{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e1f0-d1c6-75a9-a7ec-2cdbd2279c64","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"air_quality","lat":-6.2,"lon":106.85,"minDays":3}},"title":"Jakarta (Indonesia): fine-particle pollution above the WHO limit 7 days running — 47.8 µg/m³, 3.2× the guideline","summary":"Modelled PM2.5 near -6.2, 106.85 averaged 47.8 µg/m³ on 2026-09-26; every one of the last 7 full days was above the WHO 24-hour guideline of 15 µg/m³ (mean 42.1, worst day 52.4). Fine particles reach deep into the lungs; a later day still above the limit confirms the episode.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[106.85,-6.2]},"bbox":[106.6,-6.45,107.1,-5.95],"aoi":{"id":"air-jakarta","name":"Jakarta (Indonesia)","tags":["air-quality","city"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"notes":["Dataset: Copernicus CAMS global forecast/analysis (~40 km) via Open-Meteo, hourly PM2.5 averaged to UTC days; last 7 days, forecast hours excluded."]},"blindSpots":["Sea ice: extent is area with ≥ 15% ice, not volume or thickness — thin new ice counts the same as old multi-year ice.","Sea ice: passive microwave misreads melt ponds and coastal cells; the p10 line is 1981–2010, so a warming world crosses it more often.","Marine heatwave: one 0.25° cell stands for a whole reef or sea; the baseline is only the previous 10 years (already warm), sampled every ~10 days.","Marine heatwave: OISST lags ~2 weeks and sees the surface skin only — heat below a few metres, where corals live, is not measured.","River: GloFAS discharge is modelled, not gauged; the cell may miss the main channel, and dams, diversions and levees are poorly represented.","River: the 2× line is against the all-season mean, so monsoon and snowmelt rivers cross it every peak season unless minSeasonalRatio also requires it to be high for the month.","Air quality: CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a monitor; it smooths city hotspots and can misplace dust and smoke plumes.","Air quality: PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not judged, and the WHO guideline is a health line, not a legal limit.","ENSO: ONI is a 3-month running mean released monthly, so an event is declared months after it starts; the confirmation is one OISST point, not the Niño3.4 box.","Earthquakes: magnitude says nothing about damage — depth, building codes and population decide that; USGS review is the same provider checking its own event.","Earthquakes: a sweep more than 30 days late misses older events; only the strongest quake per region per case window leads the case.","All: global zero-key feeds can go stale or be revised; a threshold crossing is a signal to look, not a verdict on cause or impact."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-29T01:24:41.465Z","createdBy":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-27T19:40:20.460Z","independence":"revisit","signal":{"id":"cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-27-persist","kind":"series","source":"cams-global","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/air-quality-api","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"guideline":15,"indicator":"air_quality","lat":-6.2,"lon":106.85}},"summary":"Still above 15 µg/m³ on 2026-09-27: 51.8 µg/m³ (8 days running).","values":{"days_over":8,"pm25_daily_ugm3":51.8}}},"evidence":[{"id":"cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26","kind":"series","source":"cams-global","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/air-quality-api","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"guideline":15,"indicator":"air_quality","lat":-6.2,"lon":106.85,"minDays":3}},"summary":"CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 7 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-26 = 47.8.","values":{"days_over":7,"guideline_ugm3":15,"pm25_daily_ugm3":47.8,"pm25_max_ugm3":52.4,"pm25_mean_ugm3":42.1,"times_guideline":3.2}},{"id":"cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-27","kind":"series","source":"cams-global","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/air-quality-api","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"guideline":15,"indicator":"air_quality","lat":-6.2,"lon":106.85,"minDays":3}},"summary":"CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 7 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-27 = 56.3.","values":{"days_over":7,"guideline_ugm3":15,"pm25_daily_ugm3":56.3,"pm25_max_ugm3":56.3,"pm25_mean_ugm3":44.4,"times_guideline":3.8}},{"id":"cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-28","kind":"series","source":"cams-global","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/air-quality-api","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"guideline":15,"indicator":"air_quality","lat":-6.2,"lon":106.85,"minDays":3}},"summary":"CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 8 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-28 = 51.5.","values":{"days_over":8,"guideline_ugm3":15,"pm25_daily_ugm3":51.5,"pm25_max_ugm3":56.3,"pm25_mean_ugm3":45.3,"times_guideline":3.4}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac3-698a-707b-a7b8-c4f32c7cc449","findingId":"01a0e1f0-d1c6-75a9-a7ec-2cdbd2279c64","at":"2026-09-29T01:24:30.218Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"7e9d918b3100bfba2b432cd2888a0f231cd76c293bd1cfaac94bcbea0f17b7d6","kind":"narrated","text":"Jakarta air: modelled PM2.5 at 47.8 µg/m³, 3.2× the WHO limit, with 7 straight days above it\n\nCopernicus CAMS model data for the grid cell over Jakarta put average fine-particle pollution at 47.8 µg/m³ on 26 September 2026 — 3.2 times the WHO 24-hour guideline of 15 µg/m³. Every one of the previous 7 full days was also above that line, averaging 42.1 µg/m³ with a worst day of 52.4 µg/m³. A revisit the next day found 51.8 µg/m³, an eighth day running, so this looks like a sustained episode rather than a one-day spike.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a street-level measurement. CAMS is a roughly 40 km model that smooths city hotspots and can misplace smoke or dust plumes, so the true figure in any one neighbourhood may be higher or lower. It judges PM2.5 only — ozone, nitrogen dioxide and indoor air are not assessed — and the WHO figure is a health guideline, not a legal limit. The record says nothing about where the particles came from. Context notes an El Niño phase, which can favour drier, more stagnant air, and no nearby natural events were logged.\n\nWhat would change our mind: ground monitor readings near or below the guideline, or a model revision bringing daily means back under 15 µg/m³.\n\nKey numbers:\n- PM2.5 daily mean, 26 Sep 2026 (µg/m³): 47.8 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26]\n- WHO 24-hour guideline (µg/m³): 15 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26]\n- Times the guideline: 3.2 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26]\n- Consecutive days above the guideline: 7 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26]\n- 7-day mean (µg/m³): 42.1 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26]\n- Worst day in the window (µg/m³): 52.4 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26]\n- Confirming revisit, 27 Sep 2026 (µg/m³): 51.8 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-27-persist]\n- Days running above the guideline at revisit: 8 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-27-persist]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a ground monitor; city hotspots are smoothed and plumes can be misplaced.\n- The confirmation is a later reading from the same dataset (a revisit), not an independent instrument.\n- PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not assessed.\n- The WHO 15 µg/m³ figure is a health guideline, not a legal limit.\n- No source or cause is identified; global feeds can go stale or be revised.\n- ENSO phase is background context only, not an explanation of this episode.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"ceeeada8b5028a2ec7286e10d147d40c5f3d75c624f98453468c1b2cf64cd26b","transcriptSha256":"67937b87f5844fd2d150f246dff20f687a8a0c6686a525061f9a42a8ea191235","evidenceRefs":["cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26","cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-27-persist"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac3-9560-73f8-b6ab-834bf61a2904","findingId":"01a0e1f0-d1c6-75a9-a7ec-2cdbd2279c64","at":"2026-09-29T01:24:41.440Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"c4aacbc8936600ea7bd35717435ee48fa454801dc0eae26838f640ba543bdd86","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (47.8, 3.2x, 7-day streak, 42.1 mean, 52.4 max, 51.8 revisit, 8-day streak) match the evidence exactly; Narration explicitly flags CAMS model resolution/smoothing, PM2.5-only scope, guideline vs legal limit, same-dataset revisit vs independent instrument, and ENSO as background not cause—matching the listed blind spots; No individuals or personal identifiers are mentioned; AOI is 'air-jakarta' tagged air-quality/city, not a control AOI, so the finding is a legitimate signal worth publishing","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T19:40:20.460Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:44:34.592Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T19:40:22.178Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:24:30.218Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:24:41.440Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:24:41.465Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":7,"lastEventHash":"d19cc4a6d30728d0a3ac273de0b7e5cd067f4a50bb4c49d2da8e1fcea775b78f"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e1f0-d1c6-76c0-8291-10e3c218cb1b","findingId":"01a0e1f0-d1c6-75a9-a7ec-2cdbd2279c64","at":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"air_quality","lat":-6.2,"lon":106.85,"minDays":3}},"title":"Jakarta (Indonesia): fine-particle pollution above the WHO limit 7 days running — 47.8 µg/m³, 3.2× the guideline","summary":"Modelled PM2.5 near -6.2, 106.85 averaged 47.8 µg/m³ on 2026-09-26; every one of the last 7 full days was above the WHO 24-hour guideline of 15 µg/m³ (mean 42.1, worst day 52.4). Fine particles reach deep into the lungs; a later day still above the limit confirms the episode.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[106.85,-6.2]},"bbox":[106.6,-6.45,107.1,-5.95],"aoi":{"id":"air-jakarta","name":"Jakarta (Indonesia)","tags":["air-quality","city"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26","kind":"series","source":"cams-global","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/air-quality-api","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"guideline":15,"indicator":"air_quality","lat":-6.2,"lon":106.85,"minDays":3}},"summary":"CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 7 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-26 = 47.8.","values":{"days_over":7,"guideline_ugm3":15,"pm25_daily_ugm3":47.8,"pm25_max_ugm3":52.4,"pm25_mean_ugm3":42.1,"times_guideline":3.2}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"notes":["Dataset: Copernicus CAMS global forecast/analysis (~40 km) via Open-Meteo, hourly PM2.5 averaged to UTC days; last 7 days, forecast hours excluded."]},"blindSpots":["Sea ice: extent is area with ≥ 15% ice, not volume or thickness — thin new ice counts the same as old multi-year ice.","Sea ice: passive microwave misreads melt ponds and coastal cells; the p10 line is 1981–2010, so a warming world crosses it more often.","Marine heatwave: one 0.25° cell stands for a whole reef or sea; the baseline is only the previous 10 years (already warm), sampled every ~10 days.","Marine heatwave: OISST lags ~2 weeks and sees the surface skin only — heat below a few metres, where corals live, is not measured.","River: GloFAS discharge is modelled, not gauged; the cell may miss the main channel, and dams, diversions and levees are poorly represented.","River: the 2× line is against the all-season mean, so monsoon and snowmelt rivers cross it every peak season unless minSeasonalRatio also requires it to be high for the month.","Air quality: CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a monitor; it smooths city hotspots and can misplace dust and smoke plumes.","Air quality: PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not judged, and the WHO guideline is a health line, not a legal limit.","ENSO: ONI is a 3-month running mean released monthly, so an event is declared months after it starts; the confirmation is one OISST point, not the Niño3.4 box.","Earthquakes: magnitude says nothing about damage — depth, building codes and population decide that; USGS review is the same provider checking its own event.","Earthquakes: a sweep more than 30 days late misses older events; only the strongest quake per region per case window leads the case.","All: global zero-key feeds can go stale or be revised; a threshold crossing is a signal to look, not a verdict on cause or impact."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e464-200a-7f0e-89a3-bdfca5e6731c","findingId":"01a0e1f0-d1c6-75a9-a7ec-2cdbd2279c64","at":"2026-09-27T19:40:20.460Z","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","prev":"4a3c4b879b11129101d46d0f1ba1e050bf274e1ab0a15b64b13cd9d0997b12d7","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-27-persist","kind":"series","source":"cams-global","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/air-quality-api","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"guideline":15,"indicator":"air_quality","lat":-6.2,"lon":106.85}},"summary":"Still above 15 µg/m³ on 2026-09-27: 51.8 µg/m³ (8 days running).","values":{"days_over":8,"pm25_daily_ugm3":51.8}},"independence":"revisit"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5b2-13a2-7b39-b01c-3e7c6b627d5d","findingId":"01a0e1f0-d1c6-75a9-a7ec-2cdbd2279c64","at":"2026-09-28T01:44:34.592Z","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","prev":"86b63f0576fd7913e22bbe2513dd4bcc3fef3dc73a46c3db8a4b5cbe4d9fc8f3","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-27","kind":"series","source":"cams-global","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/air-quality-api","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"guideline":15,"indicator":"air_quality","lat":-6.2,"lon":106.85,"minDays":3}},"summary":"CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 7 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-27 = 56.3.","values":{"days_over":7,"guideline_ugm3":15,"pm25_daily_ugm3":56.3,"pm25_max_ugm3":56.3,"pm25_mean_ugm3":44.4,"times_guideline":3.8}}]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e98a-6484-7a5d-b27e-219d4b86a8b7","findingId":"01a0e1f0-d1c6-75a9-a7ec-2cdbd2279c64","at":"2026-09-28T19:40:22.178Z","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","prev":"d1f43a376b3b8fef2e80001a1a13d0a2fba6ec94fd189fb667839ad4d06bc5bb","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-28","kind":"series","source":"cams-global","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/air-quality-api","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"guideline":15,"indicator":"air_quality","lat":-6.2,"lon":106.85,"minDays":3}},"summary":"CAMS PM2.5 daily means (UTC, ≥ 18 h): 8 trailing day(s) above 15 µg/m³, latest 2026-09-28 = 51.5.","values":{"days_over":8,"guideline_ugm3":15,"pm25_daily_ugm3":51.5,"pm25_max_ugm3":56.3,"pm25_mean_ugm3":45.3,"times_guideline":3.4}}]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac3-698a-707b-a7b8-c4f32c7cc449","findingId":"01a0e1f0-d1c6-75a9-a7ec-2cdbd2279c64","at":"2026-09-29T01:24:30.218Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"7e9d918b3100bfba2b432cd2888a0f231cd76c293bd1cfaac94bcbea0f17b7d6","kind":"narrated","text":"Jakarta air: modelled PM2.5 at 47.8 µg/m³, 3.2× the WHO limit, with 7 straight days above it\n\nCopernicus CAMS model data for the grid cell over Jakarta put average fine-particle pollution at 47.8 µg/m³ on 26 September 2026 — 3.2 times the WHO 24-hour guideline of 15 µg/m³. Every one of the previous 7 full days was also above that line, averaging 42.1 µg/m³ with a worst day of 52.4 µg/m³. A revisit the next day found 51.8 µg/m³, an eighth day running, so this looks like a sustained episode rather than a one-day spike.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a street-level measurement. CAMS is a roughly 40 km model that smooths city hotspots and can misplace smoke or dust plumes, so the true figure in any one neighbourhood may be higher or lower. It judges PM2.5 only — ozone, nitrogen dioxide and indoor air are not assessed — and the WHO figure is a health guideline, not a legal limit. The record says nothing about where the particles came from. Context notes an El Niño phase, which can favour drier, more stagnant air, and no nearby natural events were logged.\n\nWhat would change our mind: ground monitor readings near or below the guideline, or a model revision bringing daily means back under 15 µg/m³.\n\nKey numbers:\n- PM2.5 daily mean, 26 Sep 2026 (µg/m³): 47.8 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26]\n- WHO 24-hour guideline (µg/m³): 15 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26]\n- Times the guideline: 3.2 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26]\n- Consecutive days above the guideline: 7 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26]\n- 7-day mean (µg/m³): 42.1 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26]\n- Worst day in the window (µg/m³): 52.4 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26]\n- Confirming revisit, 27 Sep 2026 (µg/m³): 51.8 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-27-persist]\n- Days running above the guideline at revisit: 8 [cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-27-persist]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a ground monitor; city hotspots are smoothed and plumes can be misplaced.\n- The confirmation is a later reading from the same dataset (a revisit), not an independent instrument.\n- PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not assessed.\n- The WHO 15 µg/m³ figure is a health guideline, not a legal limit.\n- No source or cause is identified; global feeds can go stale or be revised.\n- ENSO phase is background context only, not an explanation of this episode.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"ceeeada8b5028a2ec7286e10d147d40c5f3d75c624f98453468c1b2cf64cd26b","transcriptSha256":"67937b87f5844fd2d150f246dff20f687a8a0c6686a525061f9a42a8ea191235","evidenceRefs":["cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-26","cams-pm25-air-jakarta-2026-09-27-persist"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac3-9560-73f8-b6ab-834bf61a2904","findingId":"01a0e1f0-d1c6-75a9-a7ec-2cdbd2279c64","at":"2026-09-29T01:24:41.440Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"c4aacbc8936600ea7bd35717435ee48fa454801dc0eae26838f640ba543bdd86","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (47.8, 3.2x, 7-day streak, 42.1 mean, 52.4 max, 51.8 revisit, 8-day streak) match the evidence exactly; Narration explicitly flags CAMS model resolution/smoothing, PM2.5-only scope, guideline vs legal limit, same-dataset revisit vs independent instrument, and ENSO as background not cause—matching the listed blind spots; No individuals or personal identifiers are mentioned; AOI is 'air-jakarta' tagged air-quality/city, not a control AOI, so the finding is a legitimate signal worth publishing","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac3-9579-72bb-904f-20399384d2f7","findingId":"01a0e1f0-d1c6-75a9-a7ec-2cdbd2279c64","at":"2026-09-29T01:24:41.465Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"f3074f9cdf6b1922c0f3e59a47d39aeeaf4b5aede24a69634d4309c82a363179","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":853,"leafHash":"5a4e568d33dad24769c5fcb241a3e6e1f61ed4d1cf41f051df358dcfa3420c9a","proof":["94aae1b511ce29e63c7cfbbb37c43621ca77021f4f70c98c5aee12b4f87f31cd","5e8532bb66f38819a362e52eea9998bec42bc015738e255b6c13e815a0ef77ee","aea69075b9d095d178d2edc12756df29bc1989f8abdec24102807ec1963252c1","71a85e208c2f8dc340522e3deb6239caf3cc060a8c75b6fd8407e3d5de5d060d","b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":854,"root":"842817ab26f9a2521ef7ad6014dcb954a959e9359f578a89f5c3a92c7df7aace"}}