{"finding":{"findingId":"01a0deea-0484-7e03-bd7e-b887aad6053d","status":"published","tier":1,"rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":200,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":20,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, São Félix do Xingu (PA): 232.05 ha in 90 d","summary":"18977 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 232.05 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 0.501× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-52.4,-6.9],[-51.9,-6.9],[-51.9,-6.4],[-52.4,-6.4],[-52.4,-6.9]]]},"bbox":[-52.4,-6.9,-51.9,-6.4],"aoi":{"id":"br-sao-felix-do-xingu","name":"São Félix do Xingu (PA)","tags":["amazon","brazil","cattle-frontier"]},"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":928.2,"regionalValue":1854.333,"ratio":0.501}},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."],"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","createdAt":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-26T18:59:18.312Z","createdBy":"system:forest_loss@1.0","confirmed":{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","independence":"sensor","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-05-14..2026-09-26","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-52.4,-6.9,-51.9,-6.4],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-14","dateB":"2026-09-26","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.133 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 93% / 96%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.13307291321656778,"validPctA":93,"validPctB":96}}},"evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-52.4,-6.9,-51.9,-6.4],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"18977 alerts (≥ high confidence), 232.05 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.","values":{"alerts":18977,"ha":232.05,"high_alerts":18237,"high_ha":223,"highest_alerts":740,"highest_ha":9.05}}],"attribution":null,"narration":{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df15-dcd9-7002-b51b-3e4b12f70e11","findingId":"01a0deea-0484-7e03-bd7e-b887aad6053d","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:07.097Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"321db790a8562fd3786eae4a4b8672d0e0379720f424787c151152ffb3f36daf","kind":"narrated","text":"São Félix do Xingu: 232.05 ha of forest loss flagged in 90 days, NDVI confirms\n\nBetween 28 June and 26 September 2026, satellite alert systems logged 18977 high-confidence deforestation alerts inside the São Félix do Xingu (PA) area of interest, covering 232.05 ha. Of that, 223 ha came from high-confidence alerts and 9.05 ha from the highest-confidence class. An independent optical check backs this up: median-composite Sentinel-2 NDVI — a greenness measure — fell by -0.133 over roughly the same window, with 93% and 96% of pixels usable in the two composites, so cloud is not driving the result.\n\nWhat this is not: the alerts cannot tell legal clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging apart from unauthorised clearing, and no cause is assigned here. This is an El Niño season (ONI 1.8), when drought stress alone can lower greenness. Regrowth and harvest cycles can also mimic loss. Notably, alert density here is 0.501× that of the surrounding 25 km ring — this block is quieter than its neighbourhood.\n\nWhat would change our mind: higher-resolution imagery showing intact canopy, burn-scar mapping indicating fire, concession or protected-area layers placing the change in a managed cycle, or an NDVI rebound in the next composite.\n\nKey numbers:\n- High-confidence alerts (90 d): 18977 [gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Area flagged (ha): 232.05 [gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Highest-confidence area (ha): 9.05 [gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- NDVI change (May→Sep): -0.133 [s2-ndvi-median-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 96 [s2-ndvi-median-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Alerts lag events by about 1–2 weeks, so a recent burst may be undercounted.\n- Fire, storm damage, selective logging and legal clearing are not separable from this data alone.\n- El Niño (ONI 1.8) drought can depress NDVI without canopy removal.\n- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can resemble loss; the 25 km baseline ring only partly compensates.\n- Alert coverage is 30°N–30°S only; absence of alerts elsewhere means unmonitored, not unchanged.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"267450ddf5be61813e920fe7acaab8e892730694b4105614b982bb8e0fbd6a09","transcriptSha256":"a720d428b054f235686f0fdfd00270874769a9fa949f84f8d1a5a892cd87f973","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","s2-ndvi-median-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-05-14..2026-09-26"]},"reviews":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df16-08a3-7c62-98c6-01a84f3e82d4","findingId":"01a0deea-0484-7e03-bd7e-b887aad6053d","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:18.307Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"825ec6086a87afcd695b023185d29de6c8b55d5d4be76a9f004a3c5b403f16b0","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All cited alert and NDVI figures match the evidence values exactly, including the 232.05 ha, 18977 alerts, 223 ha/9.05 ha breakdown, and NDVI delta with valid-pixel percentages.; The narration transparently states what the data cannot show (cause of loss, El Niño drought effect on NDVI, regrowth/harvest confusion, alert lag, coverage limits), matching the finding's blindSpots list closely.; No natural person is named or identifiable in the text.; AOI tags are amazon/brazil/cattle-frontier and control=false, so this is not a control site, consistent with a live monitoring finding.","verdict":"publish"}],"notifications":[],"replies":[],"retracted":null,"history":[{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","kind":"created","status":"candidate","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","kind":"confirmed","status":"confirmed","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:59:07.097Z","kind":"narrated","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-opus-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:59:18.307Z","kind":"reviewed","status":"confirmed","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"},{"at":"2026-09-26T18:59:18.312Z","kind":"status_changed","status":"published","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5"}],"eventCount":5,"lastEventHash":"06aa8dae5e664368c1a1d18a0631c4e80b47b47d301b41ec5882a284591dd929"},"events":[{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0deea-0485-7b1a-823e-5f5a577d69d3","findingId":"01a0deea-0484-7e03-bd7e-b887aad6053d","at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":null,"kind":"created","rule":{"name":"forest_loss","version":"1.0","params":{"days":90,"minAlerts":200,"minConfidence":"high","minHa":20,"minValidPct":60,"ndviDrop":0.1}},"title":"Forest loss, São Félix do Xingu (PA): 232.05 ha in 90 d","summary":"18977 GFW integrated deforestation alerts (≥ high confidence) covering 232.05 ha between 2026-06-28 and 2026-09-26; AOI alert density is 0.501× its 25 km neighbourhood. Awaiting optical confirmation.","tier":1,"geometry":{"type":"Polygon","coordinates":[[[-52.4,-6.9],[-51.9,-6.9],[-51.9,-6.4],[-52.4,-6.4],[-52.4,-6.9]]]},"bbox":[-52.4,-6.9,-51.9,-6.4],"aoi":{"id":"br-sao-felix-do-xingu","name":"São Félix do Xingu (PA)","tags":["amazon","brazil","cattle-frontier"]},"observedAt":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","evidence":[{"id":"gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","kind":"alert","source":"gfw-integrated-alerts","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","href":"https://data-api.globalforestwatch.org/dataset/gfw_integrated_alerts","method":{"name":"forest_alerts","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-52.4,-6.9,-51.9,-6.4],"days":90,"minConfidence":"high"}},"summary":"18977 alerts (≥ high confidence), 232.05 ha, 2026-06-28…2026-09-26.","values":{"alerts":18977,"ha":232.05,"high_alerts":18237,"high_ha":223,"highest_alerts":740,"highest_ha":9.05}}],"context":{"enso":{"phase":"El Niño","oni":1.8},"events":[],"baseline":{"metric":"alert ha per deg²","ringKm":25,"aoiValue":928.2,"regionalValue":1854.333,"ratio":0.501}},"blindSpots":["Coverage is 30°N–30°S only — zero alerts outside the tropics means 'not monitored', not 'no loss'.","Cannot distinguish legal clearing, fire, storm damage and selective logging from illegal clearing; attribution needs concession/protected-area layers (M3).","Alerts lag reality by ~1–2 weeks; a burst just before the sweep is undercounted.","Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles look like loss; the baseline ring only partly compensates.","Persistent cloud can delay optical confirmation for months (SAR-only RADD alerts stay 'candidate')."]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0deea-129f-7784-aa24-48889d55a0fa","findingId":"01a0deea-0484-7e03-bd7e-b887aad6053d","at":"2026-09-26T18:11:02.539Z","actor":"system:forest_loss@1.0","prev":"44eff12ab1fe2755ab92b481337745f10b7ea730f7c5fe68c84748030820d41b","kind":"confirmed","signal":{"id":"s2-ndvi-median-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-05-14..2026-09-26","kind":"scene","source":"sentinel-2-l2a","datetime":"2026-09-26T00:00:00Z","method":{"name":"eo_compare","version":"1.0","params":{"bbox":[-52.4,-6.9,-51.9,-6.4],"composite":"median","dateA":"2026-05-14","dateB":"2026-09-26","index":"NDVI","width":256}},"summary":"Median-composite NDVI changed -0.133 (2026-05-14 → 2026-09-26); valid pixels 93% / 96%. Scenes: [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object], [object Object]","values":{"deltaNdvi":-0.13307291321656778,"validPctA":93,"validPctB":96}},"independence":"sensor"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df15-dcd9-7002-b51b-3e4b12f70e11","findingId":"01a0deea-0484-7e03-bd7e-b887aad6053d","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:07.097Z","actor":"model:claude-opus-5","prev":"321db790a8562fd3786eae4a4b8672d0e0379720f424787c151152ffb3f36daf","kind":"narrated","text":"São Félix do Xingu: 232.05 ha of forest loss flagged in 90 days, NDVI confirms\n\nBetween 28 June and 26 September 2026, satellite alert systems logged 18977 high-confidence deforestation alerts inside the São Félix do Xingu (PA) area of interest, covering 232.05 ha. Of that, 223 ha came from high-confidence alerts and 9.05 ha from the highest-confidence class. An independent optical check backs this up: median-composite Sentinel-2 NDVI — a greenness measure — fell by -0.133 over roughly the same window, with 93% and 96% of pixels usable in the two composites, so cloud is not driving the result.\n\nWhat this is not: the alerts cannot tell legal clearing, fire, storm damage or selective logging apart from unauthorised clearing, and no cause is assigned here. This is an El Niño season (ONI 1.8), when drought stress alone can lower greenness. Regrowth and harvest cycles can also mimic loss. Notably, alert density here is 0.501× that of the surrounding 25 km ring — this block is quieter than its neighbourhood.\n\nWhat would change our mind: higher-resolution imagery showing intact canopy, burn-scar mapping indicating fire, concession or protected-area layers placing the change in a managed cycle, or an NDVI rebound in the next composite.\n\nKey numbers:\n- High-confidence alerts (90 d): 18977 [gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Area flagged (ha): 232.05 [gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- Highest-confidence area (ha): 9.05 [gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26]\n- NDVI change (May→Sep): -0.133 [s2-ndvi-median-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n- Valid pixels, later composite (%): 96 [s2-ndvi-median-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-05-14..2026-09-26]\n\nConfidence: medium\nCaveats:\n- Alerts lag events by about 1–2 weeks, so a recent burst may be undercounted.\n- Fire, storm damage, selective logging and legal clearing are not separable from this data alone.\n- El Niño (ONI 1.8) drought can depress NDVI without canopy removal.\n- Regrowth and plantation harvest cycles can resemble loss; the 25 km baseline ring only partly compensates.\n- Alert coverage is 30°N–30°S only; absence of alerts elsewhere means unmonitored, not unchanged.","model":{"id":"claude-opus-5","provider":"anthropic"},"promptSha256":"267450ddf5be61813e920fe7acaab8e892730694b4105614b982bb8e0fbd6a09","transcriptSha256":"a720d428b054f235686f0fdfd00270874769a9fa949f84f8d1a5a892cd87f973","evidenceRefs":["gfw-integrated-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-06-28..2026-09-26","s2-ndvi-median-br-sao-felix-do-xingu-2026-05-14..2026-09-26"]},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df16-08a3-7c62-98c6-01a84f3e82d4","findingId":"01a0deea-0484-7e03-bd7e-b887aad6053d","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:18.307Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"825ec6086a87afcd695b023185d29de6c8b55d5d4be76a9f004a3c5b403f16b0","kind":"reviewed","decision":"approve","tier":1,"note":"All cited alert and NDVI figures match the evidence values exactly, including the 232.05 ha, 18977 alerts, 223 ha/9.05 ha breakdown, and NDVI delta with valid-pixel percentages.; The narration transparently states what the data cannot show (cause of loss, El Niño drought effect on NDVI, regrowth/harvest confusion, alert lag, coverage limits), matching the finding's blindSpots list closely.; No natural person is named or identifiable in the text.; AOI tags are amazon/brazil/cattle-frontier and control=false, so this is not a control site, consistent with a live monitoring finding.","verdict":"publish"},{"v":1,"eventId":"01a0df16-08a8-75b7-ad51-216347114ab8","findingId":"01a0deea-0484-7e03-bd7e-b887aad6053d","at":"2026-09-26T18:59:18.312Z","actor":"model:claude-sonnet-5","prev":"4f36ce274958a8c36146612f4330d4da5914510f34814a3be22e6f7130075c18","kind":"status_changed","from":"confirmed","to":"published","reason":"autonomous publish: narrated by model:claude-opus-5, reviewed by model:claude-sonnet-5 (policy 2026-09-26-autonomous)","gates":{"narratedBy":"model:claude-opus-5","reviewedBy":["model:claude-sonnet-5"],"policy":"2026-09-26-autonomous"}}],"inclusion":{"index":14,"leafHash":"a0e5d05829d5b9a7d175f2fcc056bc5cb37c2283f7b007e0e8886c36e783f4e3","proof":["1e611eff0173e26ac4ddb44745a44b6c640dd39a5e6140a128a512256b97abc7","3fd4e2b4cab4c16e695df31947d9d7e4ed7a376cee835d9b3936c7357ef03e18","401048d1bf40798f07496286641f8cb62e8a3d4bf5582987af3fbcd0526da7a4","26fb30453e28c43d71f1119e5e1add72de6b3c28c1202a557be9ab963856f5d7","39fdc31209a3e868896af0b700ab7bfb246d5b718dcc5ae8040e8f1af02cc9e9","0302bcdf8d6bb623cb8928d22b0ff4e64a73a5a52a81857d508cf26e1f25b3b7","75fd50de0c9b3fe611e59afb656c3ca6773466bcefa237da18aa9a99aca9f0d0","05046f78c3a46031098f9c3c9786c51df89f43d7fad6e64f7ef56b1223e6a01a"],"size":164,"root":"dee55129d59500208cbd618b2eb9683ec760a3615c26b3a57a3469f08aff9240"}}