hectares of forest loss flagged near Santa Rita do Tocantins, Brazil, over 90 days\n\nBetween 3 July and 1 October 2026, satellite alert systems recorded 5989 high-confidence deforestation alerts covering 72.39 hectares inside the watch area around Santa Rita do Tocantins, Tocantins. That is 1.734 times the alert density of the surrounding 25 km neighbourhood, so the loss stands out against its own region rather than being part of a uniform regional pattern. A second, independent sensor supports it: Sentinel-2 median-composite greenness (NDVI) fell by -0.224 between 19 May and 1 October, with 100% valid pixels in both composites, so cloud is not masking the picture.\n\nWhat this is not: the alerts cannot tell clearing apart from fire, storm damage, selective logging or a plantation harvest cycle, and they carry no information about who did it or whether it was permitted. The watch area is already 44.6% converted land, so some change may be routine land-use rotation. Conditions are El Niño (ONI 1.8), which can brown out vegetation and deepen an NDVI drop without any trees being removed.\n\nWhat would change our mind: high-resolution imagery showing standing but drought-stressed canopy, a fire-scar record over the same footprint, or regrowth in the next composite.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hectares flagged: 72.39 [gfw-integrated-bra-27-117-2026-07-03..2026-10-01]\n- High-confidence alerts: 5989 [gfw-integrated-bra-27-117-2026-07-03..2026-10-01]\n- Watch area already converted (%): 44.6 [gfw-integrated-bra-27-117-2026-07-03..2026-10-01]\n- NDVI change (May→Oct): -0.2236412487020047 [s2-ndvi-median-bra-27-117-2026-05-19..2026-10-01]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 100 [s2-ndvi-median-bra-27-117-2026-05-19..2026-10-01]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Alerts lag the ground by about 1–2 weeks; a clearing burst just before the cutoff would be undercounted.\n- Fire, storm damage, selective logging and legal clearing look alike in these alerts; attribution needs concession and protected-area layers.\n- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can mimic loss; the 25 km baseline ring only partly corrects for this.\n- El Niño (ONI 1.8) can depress NDVI through drought stress alone, independent of tree removal.\n- The living-value figures in the context notes are order-of-magnitude benefit transfers, not a market price or a measured loss.\n- Alert coverage is limited to 30°N–30°S; absence of alerts elsewhere means unmonitored, not unchanged.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"424dfb638c785c00db4e5240fb81e682766ee8038f9d5159399e6d73fb6040d6","transcriptSha256":"cb63f2f4143a2edaafd651d18e976e083a3c6251a6c872410caef81ac4017829","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-bra-27-117-2026-07-03..2026-10-01","s2-ndvi-median-bra-27-117-2026-05-19..2026-10-01"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-1ca0-7655-9956-83397fcaaaab","findingId":"01a0f4ca-7b73-72fa-b703-66832f218eda","at":"2026-10-01T01:24:28.960Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"95ed54a8454283a78c9b88443654bc04de6e09cea2190a11701033d62e87828e","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (hectares, alert counts, density ratio, NDVI delta, valid pixel %, converted land %) trace directly to the evidence and context fields.; Narration clearly states blind spots: attribution limits, El Niño confound, regrowth/plantation cycles, lag, and living-value caveat.; No individuals are named or identifiable; only an AOI/place name is used.; AOI is tagged forest-hotspot/discovered, not control, consistent with a real (non-control) finding, and the finding is well-supported by convergent evidence (alert density + independent NDVI drop).","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-1cbd-7efc-aa60-8cd34c53bcfb","findingId":"01a0f4ca-7b73-72fa-b703-66832f218eda","at":"2026-10-01T01:24:28.989Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"94b3468cfa2620267bc38ae504ce3979df9580d52f25be720ca1a7ea2e62d91a","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":1079,"leafHash":"83c5a876d0ccc1b2f67efd1fada7018ddc328021e7033d8690aefc6fab752c61","proof":["a64705d4da7119296f9d045f032147803ccf123b4bebea72a6d3f739ba09e24c","f8f048587525a5c9b2654379f25210e6dfce670d3653e642d55db388d3a6d20e","093e42f1eefabffbc5e4d74a33245388b6113d619277e71c959cf9b66d9cb81e","5582be0cf76faa64a396cc419b623db9ad174a590b5a5685c140c076528d3c5c","a075fff0f685bbbd7b0ae95e57f575fc200afdeaf4d162f4a48238b261472a54","90a6a1c0a261ad9f9f60e788c08236eafd993fb4cdb01ea5b4a58da45af5ae7a","64decc40b792c748c3c5f5f534f82c6ed232929960b40f30a38f3d6c3404d29f","8c9c126ddde5463be4c66b848b31cefa5e2e8b034ab906e8158680a170325566"],"size":1104,"root":"2d46ab865c7813b8991ed0d713906b15bef1321a022b8d382a1069dac9d5686a"}}