{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0df83-6797-79ee-b0a9-76eb8d0c8c53","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":1070,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":107,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso (Brazil) — tile 2/2: 1828.35 ha in 90 d","summary":"152440 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 1828.35 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 1.082× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-57.74,-13.81],[-56.73,-13.81],[-56.73,-12.755],[-57.74,-12.755],[-57.74,-13.81]]]},"bbox":[-57.74,-13.81,-56.73,-12.755],"aoi":{"id":"bra-12-77-2","name":"Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso (Brazil) — tile 2/2","tags":["forest-hotspot","discovered","bra","brazil","mato-grosso","nova-maringa"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":1715.874,"regionalValue":1585.306,"ratio":1.082},"notes":["Living value (benefit transfer, order of magnitude): 1828.35 ha of tropical forest ≈ $12,282,855/yr alive (band $3,607,335–$47,586,465, 2020 USD), ≈ $1,228,285,500 over 100 yr ($529,370,804 NPV @ 2 %). Source: Costanza R. et al. et al. — a floor for one kind of value, not a price."]},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T01:31:04.798Z","createdBy":"system:forest_loss@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"sensor","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-2-2026-05-14..2026-09-26","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-57.74,-13.81,-56.73,-12.755],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-14","dateB":"2026-09-26","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.207 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 100% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.20727817396837633,"validPctA":100,"validPctB":100}}},"evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-2-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-57.74,-13.81,-56.73,-12.755],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"152440 alerts (≥ high confidence), 1828.35 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.","values":{"alerts":152440,"ha":1828.35,"high_alerts":151853,"high_ha":1821.3,"highest_alerts":587,"highest_ha":7.05,"living_value_100y_npv2_usd":529370804,"living_value_100y_usd":1228285500,"living_value_usd_yr":12282855}},{"id":"gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-2-2026-06-29..2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-57.74,-13.81,-56.73,-12.755],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"152440 alerts (≥ high confidence), 1828.35 ha, 2026-06-29…2026-09-27.","values":{"alerts":152440,"ha":1828.35,"high_alerts":151853,"high_ha":1821.3,"highest_alerts":587,"highest_ha":7.05,"living_value_100y_npv2_usd":529370804,"living_value_100y_usd":1228285500,"living_value_usd_yr":12282855}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07c-a8bc-7303-b56f-ee19570ff8c6","findingId":"01a0df83-6797-79ee-b0a9-76eb8d0c8c53","at":"2026-09-27T01:31:01.180Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"4a4536280907e5d7f6826422c87c080b6419e7de1c5ccf0894a50e56ed7592ed","kind":"narrated","text":"1,828 ha of forest loss flagged near Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso, over 90 days — greenness also dropped\n\nBetween 28 June and 26 September 2026, the integrated Global Forest Watch alert system recorded 152,440 high-confidence deforestation alerts across this tile near Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso, covering 1,828.35 ha. An independent sensor check agrees: Sentinel-2 median-composite NDVI, a measure of live vegetation, fell by -0.207 between 14 May and 26 September, with 100% valid pixels in both composites — well past the rule's 0.1 threshold. What this is not: the alerts cannot tell apart legal clearing, fire, storm damage, selective logging or plantation harvest, and no protected-area or concession layer has been applied here. The AOI's alert density is only 1.082 times its 25 km neighbourhood, so this looks like part of a broader regional pattern rather than an isolated event. An El Niño phase (ONI 1.8) can deepen seasonal browning, and regrowth cycles can mimic loss. We would revise if higher-resolution imagery shows burn scars or standing canopy, if the cleared polygons fall inside a permitted or plantation boundary, or if NDVI recovers in the next composite.\n\nKey numbers:\n- High-confidence alerts (90 d): 152440 [gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-2-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Area flagged (ha): 1828.35 [gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-2-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- NDVI change (May→Sep): -0.207 [s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-2-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 100 [s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-2-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Alerts show change, not cause: fire, storm, logging or legal clearing look alike.\n- Alert density is just 1.082× the surrounding 25 km ring — close to the regional norm.\n- Alerts lag events by 1–2 weeks, so very recent clearing is undercounted.\n- El Niño (ONI 1.8) can amplify seasonal drying in NDVI composites.\n- Plantation harvest and regrowth cycles can register as loss.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"9ab2de0209bc219a5ca6c590aebcdea2691e43371eb7012ea3da1a6f04e06bb3","transcriptSha256":"078fac8fdc7d92613a4c4fec52e38777a5ebda23646543911b83f82ed5c85465","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-2-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-2-2026-05-14..2026-09-26"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07c-b6d7-7861-a507-44b96f82c183","findingId":"01a0df83-6797-79ee-b0a9-76eb8d0c8c53","at":"2026-09-27T01:31:04.791Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"c9bfedd51b884b3cfbd56eff530c89f6d2437418b481de6dae15adce3b510d8c","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (alerts, ha, NDVI delta, valid pixel %) match evidence exactly; Narration explicitly acknowledges blind spots: cause ambiguity, lack of protected-area/concession layer, alert lag, El Niño influence, regrowth/plantation cycles; No individuals or personal identifiers are named; AOI is not tagged control (tags include forest-hotspot, discovered, bra) and is correctly treated as a live finding, not a control test","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T00:00:53.767Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:31:01.180Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:31:04.791Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:31:04.798Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":6,"lastEventHash":"1cb8563e7b10800829e1293ee82c50f066f7b1d73b1901639bb9d0f2752a9222"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df83-6797-7973-8959-a6db5502d286","findingId":"01a0df83-6797-79ee-b0a9-76eb8d0c8c53","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":1070,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":107,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso (Brazil) — tile 2/2: 1828.35 ha in 90 d","summary":"152440 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 1828.35 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 1.082× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-57.74,-13.81],[-56.73,-13.81],[-56.73,-12.755],[-57.74,-12.755],[-57.74,-13.81]]]},"bbox":[-57.74,-13.81,-56.73,-12.755],"aoi":{"id":"bra-12-77-2","name":"Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso (Brazil) — tile 2/2","tags":["forest-hotspot","discovered","bra","brazil","mato-grosso","nova-maringa"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-2-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-57.74,-13.81,-56.73,-12.755],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"152440 alerts (≥ high confidence), 1828.35 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.","values":{"alerts":152440,"ha":1828.35,"high_alerts":151853,"high_ha":1821.3,"highest_alerts":587,"highest_ha":7.05,"living_value_100y_npv2_usd":529370804,"living_value_100y_usd":1228285500,"living_value_usd_yr":12282855}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":1715.874,"regionalValue":1585.306,"ratio":1.082},"notes":["Living value (benefit transfer, order of magnitude): 1828.35 ha of tropical forest ≈ $12,282,855/yr alive (band $3,607,335–$47,586,465, 2020 USD), ≈ $1,228,285,500 over 100 yr ($529,370,804 NPV @ 2 %). Source: Costanza R. et al. et al. — a floor for one kind of value, not a price."]},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df83-7e82-73a1-a02d-c1b4c03303d5","findingId":"01a0df83-6797-79ee-b0a9-76eb8d0c8c53","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":"dda4ecdc39e438358fa316f496635cb3a9b2f4c33594acedcf48eed81740d685","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-2-2026-05-14..2026-09-26","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-57.74,-13.81,-56.73,-12.755],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-14","dateB":"2026-09-26","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.207 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 100% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.20727817396837633,"validPctA":100,"validPctB":100}},"independence":"sensor"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e030-079e-7efc-8087-91d1d2b661c2","findingId":"01a0df83-6797-79ee-b0a9-76eb8d0c8c53","at":"2026-09-27T00:00:53.767Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":"4c252974782887868a364af77adda98ec3adaa74abf7c2bcc992b5abce0533a0","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-2-2026-06-29..2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-57.74,-13.81,-56.73,-12.755],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"152440 alerts (≥ high confidence), 1828.35 ha, 2026-06-29…2026-09-27.","values":{"alerts":152440,"ha":1828.35,"high_alerts":151853,"high_ha":1821.3,"highest_alerts":587,"highest_ha":7.05,"living_value_100y_npv2_usd":529370804,"living_value_100y_usd":1228285500,"living_value_usd_yr":12282855}}]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07c-a8bc-7303-b56f-ee19570ff8c6","findingId":"01a0df83-6797-79ee-b0a9-76eb8d0c8c53","at":"2026-09-27T01:31:01.180Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"4a4536280907e5d7f6826422c87c080b6419e7de1c5ccf0894a50e56ed7592ed","kind":"narrated","text":"1,828 ha of forest loss flagged near Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso, over 90 days — greenness also dropped\n\nBetween 28 June and 26 September 2026, the integrated Global Forest Watch alert system recorded 152,440 high-confidence deforestation alerts across this tile near Nova Maringá, Mato Grosso, covering 1,828.35 ha. An independent sensor check agrees: Sentinel-2 median-composite NDVI, a measure of live vegetation, fell by -0.207 between 14 May and 26 September, with 100% valid pixels in both composites — well past the rule's 0.1 threshold. What this is not: the alerts cannot tell apart legal clearing, fire, storm damage, selective logging or plantation harvest, and no protected-area or concession layer has been applied here. The AOI's alert density is only 1.082 times its 25 km neighbourhood, so this looks like part of a broader regional pattern rather than an isolated event. An El Niño phase (ONI 1.8) can deepen seasonal browning, and regrowth cycles can mimic loss. We would revise if higher-resolution imagery shows burn scars or standing canopy, if the cleared polygons fall inside a permitted or plantation boundary, or if NDVI recovers in the next composite.\n\nKey numbers:\n- High-confidence alerts (90 d): 152440 [gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-2-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Area flagged (ha): 1828.35 [gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-2-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- NDVI change (May→Sep): -0.207 [s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-2-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 100 [s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-2-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: high\nCaveats:\n- Alerts show change, not cause: fire, storm, logging or legal clearing look alike.\n- Alert density is just 1.082× the surrounding 25 km ring — close to the regional norm.\n- Alerts lag events by 1–2 weeks, so very recent clearing is undercounted.\n- El Niño (ONI 1.8) can amplify seasonal drying in NDVI composites.\n- Plantation harvest and regrowth cycles can register as loss.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"9ab2de0209bc219a5ca6c590aebcdea2691e43371eb7012ea3da1a6f04e06bb3","transcriptSha256":"078fac8fdc7d92613a4c4fec52e38777a5ebda23646543911b83f82ed5c85465","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-bra-12-77-2-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","s2-ndvi-median-bra-12-77-2-2026-05-14..2026-09-26"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07c-b6d7-7861-a507-44b96f82c183","findingId":"01a0df83-6797-79ee-b0a9-76eb8d0c8c53","at":"2026-09-27T01:31:04.791Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"c9bfedd51b884b3cfbd56eff530c89f6d2437418b481de6dae15adce3b510d8c","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All numeric claims (alerts, ha, NDVI delta, valid pixel %) match evidence exactly; Narration explicitly acknowledges blind spots: cause ambiguity, lack of protected-area/concession layer, alert lag, El Niño influence, regrowth/plantation cycles; No individuals or personal identifiers are named; AOI is not tagged control (tags include forest-hotspot, discovered, bra) and is correctly treated as a live finding, not a control test","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07c-b6de-733b-b5f7-7b3e381b9001","findingId":"01a0df83-6797-79ee-b0a9-76eb8d0c8c53","at":"2026-09-27T01:31:04.798Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"50e18ef03f0ce1182bd6d3729313b0729b3ce3b809448a6f9baa71ddbec51875","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":458,"leafHash":"e7a4e2ea9ac4a52ebac744210d1deae8068a0dedef1e3663247933927588a531","proof":["92dbaded294ee925e5d4e511b37ff6231e6ed2ec7378f888a8c0f902040fa7da","53fa2a9321ef6f8f5cfaa4a43df0e178ebe7d8e7c28ae4c5f8b3aecacdf86b0f","37733ca994468dc5066917963b5f3ff01c3cce1040193daddc71f6672ca428da","beb17f7f5093ab61c553878001efab997ada8fa41b6946b611d715a6e2c6944d","d53da2d9a52c42afa1145e989e67defee70d1ab136a8450be836068243b2b4c4","cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c","2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae","2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc"],"size":474,"root":"3d5c0e5366efedaf637a782ef6bf63ddd427e2416062effeb6f59afde41a817d"}}