{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e554-4c3e-70d9-af19-0e0f270485c4","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":1070,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":107,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso (Brazil) — tile 1/2: 1346.7 ha in 90 d","summary":"111920 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 1346.7 ha between 2026-06-30 and 2026-09-28; AOI alert density is 0.721× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-57.74,-12.755],[-56.73,-12.755],[-56.73,-11.7],[-57.74,-11.7],[-57.74,-12.755]]]},"bbox":[-57.74,-12.755,-56.73,-11.7],"aoi":{"id":"bra-12-77-1","name":"Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso (Brazil) — tile 1/2","tags":["forest-hotspot","discovered","bra","brazil","mato-grosso","nova-maringa"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":1263.854,"regionalValue":1752.674,"ratio":0.721},"notes":["Living value (benefit transfer, order of magnitude): 1346.7 ha of tropical forest ≈ $9,047,131/yr alive (band $2,657,039–$35,050,561, 2020 USD), ≈ $904,713,100 over 100 yr ($389,916,433 NPV @ 2 %). Source: Costanza R. et al. et al. — a floor for one kind of value, not a price.","The watch area is 31.3 % converted land (MapBiomas 2024: pasture, crops, mosaic, urban, mining)."]},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."],"observedAt":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-28T00:00:56.529Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-28T01:32:13.885Z","createdBy":"system:forest_loss@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-28T00:00:56.529Z","independence":"sensor","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-1-2026-05-16..2026-09-28","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-57.74,-12.755,-56.73,-11.7],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-16","dateB":"2026-09-28","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.165 (2026-05-16 → 2026-09-28); valid pixels 100% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.16460240001431226,"validPctA":100,"validPctB":100}}},"evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-1-2026-06-30..2026-09-28","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-57.74,-12.755,-56.73,-11.7],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"111920 alerts (≥ high confidence), 1346.7 ha, 2026-06-30…2026-09-28.","values":{"alerts":111920,"ha":1346.7,"high_alerts":109048,"high_ha":1312.13,"highest_alerts":2872,"highest_ha":34.57,"living_value_100y_npv2_usd":389916433,"living_value_100y_usd":904713100,"living_value_usd_yr":9047131,"watch_area_converted_pct":31.3}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a4-022f-7dad-a098-2b9cc0ca262e","findingId":"01a0e554-4c3e-70d9-af19-0e0f270485c4","at":"2026-09-28T01:32:06.063Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"2f6aa5f214030b78f7b061ec2ed60bff42464b4a5724baafca696af8185de0fd","kind":"narrated","text":"1,346.7 ha of forest loss flagged near Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso, over 90 days\n\nBetween 30 June and 28 September 2026, satellite alert systems recorded 111,920 high-confidence deforestation alerts across a watch tile near Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso, covering 1,346.7 hectares. An independent optical check using Sentinel-2 imagery supports it: median greenness (NDVI) across the tile fell by -0.165 between 16 May and 28 September, with 100% of pixels usable in both composites — so cloud is not hiding the picture here.\n\nWhat this is not: the alerts cannot tell clearing apart from fire, storm damage, selective logging or plantation harvest, and none of it speaks to who acted or whether it was lawful. Conditions argue for caution too — a strong El Niño (ONI 1.8) can push vegetation indices down through drought alone, and the tile is already 31.3% converted land, where regrowth and harvest cycles mimic loss. Notably, alert density here is 0.721× the surrounding 25 km ring, so this tile is quieter than its neighbourhood.\n\nWhat would change our mind: high-resolution imagery showing burn scars or standing-but-stressed canopy, fire-detection records for the window, or concession and protected-area layers reframing the event.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hectares with high-confidence alerts (90 days): 1346.7 [gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-1-2026-06-30..2026-09-28]\n- Alert count (≥ high confidence): 111920 [gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-1-2026-06-30..2026-09-28]\n- Watch area already converted (%): 31.3 [gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-1-2026-06-30..2026-09-28]\n- Change in median NDVI (May→Sep): -0.16460240001431226 [s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-1-2026-05-16..2026-09-28]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 100 [s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-1-2026-05-16..2026-09-28]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Alerts cannot separate legal clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging from illegal clearing.\n- Alerts lag reality by roughly 1–2 weeks, so a late burst would be undercounted.\n- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can look like loss in a tile that is already 31.3% converted.\n- El Niño (ONI 1.8) drought can depress NDVI without canopy removal.\n- Alert density is 0.721× the 25 km neighbourhood — below the regional rate, not a local outlier.\n- Living-value figures in the context notes are order-of-magnitude benefit transfers, not prices; they are not cited here as measurements.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"8438a386efe2f1adc3e5fca44105f32e239ff99b162753703f3f47bbf8c006b9","transcriptSha256":"b17d56cda2ec9dee2654a9b47ec67598484bc38b0541b41311654d2862c73d6f","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-1-2026-06-30..2026-09-28","s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-1-2026-05-16..2026-09-28"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a4-20a8-7335-a77f-156bb6608e79","findingId":"01a0e554-4c3e-70d9-af19-0e0f270485c4","at":"2026-09-28T01:32:13.864Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"50692b92302a1f6ddccca3c20f1deff22840087076a96d7bdb66ec2d4174c600","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (alerts, ha, NDVI delta, valid pixel %, conversion %, density ratio) match the evidence exactly.; Narration explicitly flags key blind spots: alert-type ambiguity, lag, regrowth/harvest confusion, El Niño drought effect, and the sub-regional density ratio.; No natural persons are named or identifiable.; AOI is not tagged control (control:false), consistent with a legitimate hotspot finding.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-28T00:00:56.529Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T00:00:56.529Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:32:06.063Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:32:13.864Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:32:13.885Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"72c9bb7e1fc85b011e875b75911a229979f6519ab3945ef31c1cf974db9b3213"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e554-4c3e-7553-b4fa-9a68c0885a6e","findingId":"01a0e554-4c3e-70d9-af19-0e0f270485c4","at":"2026-09-28T00:00:56.529Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":1070,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":107,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso (Brazil) — tile 1/2: 1346.7 ha in 90 d","summary":"111920 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 1346.7 ha between 2026-06-30 and 2026-09-28; AOI alert density is 0.721× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-57.74,-12.755],[-56.73,-12.755],[-56.73,-11.7],[-57.74,-11.7],[-57.74,-12.755]]]},"bbox":[-57.74,-12.755,-56.73,-11.7],"aoi":{"id":"bra-12-77-1","name":"Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso (Brazil) — tile 1/2","tags":["forest-hotspot","discovered","bra","brazil","mato-grosso","nova-maringa"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-1-2026-06-30..2026-09-28","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-57.74,-12.755,-56.73,-11.7],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"111920 alerts (≥ high confidence), 1346.7 ha, 2026-06-30…2026-09-28.","values":{"alerts":111920,"ha":1346.7,"high_alerts":109048,"high_ha":1312.13,"highest_alerts":2872,"highest_ha":34.57,"living_value_100y_npv2_usd":389916433,"living_value_100y_usd":904713100,"living_value_usd_yr":9047131,"watch_area_converted_pct":31.3}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":1263.854,"regionalValue":1752.674,"ratio":0.721},"notes":["Living value (benefit transfer, order of magnitude): 1346.7 ha of tropical forest ≈ $9,047,131/yr alive (band $2,657,039–$35,050,561, 2020 USD), ≈ $904,713,100 over 100 yr ($389,916,433 NPV @ 2 %). Source: Costanza R. et al. et al. — a floor for one kind of value, not a price.","The watch area is 31.3 % converted land (MapBiomas 2024: pasture, crops, mosaic, urban, mining)."]},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e554-6b08-7b31-8830-265fd596f7e0","findingId":"01a0e554-4c3e-70d9-af19-0e0f270485c4","at":"2026-09-28T00:00:56.529Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":"251905b24a9ce1dc972e5a1e7fee82ad461a0bdf55a2685e42e2e9dbaf79894f","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-1-2026-05-16..2026-09-28","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-57.74,-12.755,-56.73,-11.7],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-16","dateB":"2026-09-28","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.165 (2026-05-16 → 2026-09-28); valid pixels 100% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.16460240001431226,"validPctA":100,"validPctB":100}},"independence":"sensor"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a4-022f-7dad-a098-2b9cc0ca262e","findingId":"01a0e554-4c3e-70d9-af19-0e0f270485c4","at":"2026-09-28T01:32:06.063Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"2f6aa5f214030b78f7b061ec2ed60bff42464b4a5724baafca696af8185de0fd","kind":"narrated","text":"1,346.7 ha of forest loss flagged near Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso, over 90 days\n\nBetween 30 June and 28 September 2026, satellite alert systems recorded 111,920 high-confidence deforestation alerts across a watch tile near Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso, covering 1,346.7 hectares. An independent optical check using Sentinel-2 imagery supports it: median greenness (NDVI) across the tile fell by -0.165 between 16 May and 28 September, with 100% of pixels usable in both composites — so cloud is not hiding the picture here.\n\nWhat this is not: the alerts cannot tell clearing apart from fire, storm damage, selective logging or plantation harvest, and none of it speaks to who acted or whether it was lawful. Conditions argue for caution too — a strong El Niño (ONI 1.8) can push vegetation indices down through drought alone, and the tile is already 31.3% converted land, where regrowth and harvest cycles mimic loss. Notably, alert density here is 0.721× the surrounding 25 km ring, so this tile is quieter than its neighbourhood.\n\nWhat would change our mind: high-resolution imagery showing burn scars or standing-but-stressed canopy, fire-detection records for the window, or concession and protected-area layers reframing the event.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hectares with high-confidence alerts (90 days): 1346.7 [gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-1-2026-06-30..2026-09-28]\n- Alert count (≥ high confidence): 111920 [gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-1-2026-06-30..2026-09-28]\n- Watch area already converted (%): 31.3 [gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-1-2026-06-30..2026-09-28]\n- Change in median NDVI (May→Sep): -0.16460240001431226 [s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-1-2026-05-16..2026-09-28]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 100 [s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-1-2026-05-16..2026-09-28]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Alerts cannot separate legal clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging from illegal clearing.\n- Alerts lag reality by roughly 1–2 weeks, so a late burst would be undercounted.\n- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can look like loss in a tile that is already 31.3% converted.\n- El Niño (ONI 1.8) drought can depress NDVI without canopy removal.\n- Alert density is 0.721× the 25 km neighbourhood — below the regional rate, not a local outlier.\n- Living-value figures in the context notes are order-of-magnitude benefit transfers, not prices; they are not cited here as measurements.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"8438a386efe2f1adc3e5fca44105f32e239ff99b162753703f3f47bbf8c006b9","transcriptSha256":"b17d56cda2ec9dee2654a9b47ec67598484bc38b0541b41311654d2862c73d6f","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-1-2026-06-30..2026-09-28","s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-1-2026-05-16..2026-09-28"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a4-20a8-7335-a77f-156bb6608e79","findingId":"01a0e554-4c3e-70d9-af19-0e0f270485c4","at":"2026-09-28T01:32:13.864Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"50692b92302a1f6ddccca3c20f1deff22840087076a96d7bdb66ec2d4174c600","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (alerts, ha, NDVI delta, valid pixel %, conversion %, density ratio) match the evidence exactly.; Narration explicitly flags key blind spots: alert-type ambiguity, lag, regrowth/harvest confusion, El Niño drought effect, and the sub-regional density ratio.; No natural persons are named or identifiable.; AOI is not tagged control (control:false), consistent with a legitimate hotspot finding.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5a4-20bd-7704-8bee-544e8a01f336","findingId":"01a0e554-4c3e-70d9-af19-0e0f270485c4","at":"2026-09-28T01:32:13.885Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"dacd9d48a39c3d23d0449d5990a1a86a8b29407c4173400da0d382fd9a1b0ba9","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":704,"leafHash":"97517b4d5deef03d013fb1d95951e733df69a0a2573095e1f8d908ef9791f7bf","proof":["8ec1c31277f4abe09763f7c746ffc066fc3d8af815458ff68953ad7e428a580e","e11eefc9011cfc1e875e2d7a0ca31a233a983d32c16b5802e7ffb25705f8785e","1dd8b669176ba23a234c3887e513118ce5f8fd15a154b8fdd926ee02760d8174","a7fdef2cf5b5a712272dd0a660098eb2cfa6428b0896d7a072066e511d831900","227a1a00b64043f08073431f63834a568f922396dea9ef77ee795cd7e34484d7","4dcd70c622d414afaa3e0c21c3cf5233386d63f463994a07fff4e5e92c390f72","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":714,"root":"23ed27dda9a2da2abe3dbd3567303dfd6d402bbc077a4783e4e79b987c5fec16"}}