{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0df80-ad0d-72d7-b068-6be6818c1e6f","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":2630,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":263,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Velasco, Santa Cruz (Bolivia) — tile 4/4: 6834.36 ha in 90 d","summary":"579105 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 6834.36 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 0.889× its 12 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-60.82,-17.41],[-59.49,-17.41],[-59.49,-15.44],[-60.82,-15.44],[-60.82,-17.41]]]},"bbox":[-60.82,-17.41,-59.49,-15.44],"aoi":{"id":"bol-8-14-4","name":"Velasco, Santa Cruz (Bolivia) — tile 4/4","tags":["forest-hotspot","discovered","bol","bolivia","santa-cruz","velasco"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":12,"aoiValue":2608.435,"regionalValue":2935.032,"ratio":0.889},"notes":["Living value (benefit transfer, order of magnitude): 6834.36 ha of tropical forest ≈ $45,913,230/yr alive (band $13,484,192–$177,877,888, 2020 USD), ≈ $4,591,323,000 over 100 yr ($1,978,784,531 NPV @ 2 %). Source: Costanza R. et al. et al. — a floor for one kind of value, not a price."]},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-27T01:30:16.467Z","createdBy":"system:forest_loss@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","independence":"sensor","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-bol-8-14-4-2026-05-14..2026-09-26","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-60.82,-17.41,-59.49,-15.44],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-14","dateB":"2026-09-26","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.265 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 100% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.2653508479963954,"validPctA":100,"validPctB":100}}},"evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-4-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-60.82,-17.41,-59.49,-15.44],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"579105 alerts (≥ high confidence), 6834.36 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.","values":{"alerts":579105,"ha":6834.36,"high_alerts":371479,"high_ha":4384.4,"highest_alerts":207626,"highest_ha":2449.96,"living_value_100y_npv2_usd":1978784531,"living_value_100y_usd":4591323000,"living_value_usd_yr":45913230}},{"id":"gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-4-2026-06-29..2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-60.82,-17.41,-59.49,-15.44],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"579105 alerts (≥ high confidence), 6834.36 ha, 2026-06-29…2026-09-27.","values":{"alerts":579105,"ha":6834.36,"high_alerts":371479,"high_ha":4384.4,"highest_alerts":207626,"highest_ha":2449.96,"living_value_100y_npv2_usd":1978784531,"living_value_100y_usd":4591323000,"living_value_usd_yr":45913230}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07b-c560-7132-851a-bc7452d61811","findingId":"01a0df80-ad0d-72d7-b068-6be6818c1e6f","at":"2026-09-27T01:30:02.977Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"f4529eb7ffbe8a08905cb7b3184e04f4218d5949559aa9c59ebae271825786b1","kind":"narrated","text":"Velasco, Santa Cruz: 6,834 ha of forest-loss alerts in 90 days, confirmed by a sharp NDVI drop\n\nBetween 28 June and 26 September 2026, satellite alert systems logged 579105 high-confidence deforestation alerts across tile 4/4 of Velasco, Santa Cruz, Bolivia, covering 6834.36 ha in 90 days. Of these, 207626 alerts (2449.96 ha) fall in the highest-confidence class. An independent optical check — Sentinel-2 median NDVI between 14 May and 26 September, with 100% valid pixels in both composites — shows greenness falling by -0.265, consistent with canopy being removed rather than a data artefact.\n\nWhat this is not: the alerts cannot separate legal clearing, fire, storm damage, selective logging or plantation harvest from unauthorised clearing, and no cause is assigned here. The season sits under a strong El Niño (ONI 1.8), which can deepen drought stress and drive fire, both of which can mimic clearing in NDVI. Alert density here is 0.889× the surrounding 12 km ring (2608.435 vs 2935.032 alert ha per deg²), so this tile is slightly quieter than its neighbourhood, not an isolated outlier.\n\nWhat would change our mind: high-resolution imagery showing burn scars or standing dead canopy, NDVI recovery next wet season, or concession and protected-area layers reframing the change.\n\nKey numbers:\n- High-confidence alerts (90 d): 579105 [gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-4-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Area covered by alerts (ha): 6834.36 [gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-4-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Highest-confidence alert area (ha): 2449.96 [gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-4-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- NDVI change, May → Sep: -0.265 [s2-ndvi-median-bol-8-14-4-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 100 [s2-ndvi-median-bol-8-14-4-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Alert type cannot distinguish fire, storm, logging or legal clearing from unauthorised clearing.\n- Alerts lag events by about 1–2 weeks, so a burst just before 26 September is undercounted.\n- Strong El Niño conditions (ONI 1.8) can depress NDVI through drought alone.\n- Alert density is 0.889× the 12 km regional ring — below, not above, local background.\n- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can look like loss in these data.\n- Dollar figures in context notes are order-of-magnitude benefit transfers, not market prices.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"b12b3aa0a30f2ca14831817379ce35edaefb88cc60855a3b27b9c096f67c5af7","transcriptSha256":"ed8a61183a704d0c6f5426940b2426575d9f2385fe3fa59164249ec60afe92fd","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-4-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","s2-ndvi-median-bol-8-14-4-2026-05-14..2026-09-26"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07b-fa0e-7603-a6bb-cd788c3fd694","findingId":"01a0df80-ad0d-72d7-b068-6be6818c1e6f","at":"2026-09-27T01:30:16.462Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"edcb10aac0080a5dc5070641db46189f6133a52842e14beedd4234187ced6b85","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All headline figures (alerts, ha, highest-confidence subset, NDVI delta, valid-pixel %, density ratio) match the evidence and context exactly.; Narration explicitly separates confirmed alert data from causal attribution and flags fire/drought/logging/plantation as alternative explanations, matching the finding's blindSpots list.; El Niño (ONI 1.8) and the sub-unity density ratio (0.889×) are both surfaced, preventing overclaiming of anomalousness.; No natural persons are named or identifiable.; AOI is a real 'forest-hotspot/discovered' tile, not tagged control, so this is a genuine candidate for the public record rather than a test case.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T00:00:53.767Z","kind":"evidence_added","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:30:02.977Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:30:16.462Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-27T01:30:16.467Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":6,"lastEventHash":"4cdce7cfffe060e1358e8fb979315a38d24a1215d80f42f4911fbe750fe4e9f1"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df80-ad0d-727f-9185-b98ba8310b36","findingId":"01a0df80-ad0d-72d7-b068-6be6818c1e6f","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":2630,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":263,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, Velasco, Santa Cruz (Bolivia) — tile 4/4: 6834.36 ha in 90 d","summary":"579105 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 6834.36 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 0.889× its 12 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-60.82,-17.41],[-59.49,-17.41],[-59.49,-15.44],[-60.82,-15.44],[-60.82,-17.41]]]},"bbox":[-60.82,-17.41,-59.49,-15.44],"aoi":{"id":"bol-8-14-4","name":"Velasco, Santa Cruz (Bolivia) — tile 4/4","tags":["forest-hotspot","discovered","bol","bolivia","santa-cruz","velasco"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-4-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-60.82,-17.41,-59.49,-15.44],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"579105 alerts (≥ high confidence), 6834.36 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.","values":{"alerts":579105,"ha":6834.36,"high_alerts":371479,"high_ha":4384.4,"highest_alerts":207626,"highest_ha":2449.96,"living_value_100y_npv2_usd":1978784531,"living_value_100y_usd":4591323000,"living_value_usd_yr":45913230}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":12,"aoiValue":2608.435,"regionalValue":2935.032,"ratio":0.889},"notes":["Living value (benefit transfer, order of magnitude): 6834.36 ha of tropical forest ≈ $45,913,230/yr alive (band $13,484,192–$177,877,888, 2020 USD), ≈ $4,591,323,000 over 100 yr ($1,978,784,531 NPV @ 2 %). Source: Costanza R. et al. et al. — a floor for one kind of value, not a price."]},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df80-d1dd-7b81-9963-769522f8111c","findingId":"01a0df80-ad0d-72d7-b068-6be6818c1e6f","at":"2026-09-26T20:54:22.777Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":"28ea0cdc2da4de051ef40f0598bce181a609a38a86aa61bddc1d1d2b0c1fc1ce","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-bol-8-14-4-2026-05-14..2026-09-26","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-60.82,-17.41,-59.49,-15.44],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-14","dateB":"2026-09-26","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.265 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 100% / 100%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.2653508479963954,"validPctA":100,"validPctB":100}},"independence":"sensor"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e02d-9765-73e1-9711-7136e8ea6abf","findingId":"01a0df80-ad0d-72d7-b068-6be6818c1e6f","at":"2026-09-27T00:00:53.767Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":"0ff429e7c9e6f84c9a28a29b8118e122dc1a258ecd8e2d9b5462d4cacb22a418","kind":"evidence_added","evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-4-2026-06-29..2026-09-27","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-27T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-60.82,-17.41,-59.49,-15.44],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"579105 alerts (≥ high confidence), 6834.36 ha, 2026-06-29…2026-09-27.","values":{"alerts":579105,"ha":6834.36,"high_alerts":371479,"high_ha":4384.4,"highest_alerts":207626,"highest_ha":2449.96,"living_value_100y_npv2_usd":1978784531,"living_value_100y_usd":4591323000,"living_value_usd_yr":45913230}}]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07b-c560-7132-851a-bc7452d61811","findingId":"01a0df80-ad0d-72d7-b068-6be6818c1e6f","at":"2026-09-27T01:30:02.977Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"f4529eb7ffbe8a08905cb7b3184e04f4218d5949559aa9c59ebae271825786b1","kind":"narrated","text":"Velasco, Santa Cruz: 6,834 ha of forest-loss alerts in 90 days, confirmed by a sharp NDVI drop\n\nBetween 28 June and 26 September 2026, satellite alert systems logged 579105 high-confidence deforestation alerts across tile 4/4 of Velasco, Santa Cruz, Bolivia, covering 6834.36 ha in 90 days. Of these, 207626 alerts (2449.96 ha) fall in the highest-confidence class. An independent optical check — Sentinel-2 median NDVI between 14 May and 26 September, with 100% valid pixels in both composites — shows greenness falling by -0.265, consistent with canopy being removed rather than a data artefact.\n\nWhat this is not: the alerts cannot separate legal clearing, fire, storm damage, selective logging or plantation harvest from unauthorised clearing, and no cause is assigned here. The season sits under a strong El Niño (ONI 1.8), which can deepen drought stress and drive fire, both of which can mimic clearing in NDVI. Alert density here is 0.889× the surrounding 12 km ring (2608.435 vs 2935.032 alert ha per deg²), so this tile is slightly quieter than its neighbourhood, not an isolated outlier.\n\nWhat would change our mind: high-resolution imagery showing burn scars or standing dead canopy, NDVI recovery next wet season, or concession and protected-area layers reframing the change.\n\nKey numbers:\n- High-confidence alerts (90 d): 579105 [gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-4-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Area covered by alerts (ha): 6834.36 [gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-4-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Highest-confidence alert area (ha): 2449.96 [gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-4-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- NDVI change, May → Sep: -0.265 [s2-ndvi-median-bol-8-14-4-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 100 [s2-ndvi-median-bol-8-14-4-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Alert type cannot distinguish fire, storm, logging or legal clearing from unauthorised clearing.\n- Alerts lag events by about 1–2 weeks, so a burst just before 26 September is undercounted.\n- Strong El Niño conditions (ONI 1.8) can depress NDVI through drought alone.\n- Alert density is 0.889× the 12 km regional ring — below, not above, local background.\n- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can look like loss in these data.\n- Dollar figures in context notes are order-of-magnitude benefit transfers, not market prices.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"b12b3aa0a30f2ca14831817379ce35edaefb88cc60855a3b27b9c096f67c5af7","transcriptSha256":"ed8a61183a704d0c6f5426940b2426575d9f2385fe3fa59164249ec60afe92fd","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-bol-8-14-4-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","s2-ndvi-median-bol-8-14-4-2026-05-14..2026-09-26"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07b-fa0e-7603-a6bb-cd788c3fd694","findingId":"01a0df80-ad0d-72d7-b068-6be6818c1e6f","at":"2026-09-27T01:30:16.462Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"edcb10aac0080a5dc5070641db46189f6133a52842e14beedd4234187ced6b85","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All headline figures (alerts, ha, highest-confidence subset, NDVI delta, valid-pixel %, density ratio) match the evidence and context exactly.; Narration explicitly separates confirmed alert data from causal attribution and flags fire/drought/logging/plantation as alternative explanations, matching the finding's blindSpots list.; El Niño (ONI 1.8) and the sub-unity density ratio (0.889×) are both surfaced, preventing overclaiming of anomalousness.; No natural persons are named or identifiable.; AOI is a real 'forest-hotspot/discovered' tile, not tagged control, so this is a genuine candidate for the public record rather than a test case.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0e07b-fa13-7766-b228-a4566dafaeb7","findingId":"01a0df80-ad0d-72d7-b068-6be6818c1e6f","at":"2026-09-27T01:30:16.467Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"506e6c2fd72d60ab3fe6b36367121f6eb878ce267312d46f86c3b296ef48d400","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":452,"leafHash":"93470794124893c2f2bad52bb25ad5755e577dbdffcb220a07e240e23a2d569c","proof":["2bf00fe23422dab8b3929c9c0cff0af4fbd8e26c7e54635749b2323f63acd3d8","cd8d2c057192da86515fb25b4d29760eaaa061dcc3f2424a5e9826b3e7f3ca1a","f85b37737498dbb705f8a479828326b63b6f6fa5269de7637ec5b34ddcd1ee39","8ea627e22613d9d2794da12d775238c4972cb68f2c469b529dcc10d499e628d7","d53da2d9a52c42afa1145e989e67defee70d1ab136a8450be836068243b2b4c4","cfd8a9689a682dbadf13f73837442d7833d9a97eb16baacdedd92a148869879c","2ac34e8c0b554e5c34b3c90bfdddd542109474aaf07521b16dfe8be684c3edae","2334f041f7aa83a5ef6099e0c9511b6242e982238cdf9f30561e5bf0cb2526cc"],"size":474,"root":"3d5c0e5366efedaf637a782ef6bf63ddd427e2416062effeb6f59afde41a817d"}}