{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e6ae-8c99-7467-adae-fbbadc53f8a3","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"fires_in_protected","version":"1.0","params":{"dayRange":2,"minDetections":5,"minFrp":20,"revisitHours":18,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"title":"Fire cluster inside Virunga (COD) — tile 2/2: 6 hot detections","summary":"6 VIIRS detections with fire radiative power ≥ 20 MW within 2 days inside the watched boundary; density 2.191× the 30 km neighbourhood. Awaiting an independent signal (EONET event or a later pass).","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[29.2,-1.41]},"bbox":[29.02,-1.65,30.01,-0.355],"aoi":{"id":"wdpa-166889-2","name":"Virunga (COD) — tile 2/2","tags":["protected-area","discovered","cod","iucn-ii","national-park"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"hot detections per deg²","ringKm":30,"aoiValue":4.68,"regionalValue":2.136,"ratio":2.191}},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.","VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).","The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.","S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.","Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers."],"observedAt":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-28T06:20:16.112Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-01T01:21:27.173Z","createdBy":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-29T06:20:18.112Z","independence":"revisit","signal":{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-29-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-29T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[29.02,-1.65,30.01,-0.355],"dayRange":1,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"3 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-29).","values":{"detections":3}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[29.02,-1.65,30.01,-0.355],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"6 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 117.9 MW).","values":{"detections":6,"maxFrp":117.9}},{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-29","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-29T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[29.02,-1.65,30.01,-0.355],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"19 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 126.5 MW).","values":{"detections":19,"maxFrp":126.5}},{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-30","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[29.02,-1.65,30.01,-0.355],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"23 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 126.5 MW).","values":{"detections":23,"maxFrp":126.5}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f50c-d221-7607-89d6-92a1e9410aa1","findingId":"01a0e6ae-8c99-7467-adae-fbbadc53f8a3","at":"2026-10-01T01:20:53.281Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"7598d431abff5ef29cdb6419b0077e340d6ea71dee11b46cf427d61221225b2a","kind":"narrated","text":"Six hot fire detections inside Virunga (COD) tile 2/2, confirmed by a later satellite pass\n\nOn 27 September 2026 the NOAA-20 VIIRS sensor logged 6 fire detections with radiative power at or above 20 MW inside the watched boundary of Virunga (COD), tile 2/2, over a 2-day window, with the strongest at 117.9 MW. That is dense for the area: 4.68 hot detections per deg² against 2.136 in the surrounding 30 km ring, a ratio of 2.191. A later pass on 29 September picked up 3 hot detections again, which is the independent confirmation. Counts kept climbing on the same rolling window: 19 detections (max 126.5 MW) by 29 September and 23 detections (max 126.5 MW) by 30 September.\n\nWhat this is not: heat is not clearing, and the rule cannot separate a wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning. The region sits in an El Niño phase with an ONI of 1.8, a setting that favours drier fuel. The boundary used is the watchlist bounding box, not the legal park polygon, so some detections may fall outside the protected area. No natural-event record is logged nearby.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a burn-permit or prescribed-fire record, a corrected boundary placing the cluster outside the park, or clear-sky imagery showing cropland rather than forest.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hot detections in the triggering window: 6 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-27]\n- Strongest fire radiative power at trigger (MW): 117.9 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-27]\n- Hot detections on the confirming later pass: 3 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-29-revisit]\n- Hot detections by 30 September: 23 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-30]\n- Peak fire radiative power by 30 September (MW): 126.5 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-30]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Confirmation is a repeat pass from the same sensor, not a fully independent source.\n- Fire type is unknown: wildfire, agricultural burning and legal prescribed burns look alike to VIIRS.\n- The boundary is the watchlist bounding box, not the legal protected-area polygon.\n- VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke and short-lived fires between its roughly twice-daily overpasses.\n- A source outage on the NOAA-20 feed would look like calm, not absence of fire.\n- Nothing here speaks to cause or responsibility.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"f1da4d989faab5caa7775548589855f1d50a30c571a8112c4ac49727aa7a9945","transcriptSha256":"00937ada7b88b1216579ea9948eb4a7081ea61ffd0569a81eb28753f24bc8def","evidenceRefs":["firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-27","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-29-revisit","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-30"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f50d-562a-742f-a01e-58ac5dc53a89","findingId":"01a0e6ae-8c99-7467-adae-fbbadc53f8a3","at":"2026-10-01T01:21:27.082Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"6cc6a2070501eb0016002ce00ac68ce5837ce8fd85051836a704c27d116a1cff","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All quoted figures (6 detections, 117.9 MW, 19/23 counts, 126.5 MW, 3-detection revisit) match the evidence entries exactly.; The narration correctly flags that the revisit confirmation is same-sensor, not independent, and lists the boundary-bbox, cloud/short-fire miss, source-outage, fire-type-ambiguity and attribution caveats drawn directly from the blindSpots field.; No individuals or personal identifiers are referenced.; AOI tags/control field show this is not a control site (control:false, no 'control' tag), consistent with a real monitoring alert.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-28T06:20:16.112Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T06:20:18.112Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-30T06:20:19.972Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-30T18:20:20.537Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:20:53.281Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:21:27.082Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:21:27.173Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":7,"lastEventHash":"2126609d44af192c889b2a887d54a2e1b4e971d6234d5f2aab795a0aad74603d"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e6ae-8c99-7958-8fcf-6d5b4e29a87e","findingId":"01a0e6ae-8c99-7467-adae-fbbadc53f8a3","at":"2026-09-28T06:20:16.112Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"fires_in_protected","version":"1.0","params":{"dayRange":2,"minDetections":5,"minFrp":20,"revisitHours":18,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"title":"Fire cluster inside Virunga (COD) — tile 2/2: 6 hot detections","summary":"6 VIIRS detections with fire radiative power ≥ 20 MW within 2 days inside the watched boundary; density 2.191× the 30 km neighbourhood. Awaiting an independent signal (EONET event or a later pass).","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[29.2,-1.41]},"bbox":[29.02,-1.65,30.01,-0.355],"aoi":{"id":"wdpa-166889-2","name":"Virunga (COD) — tile 2/2","tags":["protected-area","discovered","cod","iucn-ii","national-park"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[29.02,-1.65,30.01,-0.355],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"6 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 117.9 MW).","values":{"detections":6,"maxFrp":117.9}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"hot detections per deg²","ringKm":30,"aoiValue":4.68,"regionalValue":2.136,"ratio":2.191}},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.","VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).","The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.","S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.","Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0ebd4-9f0b-7112-8396-82eaf0423915","findingId":"01a0e6ae-8c99-7467-adae-fbbadc53f8a3","at":"2026-09-29T06:20:18.112Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":"16ca18f99d22834194f04da45ae41abfe2f2f02a01c2f51011d53687aec3ea4c","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-29-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-29T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[29.02,-1.65,30.01,-0.355],"dayRange":1,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"3 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-29).","values":{"detections":3}},"independence":"revisit"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f0fb-1923-725d-95da-bcc637957c4e","findingId":"01a0e6ae-8c99-7467-adae-fbbadc53f8a3","at":"2026-09-30T06:20:19.972Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":"9624e915faa7523ea08a54511dd052f9b59f8c08883925d676ca95b2744edab8","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-29","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-29T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[29.02,-1.65,30.01,-0.355],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"19 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 126.5 MW).","values":{"detections":19,"maxFrp":126.5}}]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f38e-2a3b-78ff-b464-32b3d1afe642","findingId":"01a0e6ae-8c99-7467-adae-fbbadc53f8a3","at":"2026-09-30T18:20:20.537Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":"1c6316def2fa2d322d1a9007deda5cf29d6fba162751bafeb4431d310579181c","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-30","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-30T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[29.02,-1.65,30.01,-0.355],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"23 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 126.5 MW).","values":{"detections":23,"maxFrp":126.5}}]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f50c-d221-7607-89d6-92a1e9410aa1","findingId":"01a0e6ae-8c99-7467-adae-fbbadc53f8a3","at":"2026-10-01T01:20:53.281Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"7598d431abff5ef29cdb6419b0077e340d6ea71dee11b46cf427d61221225b2a","kind":"narrated","text":"Six hot fire detections inside Virunga (COD) tile 2/2, confirmed by a later satellite pass\n\nOn 27 September 2026 the NOAA-20 VIIRS sensor logged 6 fire detections with radiative power at or above 20 MW inside the watched boundary of Virunga (COD), tile 2/2, over a 2-day window, with the strongest at 117.9 MW. That is dense for the area: 4.68 hot detections per deg² against 2.136 in the surrounding 30 km ring, a ratio of 2.191. A later pass on 29 September picked up 3 hot detections again, which is the independent confirmation. Counts kept climbing on the same rolling window: 19 detections (max 126.5 MW) by 29 September and 23 detections (max 126.5 MW) by 30 September.\n\nWhat this is not: heat is not clearing, and the rule cannot separate a wildfire from managed, agricultural or legally prescribed burning. The region sits in an El Niño phase with an ONI of 1.8, a setting that favours drier fuel. The boundary used is the watchlist bounding box, not the legal park polygon, so some detections may fall outside the protected area. No natural-event record is logged nearby.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a burn-permit or prescribed-fire record, a corrected boundary placing the cluster outside the park, or clear-sky imagery showing cropland rather than forest.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hot detections in the triggering window: 6 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-27]\n- Strongest fire radiative power at trigger (MW): 117.9 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-27]\n- Hot detections on the confirming later pass: 3 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-29-revisit]\n- Hot detections by 30 September: 23 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-30]\n- Peak fire radiative power by 30 September (MW): 126.5 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-30]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Confirmation is a repeat pass from the same sensor, not a fully independent source.\n- Fire type is unknown: wildfire, agricultural burning and legal prescribed burns look alike to VIIRS.\n- The boundary is the watchlist bounding box, not the legal protected-area polygon.\n- VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke and short-lived fires between its roughly twice-daily overpasses.\n- A source outage on the NOAA-20 feed would look like calm, not absence of fire.\n- Nothing here speaks to cause or responsibility.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"f1da4d989faab5caa7775548589855f1d50a30c571a8112c4ac49727aa7a9945","transcriptSha256":"00937ada7b88b1216579ea9948eb4a7081ea61ffd0569a81eb28753f24bc8def","evidenceRefs":["firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-27","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-29-revisit","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-166889-2-2026-09-30"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f50d-562a-742f-a01e-58ac5dc53a89","findingId":"01a0e6ae-8c99-7467-adae-fbbadc53f8a3","at":"2026-10-01T01:21:27.082Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"6cc6a2070501eb0016002ce00ac68ce5837ce8fd85051836a704c27d116a1cff","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All quoted figures (6 detections, 117.9 MW, 19/23 counts, 126.5 MW, 3-detection revisit) match the evidence entries exactly.; The narration correctly flags that the revisit confirmation is same-sensor, not independent, and lists the boundary-bbox, cloud/short-fire miss, source-outage, fire-type-ambiguity and attribution caveats drawn directly from the blindSpots field.; No individuals or personal identifiers are referenced.; AOI tags/control field show this is not a control site (control:false, no 'control' tag), consistent with a real monitoring alert.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f50d-5685-7450-9b5d-397af07f83a8","findingId":"01a0e6ae-8c99-7467-adae-fbbadc53f8a3","at":"2026-10-01T01:21:27.173Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"5fac19d3a503fcce85368b286e6773cbca476a02e926cf3dbc1dd14fc511fd70","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":1061,"leafHash":"b961af196abf7367167084a51c53ab94e1e1ab55807506edb91661654ac34e53","proof":["fe79f2ef2f30ff52965a008d3d02befe1067063a78b57b3ef5ad32e31512f887","a2d418ff96b1905d8d461300c94e66cb8101af68aa78f00f94f8ef15a6262fb1","634cea39ffad8cd6ca64a61a978472de885229f18900b07276d05bb63ebca441","5d6ad5934cef6c5c6f6e8fd06a2587f724f01181f08383644dcc254da076b662","19527bd7103a88bea6823300d2b5e27043c6e89e467417e2f10e3f87a795191f","90a6a1c0a261ad9f9f60e788c08236eafd993fb4cdb01ea5b4a58da45af5ae7a","64decc40b792c748c3c5f5f534f82c6ed232929960b40f30a38f3d6c3404d29f","8c9c126ddde5463be4c66b848b31cefa5e2e8b034ab906e8158680a170325566"],"size":1104,"root":"2d46ab865c7813b8991ed0d713906b15bef1321a022b8d382a1069dac9d5686a"}}