{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0df8b-e045-7fa4-9428-e7f599938fa1","status":"published","tier":2,"rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field MEX 19.45, -92.09 (18 VNF sites): 7 cluster(s), up to 17 nights","summary":"7 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 17 nights (max 28.89 MW). 7 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-92.044,19.395]},"bbox":[-92.39,19.27,-91.91,19.7],"aoi":{"id":"flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w","name":"Flare field MEX 19.45, -92.09 (18 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","mex","mex_ups_92.0866w_19.4475n"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."],"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T21:22:10.383Z","createdBy":"system:flaring@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","independence":"provider","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"7 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.217 BCM, 0.14 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.217,"vnfMatched":7}}},"evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-92.39,19.27,-91.91,19.7],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 17 nights, max 28.89 MW at 19.3948, -92.0437.","values":{"hotNightDetections":252,"maxFrp":28.89,"maxNights":17,"persistentClusters":7,"vnfMatched":7,"vnfTopBcm":0.217,"vnfTopKm":0.14,"vnfYear":2024}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df97-c470-7462-8669-ae99d1e43d71","findingId":"01a0df8b-e045-7fa4-9428-e7f599938fa1","at":"2026-09-26T21:21:00.528Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"4442495f1111d15eb11167a20a2fcb2641800f1c05eabf88b5f16c7cb0a50923","kind":"narrated","text":"Seven steady night-time heat sources burn offshore Campeche; top site lit 17 of 30 nights\n\nNight-time satellite passes over the flare field at roughly 19.45N, 92.09W picked up 7 clusters of heat that reached at least 5 MW and reappeared on 5 or more of the last 30 nights (28 August to 26 September 2026). The most persistent was lit on 17 nights, with a peak fire radiative power of 28.89 MW, and 252 hot-night detections were logged in total. All 7 clusters sit on sites listed in an independent 2024 annual flare summary from the Earth Observation Group, the largest of them 0.14 km away and credited with 0.217 billion cubic metres for that year.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace, a kiln or another industrial source — only the repetition and the known-flare match point to flaring. The brightness figure is not a volume; the sensor saturates on the biggest flares. Unlit venting and cold methane leaks would not show up at all. The finding names a place, not an operator.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a month of heavy cloud can hide nights and mimic a shutdown, so a gap is not proof of stoppage. Daytime imagery, methane sounding, or an updated flare inventory could recast these clusters.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent clusters: 7 [firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster: 17 [firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 28.89 [firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 252 [firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching known 2024 flare sites: 7 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w]\n- Top site 2024 flared volume (BCM): 0.217 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.\n- Cloud or smoke can hide nights and make a steady flare look intermittent.\n- FRP is not a flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible here; methane sounding would be needed.\n- The confirming flare inventory is an annual aggregate from 2024 — it shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.\n- Two passes per night around 01:30 local time; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution — the clusters are locations only.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"94fe79de34fdb7c6b213aa4d66f71e6c9dfb26d6ea5af706c631a2eb30f4078f","transcriptSha256":"59d869bf622ed98a544bcea4a18b8570432f7640fdb2d7a0846ce5432d2e70f5","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df98-d54b-76f0-99e6-592a66d00903","findingId":"01a0df8b-e045-7fa4-9428-e7f599938fa1","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:10.380Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"866a263722a969a88e4322f04b653322d1c92e05eb7652cff1d5403cae9b00d3","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All key figures (7 clusters, 17 nights, 28.89 MW, 252 detections, VNF match, 0.217 BCM) trace directly to the cited evidence and confirmation records with no invented numbers.; The narration's caveats mirror the finding's blindSpots list nearly one-to-one: sensor/source ambiguity, cloud gaps, FRP-vs-volume, invisibility of cold venting/methane, lack of operator attribution, revisit-cadence limits, and the 'annual snapshot vs. current activity' caveat about the VNF match.; No person is named; only a place, coordinates and an institutional data credit (Earth Observation Group) appear.; The AOI record shows control:false and carries operational tags (flaring, oil-gas, discovered, mex) rather than a 'control' tag, so this is a live discovered-field finding, not a test/control site.; Minor stylistic addition ('offshore Campeche') is a reasonable geographic gloss for the given coordinates and not a substantive overclaim, so it does not undermine evidentiary support.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:flaring@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:21:00.528Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:10.380Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T21:22:10.383Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"46b49ee25c735ee5ee2c325609fda541c75cb1be3aaacee0f918fa2903bb3c2d"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df8b-e045-75a2-984c-0b34a31266be","findingId":"01a0df8b-e045-7fa4-9428-e7f599938fa1","at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5,"revisitHours":18}},"title":"Persistent flaring in Flare field MEX 19.45, -92.09 (18 VNF sites): 7 cluster(s), up to 17 nights","summary":"7 VIIRS night-time heat cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW persisted on ≥ 5 of the last 30 nights; the most persistent was lit 17 nights (max 28.89 MW). 7 sit on known VNF 2024 flare sites.","tier":2,"geometry":{"type":"Point","coordinates":[-92.044,19.395]},"bbox":[-92.39,19.27,-91.91,19.7],"aoi":{"id":"flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w","name":"Flare field MEX 19.45, -92.09 (18 VNF sites)","tags":["flaring","oil-gas","discovered","mex","mex_ups_92.0866w_19.4475n"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"firms-viirs_noaa20_nrt+viirs_noaa21_nrt","datetime":"2026-09-25T00:00:00Z","href":"https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-92.39,19.27,-91.91,19.7],"clusterKm":1,"days":30,"limit":20,"minFrp":5,"minNights":5}},"summary":"7 night-time cluster(s) with FRP ≥ 5 MW lit on ≥ 5 of 30 nights (2026-08-28…2026-09-26); top cluster 17 nights, max 28.89 MW at 19.3948, -92.0437.","values":{"hotNightDetections":252,"maxFrp":28.89,"maxNights":17,"persistentClusters":7,"vnfMatched":7,"vnfTopBcm":0.217,"vnfTopKm":0.14,"vnfYear":2024}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[]},"blindSpots":["Cannot tell a gas flare from an industrial furnace, refinery, steel or cement kiln, or a volcano — only persistence and the VNF site match argue 'flare'.","Cloud and heavy smoke hide nights; a cloudy month under-counts persistence and can look like a flare was turned off.","FRP is not flared volume: the VIIRS I-band saturates on the largest flares and the FIRMS FRP is a single-pixel estimate — volumes come only from the VNF annual summary.","Venting and unlit (cold) methane releases are invisible to thermal sensors — pair with S5P / EMIT methane.","No ownership or operator attribution: a cluster is a place, not a company; attribution needs asset registries (GEM, GGFR) and human review.","Two VIIRS passes per night at ~01:30 local; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed. S-NPP ends Nov 2026, so NOAA-20/21 only.","The VNF confirmation is an annual aggregate from a past year: it proves the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df8b-e04a-73c8-bdfc-f43061b83711","findingId":"01a0df8b-e045-7fa4-9428-e7f599938fa1","at":"2026-09-26T21:07:01.490Z","actor":"system:flaring@1.0","prev":"f44e1a3af573c84f4c097a185b36eb3f6d4ae08017ac798c8f024f737a1ec503","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w","kind":"record","source":"eog-vnf-annual","datetime":"2024-12-31T00:00:00Z","href":"https://eogdata.mines.edu/products/vnf/global_gas_flare.html","method":{"name":"flaring","version":"1.0","params":{"vnfYear":2024}},"summary":"7 persistent cluster(s) coincide with sites in the VNF 2024 annual flare summary (top site 0.217 BCM, 0.14 km away). Credit: Earth Observation Group, Payne Institute for Public Policy, Colorado School of Mines — VIIRS Nightfire global flare summary.","values":{"bcm":0.217,"vnfMatched":7}},"independence":"provider"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df97-c470-7462-8669-ae99d1e43d71","findingId":"01a0df8b-e045-7fa4-9428-e7f599938fa1","at":"2026-09-26T21:21:00.528Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"4442495f1111d15eb11167a20a2fcb2641800f1c05eabf88b5f16c7cb0a50923","kind":"narrated","text":"Seven steady night-time heat sources burn offshore Campeche; top site lit 17 of 30 nights\n\nNight-time satellite passes over the flare field at roughly 19.45N, 92.09W picked up 7 clusters of heat that reached at least 5 MW and reappeared on 5 or more of the last 30 nights (28 August to 26 September 2026). The most persistent was lit on 17 nights, with a peak fire radiative power of 28.89 MW, and 252 hot-night detections were logged in total. All 7 clusters sit on sites listed in an independent 2024 annual flare summary from the Earth Observation Group, the largest of them 0.14 km away and credited with 0.217 billion cubic metres for that year.\n\nWhat this is not: heat alone cannot separate a gas flare from a refinery furnace, a kiln or another industrial source — only the repetition and the known-flare match point to flaring. The brightness figure is not a volume; the sensor saturates on the biggest flares. Unlit venting and cold methane leaks would not show up at all. The finding names a place, not an operator.\n\nWhat would change our mind: a month of heavy cloud can hide nights and mimic a shutdown, so a gap is not proof of stoppage. Daytime imagery, methane sounding, or an updated flare inventory could recast these clusters.\n\nKey numbers:\n- Persistent clusters: 7 [firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Nights lit, most persistent cluster: 17 [firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Peak fire radiative power (MW): 28.89 [firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Hot-night detections: 252 [firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26]\n- Clusters matching known 2024 flare sites: 7 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w]\n- Top site 2024 flared volume (BCM): 0.217 [eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Thermal sensors cannot distinguish a flare from a furnace, kiln or other industrial heat source.\n- Cloud or smoke can hide nights and make a steady flare look intermittent.\n- FRP is not a flared volume; the sensor saturates on the largest flares.\n- Unlit venting and cold methane releases are invisible here; methane sounding would be needed.\n- The confirming flare inventory is an annual aggregate from 2024 — it shows the site is a known flare, not that it flared this week.\n- Two passes per night around 01:30 local time; short or intermittent flaring between passes is missed.\n- No operator or ownership attribution — the clusters are locations only.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"94fe79de34fdb7c6b213aa4d66f71e6c9dfb26d6ea5af706c631a2eb30f4078f","transcriptSha256":"59d869bf622ed98a544bcea4a18b8570432f7640fdb2d7a0846ce5432d2e70f5","evidenceRefs":["firms-flaring-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w-2026-08-28-2026-09-26","eog-vnf-annual-2024-flare-mex-19p4n-92p1w"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df98-d54b-76f0-99e6-592a66d00903","findingId":"01a0df8b-e045-7fa4-9428-e7f599938fa1","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:10.380Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"866a263722a969a88e4322f04b653322d1c92e05eb7652cff1d5403cae9b00d3","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":2,"note":"All key figures (7 clusters, 17 nights, 28.89 MW, 252 detections, VNF match, 0.217 BCM) trace directly to the cited evidence and confirmation records with no invented numbers.; The narration's caveats mirror the finding's blindSpots list nearly one-to-one: sensor/source ambiguity, cloud gaps, FRP-vs-volume, invisibility of cold venting/methane, lack of operator attribution, revisit-cadence limits, and the 'annual snapshot vs. current activity' caveat about the VNF match.; No person is named; only a place, coordinates and an institutional data credit (Earth Observation Group) appear.; The AOI record shows control:false and carries operational tags (flaring, oil-gas, discovered, mex) rather than a 'control' tag, so this is a live discovered-field finding, not a test/control site.; Minor stylistic addition ('offshore Campeche') is a reasonable geographic gloss for the given coordinates and not a substantive overclaim, so it does not undermine evidentiary support.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df98-d54f-7454-833d-32c63623d56b","findingId":"01a0df8b-e045-7fa4-9428-e7f599938fa1","at":"2026-09-26T21:22:10.383Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"935a571a4128eae286a21722d90e0b81b151c7d292fe3698b361066e74da571a","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":139,"leafHash":"1f120fb8c5aa320bcbcd4e663128f3db80014573f6681d4d707e806944bc62f8","proof":["cf5b82f56e908b531e0d428a7496f5e68669d7b8b86c256a2164258a7f7de629","7c1d03843e3c7f66c4f0d8b0c89d320ae95e70a79c60af6d6a815fed88b8f655","b13dc0db5f1134c95f7da180b64ee68e411bf0d20ddf2d22a212de896380aa9c","78d4a217127a8d785683c1be031cba2e901cbe093b1ae77f14424b62c88b2c67","c5791be43a93742281091b42839887266fcf328111a065fdb199bd6029e8a58f","ea90af85b57fc2296d71cae3061ddb7573bdaad07fb8fd70a326eb6bfa8a0b0d","1e6b35b77ca24da32136c1f20f9724e4c9e881569d9550e8b5024cf584b97d34"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}