{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7557-907b-5a29808b158c","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5,"minDays":5}},"title":"Marine heatwave at Western Mediterranean (Balearic Sea): the sea surface is 2.1 °C warmer than normal, 16 days running","summary":"Sea-surface temperature at 38.625, 5.625 was 28.18 °C on 2026-09-11, 2.12 °C above the same time of year in 2016–2025 (26.06 °C). It has been at least 1.5 °C above normal for 16 consecutive days (peak 2.77 °C). Heat this persistent stresses corals, kelp and fisheries; a later day still this warm confirms it.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[5.625,38.625]},"bbox":[5,38,6,39],"aoi":{"id":"mhw-mediterranean","name":"Western Mediterranean (Balearic Sea)","tags":["ocean","marine-heatwave"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"notes":["Dataset: NOAA OISST v2.1 (0.25°, daily, satellite + in-situ) via ERDDAP. Window 2026-07-29…2026-09-11; climatology = same ±15 days of 2016–2025."]},"blindSpots":["Sea ice: extent is area with ≥ 15% ice, not volume or thickness — thin new ice counts the same as old multi-year ice.","Sea ice: passive microwave misreads melt ponds and coastal cells; the p10 line is 1981–2010, so a warming world crosses it more often.","Marine heatwave: one 0.25° cell stands for a whole reef or sea; the baseline is only the previous 10 years (already warm), sampled every ~10 days.","Marine heatwave: OISST lags ~2 weeks and sees the surface skin only — heat below a few metres, where corals live, is not measured.","River: GloFAS discharge is modelled, not gauged; the cell may miss the main channel, and dams, diversions and levees are poorly represented.","River: the 2× line is against the all-season mean, so monsoon and snowmelt rivers cross it every peak season unless minSeasonalRatio also requires it to be high for the month.","Air quality: CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a monitor; it smooths city hotspots and can misplace dust and smoke plumes.","Air quality: PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not judged, and the WHO guideline is a health line, not a legal limit.","ENSO: ONI is a 3-month running mean released monthly, so an event is declared months after it starts; the confirmation is one OISST point, not the Niño3.4 box.","Earthquakes: magnitude says nothing about damage — depth, building codes and population decide that; USGS review is the same provider checking its own event.","Earthquakes: a sweep more than 30 days late misses older events; only the strongest quake per region per case window leads the case.","All: global zero-key feeds can go stale or be revised; a threshold crossing is a signal to look, not a verdict on cause or impact."],"observedAt":"2026-09-11T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","updatedAt":"2026-10-01T01:25:05.062Z","createdBy":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-27T19:40:20.460Z","independence":"revisit","signal":{"id":"oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-12-persist","kind":"series","source":"noaa-oisst-v2.1","datetime":"2026-09-12T00:00:00Z","href":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5}},"summary":"Still 1.98 °C above normal on 2026-09-12 (17 days running).","values":{"anomaly_c":1.98,"days_over":17}}},"evidence":[{"id":"oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11","kind":"series","source":"noaa-oisst-v2.1","datetime":"2026-09-11T00:00:00Z","href":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"baselineYears":10,"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5,"minDays":5}},"summary":"OISST 2026-07-29…2026-09-11 at 38.625, 5.625: 16 trailing days ≥ +1.5 °C vs a ±15-day climatology from 364 points.","values":{"anomaly_c":2.12,"climatology_c":26.06,"days_over":16,"max_anomaly_c":2.77,"sst_c":28.18,"threshold_c":1.5}},{"id":"oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-12","kind":"series","source":"noaa-oisst-v2.1","datetime":"2026-09-12T00:00:00Z","href":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"baselineYears":10,"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5,"minDays":5}},"summary":"OISST 2026-07-30…2026-09-12 at 38.625, 5.625: 17 trailing days ≥ +1.5 °C vs a ±15-day climatology from 364 points.","values":{"anomaly_c":1.98,"climatology_c":25.99,"days_over":17,"max_anomaly_c":2.77,"sst_c":27.97,"threshold_c":1.5}},{"id":"oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-13","kind":"series","source":"noaa-oisst-v2.1","datetime":"2026-09-13T00:00:00Z","href":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"baselineYears":10,"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5,"minDays":5}},"summary":"OISST 2026-07-30…2026-09-13 at 38.625, 5.625: 18 trailing days ≥ +1.5 °C vs a ±15-day climatology from 364 points.","values":{"anomaly_c":2.01,"climatology_c":25.84,"days_over":18,"max_anomaly_c":2.77,"sst_c":27.85,"threshold_c":1.5}},{"id":"oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-14","kind":"series","source":"noaa-oisst-v2.1","datetime":"2026-09-14T00:00:00Z","href":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"baselineYears":10,"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5,"minDays":5}},"summary":"OISST 2026-07-31…2026-09-14 at 38.625, 5.625: 19 trailing days ≥ +1.5 °C vs a ±15-day climatology from 364 points.","values":{"anomaly_c":2.04,"climatology_c":25.79,"days_over":19,"max_anomaly_c":2.77,"sst_c":27.83,"threshold_c":1.5}},{"id":"oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-15","kind":"series","source":"noaa-oisst-v2.1","datetime":"2026-09-15T00:00:00Z","href":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"baselineYears":10,"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5,"minDays":5}},"summary":"OISST 2026-08-01…2026-09-15 at 38.625, 5.625: 20 trailing days ≥ +1.5 °C vs a ±15-day climatology from 364 points.","values":{"anomaly_c":2.02,"climatology_c":25.79,"days_over":20,"max_anomaly_c":2.77,"sst_c":27.81,"threshold_c":1.5}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-9c53-7e53-9136-0b16fd5b6251","findingId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7557-907b-5a29808b158c","at":"2026-10-01T01:25:01.651Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"97365ba93f086e665f9fb8165a764d26b1709a0bd8153e5f220565f9a6550dee","kind":"narrated","text":"Balearic Sea runs 2.1 °C above normal for 16 straight days, and the heat is still holding\n\nAt a point in the Western Mediterranean (38.625, 5.625), satellite and buoy data from NOAA's OISST v2.1 put the sea surface at 28.18 °C on 11 September 2026. That is 2.12 °C above what the same date looked like across 2016–2025, when the average was 26.06 °C. The water had already been at least 1.5 °C above normal for 16 days running, peaking at 2.77 °C. A later reading on 12 September still showed 1.98 °C above normal, 17 days running — the heat did not vanish with one cloudy day.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a measure of the water where corals and seagrass actually live. OISST sees only the surface skin and lags by around two weeks, and a single 0.25° cell stands in for a whole sea. The baseline is just the previous ten years, already warm, so \"normal\" here is a low bar. An El Niño phase is underway (ONI 1.8), which shifts ocean heat worldwide; this finding does not establish a cause.\n\nWhat would change our mind: anomalies dropping back below 1.5 °C, a revision to the OISST record, or subsurface measurements showing the heat is shallow.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Sea-surface temperature, 11 Sep 2026 (°C): 28.18 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11]\n- Above the 2016–2025 normal (°C): 2.12 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11]\n- Ten-year normal for the date (°C): 26.06 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11]\n- Consecutive days at or above +1.5 °C: 16 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11]\n- Peak anomaly in the run (°C): 2.77 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11]\n- Anomaly on the confirming day (°C): 1.98 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-12-persist]\n- Days running at confirmation: 17 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-12-persist]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- One 0.25° grid cell represents a large area of sea.\n- Surface skin only; heat at depth, where corals and kelp live, is not measured.\n- OISST lags roughly two weeks and can be revised.\n- Baseline is only 2016–2025, a decade already warm.\n- Confirmation is a repeat visit to the same dataset, not an independent instrument.\n- El Niño (ONI 1.8) is in play; no cause is assigned here.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"22110486dde4f1d74eca37d9bebdc6cd7bbe64ccb0b5280e1e6e0193d7755c4f","transcriptSha256":"d6d46d0c00ab2fe3b6a8cc00609248ed087a072968863ed696f1539347685aba","evidenceRefs":["oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11","oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-12-persist"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-a994-73d9-ac6a-c3dde0f60928","findingId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7557-907b-5a29808b158c","at":"2026-10-01T01:25:05.044Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"98b74f892d85c178c438d3a7713cb76a6290e1c34f52b460fb0dfad98a1bb135","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (SST, anomaly, climatology, days_over, max anomaly, confirmation values) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration clearly states blind spots: surface-only skin measurement, single-cell representativeness, short/warm baseline, lag/revision risk, and acknowledges El Niño confound without asserting causation; No individuals are named; this is an environmental/geophysical finding; AOI tags are ['ocean','marine-heatwave'] with control:false, not a control AOI, consistent with publishing a real finding","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T19:40:20.460Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T01:44:34.592Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T19:40:22.178Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T19:40:23.820Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-30T19:42:40.652Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:25:01.651Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:25:05.044Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-10-01T01:25:05.062Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":9,"lastEventHash":"aa478627078bcbe4938a5e6704c912f8d6f6be5ef2bae37f62d156a71ea6cd01"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7c67-b802-4d59bacb7964","findingId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7557-907b-5a29808b158c","at":"2026-09-27T08:16:26.160Z","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5,"minDays":5}},"title":"Marine heatwave at Western Mediterranean (Balearic Sea): the sea surface is 2.1 °C warmer than normal, 16 days running","summary":"Sea-surface temperature at 38.625, 5.625 was 28.18 °C on 2026-09-11, 2.12 °C above the same time of year in 2016–2025 (26.06 °C). It has been at least 1.5 °C above normal for 16 consecutive days (peak 2.77 °C). Heat this persistent stresses corals, kelp and fisheries; a later day still this warm confirms it.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[5.625,38.625]},"bbox":[5,38,6,39],"aoi":{"id":"mhw-mediterranean","name":"Western Mediterranean (Balearic Sea)","tags":["ocean","marine-heatwave"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-11T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11","kind":"series","source":"noaa-oisst-v2.1","datetime":"2026-09-11T00:00:00Z","href":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"baselineYears":10,"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5,"minDays":5}},"summary":"OISST 2026-07-29…2026-09-11 at 38.625, 5.625: 16 trailing days ≥ +1.5 °C vs a ±15-day climatology from 364 points.","values":{"anomaly_c":2.12,"climatology_c":26.06,"days_over":16,"max_anomaly_c":2.77,"sst_c":28.18,"threshold_c":1.5}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"notes":["Dataset: NOAA OISST v2.1 (0.25°, daily, satellite + in-situ) via ERDDAP. Window 2026-07-29…2026-09-11; climatology = same ±15 days of 2016–2025."]},"blindSpots":["Sea ice: extent is area with ≥ 15% ice, not volume or thickness — thin new ice counts the same as old multi-year ice.","Sea ice: passive microwave misreads melt ponds and coastal cells; the p10 line is 1981–2010, so a warming world crosses it more often.","Marine heatwave: one 0.25° cell stands for a whole reef or sea; the baseline is only the previous 10 years (already warm), sampled every ~10 days.","Marine heatwave: OISST lags ~2 weeks and sees the surface skin only — heat below a few metres, where corals live, is not measured.","River: GloFAS discharge is modelled, not gauged; the cell may miss the main channel, and dams, diversions and levees are poorly represented.","River: the 2× line is against the all-season mean, so monsoon and snowmelt rivers cross it every peak season unless minSeasonalRatio also requires it to be high for the month.","Air quality: CAMS is a ~40 km model, not a monitor; it smooths city hotspots and can misplace dust and smoke plumes.","Air quality: PM2.5 only — ozone, NO₂ and indoor air are not judged, and the WHO guideline is a health line, not a legal limit.","ENSO: ONI is a 3-month running mean released monthly, so an event is declared months after it starts; the confirmation is one OISST point, not the Niño3.4 box.","Earthquakes: magnitude says nothing about damage — depth, building codes and population decide that; USGS review is the same provider checking its own event.","Earthquakes: a sweep more than 30 days late misses older events; only the strongest quake per region per case window leads the case.","All: global zero-key feeds can go stale or be revised; a threshold crossing is a signal to look, not a verdict on cause or impact."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e463-163c-7c4a-9b69-8e0e37b81f13","findingId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7557-907b-5a29808b158c","at":"2026-09-27T19:40:20.460Z","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","prev":"7f56e63e80824b3855341461ed6da536773ab76785b5313cd06ebc7d5ff0d6da","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-12-persist","kind":"series","source":"noaa-oisst-v2.1","datetime":"2026-09-12T00:00:00Z","href":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5}},"summary":"Still 1.98 °C above normal on 2026-09-12 (17 days running).","values":{"anomaly_c":1.98,"days_over":17}},"independence":"revisit"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e5b1-bac0-7ab4-8341-89c6e95a39da","findingId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7557-907b-5a29808b158c","at":"2026-09-28T01:44:34.592Z","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","prev":"7cff3e5a955e857a013ab55aa39d92ee332e80452c13a94c4e1d79ac6aa9e00f","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-12","kind":"series","source":"noaa-oisst-v2.1","datetime":"2026-09-12T00:00:00Z","href":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"baselineYears":10,"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5,"minDays":5}},"summary":"OISST 2026-07-30…2026-09-12 at 38.625, 5.625: 17 trailing days ≥ +1.5 °C vs a ±15-day climatology from 364 points.","values":{"anomaly_c":1.98,"climatology_c":25.99,"days_over":17,"max_anomaly_c":2.77,"sst_c":27.97,"threshold_c":1.5}}]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e989-ffa9-7b75-8290-681959294c9f","findingId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7557-907b-5a29808b158c","at":"2026-09-28T19:40:22.178Z","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","prev":"cee88ac792fe1103b22692c9f09cb6a5e488ed5ab96bab88e5740cedb84f4619","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-13","kind":"series","source":"noaa-oisst-v2.1","datetime":"2026-09-13T00:00:00Z","href":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"baselineYears":10,"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5,"minDays":5}},"summary":"OISST 2026-07-30…2026-09-13 at 38.625, 5.625: 18 trailing days ≥ +1.5 °C vs a ±15-day climatology from 364 points.","values":{"anomaly_c":2.01,"climatology_c":25.84,"days_over":18,"max_anomaly_c":2.77,"sst_c":27.85,"threshold_c":1.5}}]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eeb0-f025-7329-bbd7-e1fd1617984a","findingId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7557-907b-5a29808b158c","at":"2026-09-29T19:40:23.820Z","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","prev":"1998517a884f20c8572035f037fd0fb888a834e405af6d8e5cf71351951e8fa3","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-14","kind":"series","source":"noaa-oisst-v2.1","datetime":"2026-09-14T00:00:00Z","href":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"baselineYears":10,"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5,"minDays":5}},"summary":"OISST 2026-07-31…2026-09-14 at 38.625, 5.625: 19 trailing days ≥ +1.5 °C vs a ±15-day climatology from 364 points.","values":{"anomaly_c":2.04,"climatology_c":25.79,"days_over":19,"max_anomaly_c":2.77,"sst_c":27.83,"threshold_c":1.5}}]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f3db-a4f2-749b-9b45-e7dca4d08131","findingId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7557-907b-5a29808b158c","at":"2026-09-30T19:42:40.652Z","actor":"system:indicator_threshold@1.0","prev":"21d56afc7fe3952ecbee9f87de4586bc7854b8a9422fe5fb689bcdb541dd2c0f","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-15","kind":"series","source":"noaa-oisst-v2.1","datetime":"2026-09-15T00:00:00Z","href":"https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst","method":{"name":"indicator_threshold","version":"1.0","params":{"baselineYears":10,"indicator":"marine_heatwave","lat":38.5,"lon":5.5,"minAnomalyC":1.5,"minDays":5}},"summary":"OISST 2026-08-01…2026-09-15 at 38.625, 5.625: 20 trailing days ≥ +1.5 °C vs a ±15-day climatology from 364 points.","values":{"anomaly_c":2.02,"climatology_c":25.79,"days_over":20,"max_anomaly_c":2.77,"sst_c":27.81,"threshold_c":1.5}}]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-9c53-7e53-9136-0b16fd5b6251","findingId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7557-907b-5a29808b158c","at":"2026-10-01T01:25:01.651Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"97365ba93f086e665f9fb8165a764d26b1709a0bd8153e5f220565f9a6550dee","kind":"narrated","text":"Balearic Sea runs 2.1 °C above normal for 16 straight days, and the heat is still holding\n\nAt a point in the Western Mediterranean (38.625, 5.625), satellite and buoy data from NOAA's OISST v2.1 put the sea surface at 28.18 °C on 11 September 2026. That is 2.12 °C above what the same date looked like across 2016–2025, when the average was 26.06 °C. The water had already been at least 1.5 °C above normal for 16 days running, peaking at 2.77 °C. A later reading on 12 September still showed 1.98 °C above normal, 17 days running — the heat did not vanish with one cloudy day.\n\nWhat this is not: it is not a measure of the water where corals and seagrass actually live. OISST sees only the surface skin and lags by around two weeks, and a single 0.25° cell stands in for a whole sea. The baseline is just the previous ten years, already warm, so \"normal\" here is a low bar. An El Niño phase is underway (ONI 1.8), which shifts ocean heat worldwide; this finding does not establish a cause.\n\nWhat would change our mind: anomalies dropping back below 1.5 °C, a revision to the OISST record, or subsurface measurements showing the heat is shallow.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Sea-surface temperature, 11 Sep 2026 (°C): 28.18 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11]\n- Above the 2016–2025 normal (°C): 2.12 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11]\n- Ten-year normal for the date (°C): 26.06 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11]\n- Consecutive days at or above +1.5 °C: 16 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11]\n- Peak anomaly in the run (°C): 2.77 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11]\n- Anomaly on the confirming day (°C): 1.98 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-12-persist]\n- Days running at confirmation: 17 [oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-12-persist]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- One 0.25° grid cell represents a large area of sea.\n- Surface skin only; heat at depth, where corals and kelp live, is not measured.\n- OISST lags roughly two weeks and can be revised.\n- Baseline is only 2016–2025, a decade already warm.\n- Confirmation is a repeat visit to the same dataset, not an independent instrument.\n- El Niño (ONI 1.8) is in play; no cause is assigned here.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"22110486dde4f1d74eca37d9bebdc6cd7bbe64ccb0b5280e1e6e0193d7755c4f","transcriptSha256":"d6d46d0c00ab2fe3b6a8cc00609248ed087a072968863ed696f1539347685aba","evidenceRefs":["oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-11","oisst-mhw-mediterranean-2026-09-12-persist"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-a994-73d9-ac6a-c3dde0f60928","findingId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7557-907b-5a29808b158c","at":"2026-10-01T01:25:05.044Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"98b74f892d85c178c438d3a7713cb76a6290e1c34f52b460fb0dfad98a1bb135","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (SST, anomaly, climatology, days_over, max anomaly, confirmation values) match the evidence and confirmation signal exactly; Narration clearly states blind spots: surface-only skin measurement, single-cell representativeness, short/warm baseline, lag/revision risk, and acknowledges El Niño confound without asserting causation; No individuals are named; this is an environmental/geophysical finding; AOI tags are ['ocean','marine-heatwave'] with control:false, not a control AOI, consistent with publishing a real finding","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0f510-a9a6-774a-899a-22f986741d78","findingId":"01a0e1f0-5cb8-7557-907b-5a29808b158c","at":"2026-10-01T01:25:05.062Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"a4b5bf6e57a52f56bc7389ba1db811a21972bffbb9b8b6e3567b95d6b33a8d66","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":1085,"leafHash":"fd9d3d13cbe127a00e6aba36fd9a98ce654d83afe89a50c46c112263713fd66d","proof":["846575dc30f1bcbb32c489742593db9710706f8810e2b9f3f5191030b34264f5","fe0796c0aa7bf2e200fd37b5c2e503322f1781720a4b6d59222b4f0da4fcd943","2494e2b2df7d6106545689d08f862922baf703ced4176607121b48afad1f87cd","576ff251d8e249ea6945c0d511d70209b84e24e83b2968d8d06577c1ba6e31ff","a075fff0f685bbbd7b0ae95e57f575fc200afdeaf4d162f4a48238b261472a54","90a6a1c0a261ad9f9f60e788c08236eafd993fb4cdb01ea5b4a58da45af5ae7a","64decc40b792c748c3c5f5f534f82c6ed232929960b40f30a38f3d6c3404d29f","8c9c126ddde5463be4c66b848b31cefa5e2e8b034ab906e8158680a170325566"],"size":1104,"root":"2d46ab865c7813b8991ed0d713906b15bef1321a022b8d382a1069dac9d5686a"}}