{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0ead8-3141-7832-a91c-0b51b88b7294","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"mpa_fishing","version":"1.0","params":{"days":30,"insetFrac":0.15,"insetShare":0.5,"legalNote":"Closed to commercial fishing 2015; Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021 — fishing here may be licensed.","minHours":50,"mpaId":"309888","mpaName":"Phoenix Islands Protected Area","resolution":"HIGH","revisitDays":7}},"title":"Fishing activity inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area: 1873 hours in 30 days","summary":"Global Fishing Watch shows 1873 hours of apparent fishing inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area over the last 30 days (vessels of 4 flag states). The area is a no-take or strictly protected marine reserve. Awaiting an independent check: the effort lying well inside the area rather than along its edge, or still there a week later.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-172.77,-6.48],[-169.7,-6.48],[-169.7,-0.98],[-172.77,-0.98],[-172.77,-6.48]]]},"bbox":[-172.77,-6.48,-169.7,-0.98],"aoi":{"id":"mpa-phoenix-islands-2","name":"Phoenix Islands Protected Area — tile 2/2","tags":["marine","marine-protected-area","fishing","kir","iucn-not-reported","fishing","marine-protected-area"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"notes":["Apparent fishing is model-inferred from AIS; vessels without AIS are not counted. Flag state ≠ owner.","Closed to commercial fishing 2015; Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021 — fishing here may be licensed."]},"blindSpots":["Only vessels broadcasting AIS are seen: 'dark' vessels (AIS off, absent or spoofed) are invisible, and most small-scale boats carry no AIS at all.","Apparent fishing is inferred by a GFW model from vessel movement, not observed catch — it can be wrong for a given track.","Transiting, drifting or waiting vessels can be misread as fishing (and slow fishing as transit).","The legal boundary is GFW's copy of the WDPA polygon (0.01° cells, centre-in rule); without a WDPA id the watch box stands in for the boundary. Zoning inside a reserve is not modelled.","Some MPAs allow fishing legally in zones or for local/artisanal fleets (e.g. Galápagos, Phoenix Islands since 2021) — effort there may be lawful.","Data lag ~4 days, and GFW's effort model is revised between dataset versions.","Says nothing about who is responsible; flag state is where a vessel is registered, not who owns or controls it."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-29T01:40:22.587Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-30T01:23:24.923Z","createdBy":"system:mpa_fishing@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-29T01:40:22.587Z","independence":"method","signal":{"id":"gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29","kind":"record","source":"globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort","collection":"public-global-fishing-effort:v4.0","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://globalfishingwatch.org/map","method":{"name":"fishing_activity","version":"1.0","params":{"byGear":false,"clipBBox":[-172.3095,-5.655,-170.16049999999998,-1.805],"from":"2026-08-30","mpaId":"309888","resolution":"HIGH","to":"2026-09-29"}},"summary":"835 h (45% of the 1872.7 h) lie in 0.01° cells well inside the area (box inset 15% per side) and inside the legal polygon — not a boundary artefact (bar 25 h).","values":{"insetHours":835,"insetSharePct":45}}},"evidence":[{"id":"gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29","kind":"record","source":"globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort","collection":"public-global-fishing-effort:v4.0","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://globalfishingwatch.org/map","method":{"name":"fishing_activity","version":"1.0","params":{"byGear":false,"clipBBox":[-172.77,-6.48,-169.7,-0.98],"from":"2026-08-30","mpaId":"309888","resolution":"HIGH","to":"2026-09-29"}},"summary":"1872.7 h of apparent fishing inside the legal boundary of MPA 309888 (GFW polygon clip) within this watch box, 2026-08-30..2026-09-25; whole reserve by flag state: CHN 3282 h, NRU 221 h, KIR 59 h. Global Fishing Watch, 2026. www.globalfishingwatch.org.","values":{"activeDays":27,"days":30,"flagStates":4,"hours":1872.7,"reserveHours":3589.3}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe8-9bcd-77cb-9372-7ea65bac4afc","findingId":"01a0ead8-3141-7832-a91c-0b51b88b7294","at":"2026-09-30T01:23:13.997Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"e6da9d9423fa3a759a57315c280056bd806bd210a8947b6ecde75d44a2a24f43","kind":"narrated","text":"1872.7 hours of apparent fishing logged inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area over 30 days\n\nGlobal Fishing Watch's AIS-based model recorded 1872.7 hours of apparent fishing inside the legal boundary of the Phoenix Islands Protected Area within this watch box, between 30 August and 25 September 2026, on 27 of 30 days, by vessels of 4 flag states. Across the whole reserve the model logged 3589.3 hours. A second pass using a tighter box, trimmed 15% in from each side, found 835 hours, or 45% of the total, well inside the area rather than hugging the edge, so this is not a boundary-mapping artefact.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not proof of illegal fishing. The reserve was closed to commercial fishing in 2015, but Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021, so effort here may be licensed, and zoning inside the reserve is not modelled. \"Apparent fishing\" is inferred from vessel movement, not observed catch, and transiting, drifting or waiting vessels can be misread as fishing. The period also falls in an El Niño phase, which can shift where fleets work.\n\nWhat would change our minds: licence or zoning records covering this area, a revised effort model, or the activity being gone at the seven-day revisit.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Apparent fishing hours in watch box (30 days): 1872.7 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29]\n- Apparent fishing hours across whole reserve: 3589.3 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29]\n- Days with activity out of 30: 27 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29]\n- Flag states involved: 4 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29]\n- Hours well inside the area (15% inset): 835 [gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29]\n- Share of hours well inside the area (%): 45 [gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Fishing here may be lawful: a reopening of the reserve was announced in 2021, and internal zoning is not modelled.\n- \"Apparent fishing\" is model-inferred from vessel movement, not observed catch; it can be wrong for any single track.\n- Only vessels broadcasting AIS are counted; those with AIS off, absent or spoofed are invisible, so the total is a floor, not a census.\n- Flag state is where a vessel is registered, not who owns or operates it; this finding assigns no blame.\n- Data lag is about 4 days, and the effort model is revised between dataset versions.\n- The boundary used is a copy of the WDPA polygon on 0.01° cells with a centre-in rule.\n- The check is method-level (a tighter inset box on the same dataset), not a separate data source; the seven-day revisit is still pending.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"50a8f5d7f96f94e9a5734560ffc1018eb62d8413434ef378e127d6d17f6708ab","transcriptSha256":"54c69d0f2e98c8522f7345d6a3968fc7052e6d7970163731ff67b4339e44e8e5","evidenceRefs":["gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29","gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe8-c671-7aae-84b7-5883cd261697","findingId":"01a0ead8-3141-7832-a91c-0b51b88b7294","at":"2026-09-30T01:23:24.913Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"f9a70a474e6dd4fa08b4c86186146719c012a10c1ca9b3472b5a518f5d100da6","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All key numbers (1872.7h, 3589.3h reserve-wide, 27/30 days, 4 flag states, 835h/45% inset) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly.; Narration clearly states this is not proof of illegal fishing, citing the 2021 reopening announcement and unmodeled internal zoning as plausible innocent explanations.; Blind spots are thoroughly covered: AIS-only detection, model-inferred vs observed catch, transiting/drifting misclassification, flag-state≠owner, data lag, WDPA polygon caveats, and that the confirmation is method-level (same dataset) rather than an independent source.; No natural persons are named; only flag states and vessel counts are referenced.; AOI is not tagged or flagged as a control site (control:false), so this is a legitimate live finding, not a test case.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-29T01:40:22.587Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:mpa_fishing@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:40:22.587Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:mpa_fishing@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-30T01:23:13.997Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-30T01:23:24.913Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-30T01:23:24.923Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"76ed690f136dcbb6b0285c5b13a8c76f8aaddca523ab4ca5cb6ad5e8944b99e2"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0ead8-3141-7602-8539-3bc802427463","findingId":"01a0ead8-3141-7832-a91c-0b51b88b7294","at":"2026-09-29T01:40:22.587Z","actor":"system:mpa_fishing@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"mpa_fishing","version":"1.0","params":{"days":30,"insetFrac":0.15,"insetShare":0.5,"legalNote":"Closed to commercial fishing 2015; Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021 — fishing here may be licensed.","minHours":50,"mpaId":"309888","mpaName":"Phoenix Islands Protected Area","resolution":"HIGH","revisitDays":7}},"title":"Fishing activity inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area: 1873 hours in 30 days","summary":"Global Fishing Watch shows 1873 hours of apparent fishing inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area over the last 30 days (vessels of 4 flag states). The area is a no-take or strictly protected marine reserve. Awaiting an independent check: the effort lying well inside the area rather than along its edge, or still there a week later.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-172.77,-6.48],[-169.7,-6.48],[-169.7,-0.98],[-172.77,-0.98],[-172.77,-6.48]]]},"bbox":[-172.77,-6.48,-169.7,-0.98],"aoi":{"id":"mpa-phoenix-islands-2","name":"Phoenix Islands Protected Area — tile 2/2","tags":["marine","marine-protected-area","fishing","kir","iucn-not-reported","fishing","marine-protected-area"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29","kind":"record","source":"globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort","collection":"public-global-fishing-effort:v4.0","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://globalfishingwatch.org/map","method":{"name":"fishing_activity","version":"1.0","params":{"byGear":false,"clipBBox":[-172.77,-6.48,-169.7,-0.98],"from":"2026-08-30","mpaId":"309888","resolution":"HIGH","to":"2026-09-29"}},"summary":"1872.7 h of apparent fishing inside the legal boundary of MPA 309888 (GFW polygon clip) within this watch box, 2026-08-30..2026-09-25; whole reserve by flag state: CHN 3282 h, NRU 221 h, KIR 59 h. Global Fishing Watch, 2026. www.globalfishingwatch.org.","values":{"activeDays":27,"days":30,"flagStates":4,"hours":1872.7,"reserveHours":3589.3}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"notes":["Apparent fishing is model-inferred from AIS; vessels without AIS are not counted. Flag state ≠ owner.","Closed to commercial fishing 2015; Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021 — fishing here may be licensed."]},"blindSpots":["Only vessels broadcasting AIS are seen: 'dark' vessels (AIS off, absent or spoofed) are invisible, and most small-scale boats carry no AIS at all.","Apparent fishing is inferred by a GFW model from vessel movement, not observed catch — it can be wrong for a given track.","Transiting, drifting or waiting vessels can be misread as fishing (and slow fishing as transit).","The legal boundary is GFW's copy of the WDPA polygon (0.01° cells, centre-in rule); without a WDPA id the watch box stands in for the boundary. Zoning inside a reserve is not modelled.","Some MPAs allow fishing legally in zones or for local/artisanal fleets (e.g. Galápagos, Phoenix Islands since 2021) — effort there may be lawful.","Data lag ~4 days, and GFW's effort model is revised between dataset versions.","Says nothing about who is responsible; flag state is where a vessel is registered, not who owns or controls it."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0ead8-31e3-7305-8dcf-85ba38443097","findingId":"01a0ead8-3141-7832-a91c-0b51b88b7294","at":"2026-09-29T01:40:22.587Z","actor":"system:mpa_fishing@1.0","prev":"01cba35e5f7fe9667cc111836aa6f2d314df2cd5b13adac8f386d589c71288b3","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29","kind":"record","source":"globalfishingwatch-fishing-effort","collection":"public-global-fishing-effort:v4.0","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://globalfishingwatch.org/map","method":{"name":"fishing_activity","version":"1.0","params":{"byGear":false,"clipBBox":[-172.3095,-5.655,-170.16049999999998,-1.805],"from":"2026-08-30","mpaId":"309888","resolution":"HIGH","to":"2026-09-29"}},"summary":"835 h (45% of the 1872.7 h) lie in 0.01° cells well inside the area (box inset 15% per side) and inside the legal polygon — not a boundary artefact (bar 25 h).","values":{"insetHours":835,"insetSharePct":45}},"independence":"method"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe8-9bcd-77cb-9372-7ea65bac4afc","findingId":"01a0ead8-3141-7832-a91c-0b51b88b7294","at":"2026-09-30T01:23:13.997Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"e6da9d9423fa3a759a57315c280056bd806bd210a8947b6ecde75d44a2a24f43","kind":"narrated","text":"1872.7 hours of apparent fishing logged inside Phoenix Islands Protected Area over 30 days\n\nGlobal Fishing Watch's AIS-based model recorded 1872.7 hours of apparent fishing inside the legal boundary of the Phoenix Islands Protected Area within this watch box, between 30 August and 25 September 2026, on 27 of 30 days, by vessels of 4 flag states. Across the whole reserve the model logged 3589.3 hours. A second pass using a tighter box, trimmed 15% in from each side, found 835 hours, or 45% of the total, well inside the area rather than hugging the edge, so this is not a boundary-mapping artefact.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not proof of illegal fishing. The reserve was closed to commercial fishing in 2015, but Kiribati announced a reopening in 2021, so effort here may be licensed, and zoning inside the reserve is not modelled. \"Apparent fishing\" is inferred from vessel movement, not observed catch, and transiting, drifting or waiting vessels can be misread as fishing. The period also falls in an El Niño phase, which can shift where fleets work.\n\nWhat would change our minds: licence or zoning records covering this area, a revised effort model, or the activity being gone at the seven-day revisit.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Apparent fishing hours in watch box (30 days): 1872.7 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29]\n- Apparent fishing hours across whole reserve: 3589.3 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29]\n- Days with activity out of 30: 27 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29]\n- Flag states involved: 4 [gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29]\n- Hours well inside the area (15% inset): 835 [gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29]\n- Share of hours well inside the area (%): 45 [gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Fishing here may be lawful: a reopening of the reserve was announced in 2021, and internal zoning is not modelled.\n- \"Apparent fishing\" is model-inferred from vessel movement, not observed catch; it can be wrong for any single track.\n- Only vessels broadcasting AIS are counted; those with AIS off, absent or spoofed are invisible, so the total is a floor, not a census.\n- Flag state is where a vessel is registered, not who owns or operates it; this finding assigns no blame.\n- Data lag is about 4 days, and the effort model is revised between dataset versions.\n- The boundary used is a copy of the WDPA polygon on 0.01° cells with a centre-in rule.\n- The check is method-level (a tighter inset box on the same dataset), not a separate data source; the seven-day revisit is still pending.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"50a8f5d7f96f94e9a5734560ffc1018eb62d8413434ef378e127d6d17f6708ab","transcriptSha256":"54c69d0f2e98c8522f7345d6a3968fc7052e6d7970163731ff67b4339e44e8e5","evidenceRefs":["gfw-fishing-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29","gfw-fishing-inset-mpa-phoenix-islands-2-2026-08-30-2026-09-29"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe8-c671-7aae-84b7-5883cd261697","findingId":"01a0ead8-3141-7832-a91c-0b51b88b7294","at":"2026-09-30T01:23:24.913Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"f9a70a474e6dd4fa08b4c86186146719c012a10c1ca9b3472b5a518f5d100da6","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All key numbers (1872.7h, 3589.3h reserve-wide, 27/30 days, 4 flag states, 835h/45% inset) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly.; Narration clearly states this is not proof of illegal fishing, citing the 2021 reopening announcement and unmodeled internal zoning as plausible innocent explanations.; Blind spots are thoroughly covered: AIS-only detection, model-inferred vs observed catch, transiting/drifting misclassification, flag-state≠owner, data lag, WDPA polygon caveats, and that the confirmation is method-level (same dataset) rather than an independent source.; No natural persons are named; only flag states and vessel counts are referenced.; AOI is not tagged or flagged as a control site (control:false), so this is a legitimate live finding, not a test case.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0efe8-c67b-79e3-83e4-047ce4e46a82","findingId":"01a0ead8-3141-7832-a91c-0b51b88b7294","at":"2026-09-30T01:23:24.923Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"a7380acf6e4a4b35263c764aaf56fae5c9a204406d908a1037c3428bdfebc35d","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":955,"leafHash":"7ca4b9814a20f8d7519abd35ef0445d18a27b15b0c21692010f23eca20417de5","proof":["337cbc3d005c2cb92aa02c8a2488635db0155a97f2be3457e9d81300ef2875ca","f3bc0f79cb25d5622409e71eee8b5a10f9fe01da094dac577f3bee1a428d4adc","4f99f736066a1d65d44475ffba8d8c0c5aeac86377deee569e0d5298830cab5a","dd2c9fe6ae688c5475aff3e46cbdfeaf464df870ad3a941c7f428943a0ab02f3","0045955efc1ce8cbac08a8733861af830ac685c100ede195c387e074963da34e","881a017e2581f97da1c46804177dfd5f924565433e1166705255b96348abe25d","a72c3339b408a45e95e937a87116707abc006bf01b9d03fe3f1a13fbcc11992a","d4a69eb9bd4aba2b04a0c06f8365d5c370a5591fa80d0e8a9962a94eea222b01","b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":971,"root":"65becba35e7b7adb50a8f9aed2d9bcf019d64a4302dd924c1051516e6bcfb1ac"}}