{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0e074-e18a-79e7-9e0b-d039b88d9636","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"fires_in_protected","version":"1.0","params":{"dayRange":2,"minDetections":5,"minFrp":20,"revisitHours":18,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"title":"Fire cluster inside Selous G.R (TZA) — tile 2/4: 6 hot detections","summary":"6 VIIRS detections with fire radiative power ≥ 20 MW within 2 days inside the watched boundary; density 1.626× the 30 km neighbourhood. Awaiting an independent signal (EONET event or a later pass).","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[38.4,-8.29]},"bbox":[37.415,-8.865,38.74,-7.29],"aoi":{"id":"wdpa-1399-2","name":"Selous G.R (TZA) — tile 2/4","tags":["protected-area","discovered","tza","iucn-iv","game-reserve"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"hot detections per deg²","ringKm":30,"aoiValue":2.875,"regionalValue":1.769,"ratio":1.626}},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.","VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).","The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.","S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.","Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-29T01:23:42.710Z","createdBy":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-28T19:10:10.696Z","independence":"revisit","signal":{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-28-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[37.415,-8.865,38.74,-7.29],"dayRange":1,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"12 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-28).","values":{"detections":12}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[37.415,-8.865,38.74,-7.29],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"6 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 28.0 MW).","values":{"detections":6,"maxFrp":28}},{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-28","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[37.415,-8.865,38.74,-7.29],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"12 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 84.5 MW).","values":{"detections":12,"maxFrp":84.5}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac2-a14c-751b-918a-b9cef2f0bbfc","findingId":"01a0e074-e18a-79e7-9e0b-d039b88d9636","at":"2026-09-29T01:23:38.957Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"d1593d9078dffb9971dae08c946ec3a998ed2a66b08c4faa9b57e377d7675217","kind":"narrated","text":"Fires flare inside a Selous Game Reserve tile: 6 hot detections, then 12 on a later satellite pass\n\nOver a two-day window ending 26 September 2026, the NOAA-20 VIIRS satellite recorded 6 fire detections with radiative power of at least 20 MW (strongest 28 MW) inside the watched boundary of a Selous Game Reserve tile in Tanzania. A later pass on 28 September again showed heat there: 12 detections at or above 20 MW, the strongest at 84.5 MW. Fire density in the area ran at 2.875 hot detections per square degree against 1.769 in the surrounding 30 km ring, about 1.626 times the neighbourhood rate. This is a record of heat on the ground, nothing more. Satellite heat alone cannot separate a wildfire from managed rangeland burning, farm fires or a lawful prescribed burn, and the season falls in an El Niño phase (ONI 1.8), which can leave vegetation drier. No natural-event records were linked. The watched area is a rectangle drawn around the reserve, not its legal boundary, so some detections may sit outside the protected land. Nothing here speaks to cause or responsibility. Evidence that would change our mind: burn-permit or land-management records, or optical imagery showing no scar.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hot detections, first window (FRP ≥ 20 MW): 6 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-26]\n- Strongest detection, first window (MW): 28 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-26]\n- Hot detections on later pass (28 Sep): 12 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-28-revisit]\n- Strongest detection, second window (MW): 84.5 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-28]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Confirmation is a repeat pass from the same sensor, not an independent source.\n- Cannot distinguish wildfire from managed, agricultural or prescribed burning.\n- Detection area is the watchlist rectangle, not the reserve's legal polygon.\n- VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke and short-lived fires between its roughly twice-daily overpasses.\n- A gap or outage in the satellite feed would look like calm.\n- No cause or responsibility can be inferred without land-tenure and concession data.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"eb04ab15938639dd1817b3ec1e36db868c6cfdfefc6dd05988afe0fa47b721d1","transcriptSha256":"ffb1953591dba6d2b05093c108831a9e39a981e70d2e4845d424aa84630d48d4","evidenceRefs":["firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-26","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-28-revisit","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-28"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac2-afe9-7db9-ac95-adcff2b62657","findingId":"01a0e074-e18a-79e7-9e0b-d039b88d9636","at":"2026-09-29T01:23:42.697Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"f235dc91182e35b24035680a0dfac0905399dffa4d8d29d6736dc3ae3bc76abb","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (6 detections, 28 MW, 12 detections, 84.5 MW, density 2.875 vs 1.769, ratio 1.626, ONI 1.8) match evidence and context exactly.; Narration explicitly acknowledges key blind spots: cannot distinguish wildfire from managed/agricultural/prescribed burning, bbox vs legal polygon issue, VIIRS detection gaps, same-sensor confirmation caveat, and no attribution of cause/responsibility.; No individuals or identifiable persons are named.; AOI is tagged as protected-area/discovered, not control, consistent with a real (non-control) finding worth publishing.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-28T19:10:10.696Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:10:08.788Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:23:38.957Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:23:42.697Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-29T01:23:42.710Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":6,"lastEventHash":"db5252a4d287173cc5017e75e127498a427bad2c4d04cb8740b5ee69cd4ad787"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e074-e18a-794b-b5ea-c0d06b18d6c8","findingId":"01a0e074-e18a-79e7-9e0b-d039b88d9636","at":"2026-09-27T01:18:29.319Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"fires_in_protected","version":"1.0","params":{"dayRange":2,"minDetections":5,"minFrp":20,"revisitHours":18,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"title":"Fire cluster inside Selous G.R (TZA) — tile 2/4: 6 hot detections","summary":"6 VIIRS detections with fire radiative power ≥ 20 MW within 2 days inside the watched boundary; density 1.626× the 30 km neighbourhood. Awaiting an independent signal (EONET event or a later pass).","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[38.4,-8.29]},"bbox":[37.415,-8.865,38.74,-7.29],"aoi":{"id":"wdpa-1399-2","name":"Selous G.R (TZA) — tile 2/4","tags":["protected-area","discovered","tza","iucn-iv","game-reserve"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[37.415,-8.865,38.74,-7.29],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"6 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 28.0 MW).","values":{"detections":6,"maxFrp":28}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"hot detections per deg²","ringKm":30,"aoiValue":2.875,"regionalValue":1.769,"ratio":1.626}},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell wildfire from managed burning, agricultural fire or a legal prescribed burn.","VIIRS misses fires under cloud/smoke and small or short-lived fires between overpasses (~2/day).","The watched boundary is the watchlist's bbox, not the legal polygon, until protected_areas (M3) lands.","S-NPP products end 1 Nov 2026 — the default source is NOAA-20; a source outage looks like calm.","Says nothing about cause or responsibility; attribution needs land-tenure and concession layers."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e96f-06e3-75e7-a960-525dc533af8d","findingId":"01a0e074-e18a-79e7-9e0b-d039b88d9636","at":"2026-09-28T19:10:10.696Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":"5d98d43a4b1884bfea62973a7bbcb618b003cc91c8232f86cfd7d158166f662f","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-28-revisit","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[37.415,-8.865,38.74,-7.29],"dayRange":1,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"12 hot detections again on a later pass (2026-09-28).","values":{"detections":12}},"independence":"revisit"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eab9-0aa5-7a91-88b6-69214b3976d5","findingId":"01a0e074-e18a-79e7-9e0b-d039b88d9636","at":"2026-09-29T01:10:08.788Z","actor":"system:fires_in_protected@1.0","prev":"07e5133f9ff5fac2e7670a6e6f804d657b59ba8961c8dc394412ee18f5639c3b","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-28","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"fires_in","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[37.415,-8.865,38.74,-7.29],"dayRange":2,"minFrp":20,"source":"VIIRS_NOAA20_NRT"}},"summary":"12 detections with FRP ≥ 20 MW in 2 d (max 84.5 MW).","values":{"detections":12,"maxFrp":84.5}}]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac2-a14c-751b-918a-b9cef2f0bbfc","findingId":"01a0e074-e18a-79e7-9e0b-d039b88d9636","at":"2026-09-29T01:23:38.957Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"d1593d9078dffb9971dae08c946ec3a998ed2a66b08c4faa9b57e377d7675217","kind":"narrated","text":"Fires flare inside a Selous Game Reserve tile: 6 hot detections, then 12 on a later satellite pass\n\nOver a two-day window ending 26 September 2026, the NOAA-20 VIIRS satellite recorded 6 fire detections with radiative power of at least 20 MW (strongest 28 MW) inside the watched boundary of a Selous Game Reserve tile in Tanzania. A later pass on 28 September again showed heat there: 12 detections at or above 20 MW, the strongest at 84.5 MW. Fire density in the area ran at 2.875 hot detections per square degree against 1.769 in the surrounding 30 km ring, about 1.626 times the neighbourhood rate. This is a record of heat on the ground, nothing more. Satellite heat alone cannot separate a wildfire from managed rangeland burning, farm fires or a lawful prescribed burn, and the season falls in an El Niño phase (ONI 1.8), which can leave vegetation drier. No natural-event records were linked. The watched area is a rectangle drawn around the reserve, not its legal boundary, so some detections may sit outside the protected land. Nothing here speaks to cause or responsibility. Evidence that would change our mind: burn-permit or land-management records, or optical imagery showing no scar.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Hot detections, first window (FRP ≥ 20 MW): 6 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-26]\n- Strongest detection, first window (MW): 28 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-26]\n- Hot detections on later pass (28 Sep): 12 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-28-revisit]\n- Strongest detection, second window (MW): 84.5 [firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-28]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Confirmation is a repeat pass from the same sensor, not an independent source.\n- Cannot distinguish wildfire from managed, agricultural or prescribed burning.\n- Detection area is the watchlist rectangle, not the reserve's legal polygon.\n- VIIRS misses fires under cloud or smoke and short-lived fires between its roughly twice-daily overpasses.\n- A gap or outage in the satellite feed would look like calm.\n- No cause or responsibility can be inferred without land-tenure and concession data.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"eb04ab15938639dd1817b3ec1e36db868c6cfdfefc6dd05988afe0fa47b721d1","transcriptSha256":"ffb1953591dba6d2b05093c108831a9e39a981e70d2e4845d424aa84630d48d4","evidenceRefs":["firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-26","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-28-revisit","firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt-wdpa-1399-2-2026-09-28"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac2-afe9-7db9-ac95-adcff2b62657","findingId":"01a0e074-e18a-79e7-9e0b-d039b88d9636","at":"2026-09-29T01:23:42.697Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"f235dc91182e35b24035680a0dfac0905399dffa4d8d29d6736dc3ae3bc76abb","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (6 detections, 28 MW, 12 detections, 84.5 MW, density 2.875 vs 1.769, ratio 1.626, ONI 1.8) match evidence and context exactly.; Narration explicitly acknowledges key blind spots: cannot distinguish wildfire from managed/agricultural/prescribed burning, bbox vs legal polygon issue, VIIRS detection gaps, same-sensor confirmation caveat, and no attribution of cause/responsibility.; No individuals or identifiable persons are named.; AOI is tagged as protected-area/discovered, not control, consistent with a real (non-control) finding worth publishing.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0eac2-aff6-7cb8-8a1f-cd129df4c6fe","findingId":"01a0e074-e18a-79e7-9e0b-d039b88d9636","at":"2026-09-29T01:23:42.710Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"146c5d6ef8b03770438a7c8d6ab4037b8c3480798087c986c4bba5eebb863ef1","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":847,"leafHash":"0611d28b37851c4d49d0c94b501d5b0acf2117582db12aca299e9412326e11ef","proof":["cb9fe6b2fcfd6bfff24b9895ce51d58325d575c19261ea58c815747864a9f37b","17c9dea9d100545c5f32e769597875fde9c74a624d414417c424368a939d137a","61c65ac42e847ba885b90f5916323bcceb3deea41c620d21d1a49e9ba11a41d4","84a25887da275c0e34c609d8ede6cc230d8f794387408412d574b19a546abc6d","39f538d8c117910f61de676ff8fdfa537b14e09c3608c4d11e55d57096999195","71a85e208c2f8dc340522e3deb6239caf3cc060a8c75b6fd8407e3d5de5d060d","b151de5eaefddf3d1cfc86f94cdbc3995ed5d406a6c0acfc99649a5d48d50794","5f7580b7f5a7f09ff7675565fb36c19876079a6c101f721419a5a07a7a23b1c1"],"size":854,"root":"842817ab26f9a2521ef7ad6014dcb954a959e9359f578a89f5c3a92c7df7aace"}}